This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Bookmakers are slowly moving Premier League totals lower as mentioned last week. In last season's Gameweek 38, every match had an implied total over three goals. In Gameweek 1, three matches were below three implied goals and four of them hit that mark last week.
Ahead of Gameweek 3, five matches have an implied total below three and this is about where the number will likely be throughout the season. Matches involving Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham will likely hover at or above three implied goals all season.
I still think there's a slight edge in betting unders after I capitalized on Liverpool/Brentford and Aston Villa/Arsenal last week. That doesn't mean to blindly bet unders, but if the number is right, keep taking advantage.
Want more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches.
Record: 2-1. Up $110 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Fulham at Ipswich Town
Fulham race to 7 corners against Ipswich Town +165
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I was initially going to bet on Ipswich Town corners, but I didn't have enough reasons to do it. They weren't good at accruing corners last season and I wouldn't be surprised if they were last in the league this season in that category. That leads me to the other side.
Unless Ipswich have incredible home-field advantage that makes opponents incompetent, I think Fulham should easily reach five corners in this match. Moreso, I think they'll struggle to get an opening goal, which should mean more corners. That's what happened in Ipswich's home opener when Liverpool didn't score until the 60th minute and reached 10 corners for the match.
While I think Ipswich can get a point from this spot, I'm not sure they'll dictate play. Expect another high-cross match from Andreas Pereira, as Fulham near 10 corners, assuming they don't bag a goal early.
EPL Best Bets for Southampton at Brentford
SGP: Brentford double chance + each team over 3.5 corners = +120
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This feels like a match in which Southampton could steal points. On the surface, Brentford are at home, but they aren't a fully dominant team and given how Southampton have started, this is a spot they could surprise. Still, I don't think Brentford will lose, as they like to push hard at home in the early minutes and that could lead to an early goal
Southampton's overall quality home against Nottingham Forest was worrying in addition to them not getting corners, but this feels like a bounce-back spot, at least in terms of set pieces. They scored five midweek and maybe have some confidence flowing after that result.
While I think goals could still be hard to come by for both teams, I think it'll play fairly open and that usually leads to corners both ways.
EPL Best Bets for Crystal Palace at Chelsea
SGP: Chelsea under 2.5 goals + Palace under 1.5 goals = +105
Last week's 6-2 result is fresh in everyone's minds and that's usually when I pivot the other way, though Thursday's result at Servette also happened. The Wolves win was a perfect culmination for Chelsea, who scored six goals on 14 shots with most of them being on the counter. It's unlikely Crystal Palace will play into their hands like Wolverhampton did, especially with this being at Stamford Bridge.
Without Michael Olise and Joachim Andersen, this isn't the same Palace team that closed last season, but they should set up a little more defensively in this contest. After having the majority of the ball the last two matches, it's expected Chelsea could come close to 60-percent possession in this match.
Unlike that Wolves match, I think this could turn into one of those frustrating games in which Chelsea struggle to hit the back of the net. Oliver Glasner is unlikely to take the same approach as Wolves and their best route is likely to sit back and then score on the counter themselves through Jean-Philippe Mateta and Eberechi Eze.
Chelsea's back line has been bad, which is the worrying part, but I think it's reasonable to bet on Chelsea not to surpass two goals.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 3
- Fulham race to 7 corners against Ipswich Town +165
- SGP: Brentford double chance + each team over 3.5 corners = +120
- SGP: Chelsea under 2.5 goals + Palace under 1.5 goals = +105
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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