This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Sometimes the international break is good. Sometimes not so much. While this turned into a fade-my-bet article, I was seeing the board clearly for Kits & Wagers, going 10-2 in my bets over the last three gameweeks. Some say it's impossible to have success both writing and podcasting, but I'm here to defy the odds.
Looking for more more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where we Adam and Chris dive into three matchups, including Manchester City against Arsenal.
Record: 37-55-2. Down $1,267 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for West Ham United at Newcastle United
Newcastle to beat West Ham -125
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I've been watching the odds for this match during the break and they've jumped up and down. Early in the week, Newcastle were -110 and as of writing, they're -125 across the board. They've had their struggles and injury issues, but this is a perfect spot to rebound following back-to-back away losses to Chelsea and Manchester City.
A new injury to Sven Botman is worrying, but Jamaal Lascelles is plenty experienced and the addition of previously injured guys like Joe Willock and Jacob Murphy helps the attack. Most notably, West Ham won't have their top defensive midfielder Edson Alvarez to break up the midfield. James Ward-Prowse will likely take his place, but he was benched recently for a reason. If Michail Antonio is out, it could also mean a start for both Ward-Prowse and Kalvin Phillips.
If that's the case, I'd be even more in on Newcastle, as Phillips hasn't shown Premier League ability since joining West Ham after an extended run on the sidelines at Man City. At close to even odds, Newcastle are hard to pass up on the moneyline.
EPL Best Bets for Burnley at Chelsea
SGP: Chelsea to beat Burnley and over 3.5 goals +150
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It seems like there's some confidence in the Chelsea camp, at least that's what it looks like from the outside. They've scored multiple goals in each of their last four matches, FA Cup included. If you throw out the random home loss against Wolves, they've won their last five home matches.
Burnley are coming off a couple successful matches, but they were far from easy despite leading by two goals in each of them. I think Chelsea's attack is clicking and no matter what Burnley do, they'll be at a disadvantage defensively. Even worse for Burnley is that top goalscorer David Fofana is ineligible as part of his loan.
I'm betting on another multi-goal Chelsea performance, something I never thought I'd do this season. I like them to win with the over, but Chelsea over 2.5 goals at +105 is also an option. If you want to get a bit crazy and go with the assumption Chelsea will score goals and not accrue corners, I kind of like Burnley race to three corners +310 and five corners +550.
I also like Chelsea to win and both teams to score at +165.
EPL Best Bets for Wolverhampton at Aston Villa
Under 2.5 goals between Aston Villa and Wolves +135
At full strength, these teams played to 1-1 earlier in the season. That doesn't mean much, but it's at least a positive historical result to back my under 2.5 goals bet for this one. In their last match without John McGinn, Villa managed .66 xG from 13 shots and needed a 79th-minute equalizer from Nicolo Zaniolo. Playing at home, they're always in play for a massive performance, but I think their injuries will prevent that from happening.
Similarly, Wolves don't have some of their best attacking pieces and lost against Coventry City in their match before the break. I expect Wolves to take a more defensive approach given their lack of regulars up front and that could work against a team lacking McGinn and probably Jacob Ramsey.
I initially went to corners for this matchup, but over 10.5 is -130 as of writing and I'm not touching that. I don't think either team will want to get too exposed in the back, which doesn't help either of them, as they've both shown excellent counterattacking ability throughout the season. Unfortunately, injuries may derail that from working.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 30
- Newcastle to beat West Ham -125
- SGP: Chelsea to beat Burnley and over 3.5 goals +150
- Under 2.5 goals between Aston Villa and Wolves +135
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
