This article is part of our Match of the Week series.
Luton Town and Nottingham Forest offered an exciting bottom-four battle Saturday with both clubs riding streaks of momentum throughout the game as it ended 1-1. They end the season series drawing both contests, as their match in October ended in a 2-2 stalemate. Most notably, after the match, there was some movement in the table despite the draw, as Nottingham moved to 18th due to a four-point deduction for breaching FA sustainability rules, dropping them to 21 points, while Luton swapped spots to go to 17th with 22 points.
Starting XIs
Luton Town came into the match with the same 3-4-2-1 they have become accustomed to this season. In contrast, Nottingham returned to the 4-2-3-1 they have mainly used since hiring manager Nuno Espirito Santo after playing more defensive against Brighton the prior weekend.
Nottingham made multiple changes, first with Willy Boly coming into the backline. Anthony Elanga returned to the XI in more of an attacking look from the last match, while Ibrahim Sangare got his first start since December over both Danilo and Nicolas Dominguez.
Luton only made one change, as they are limited in options due to a plethora of injuries, with Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu replacing Daiki Hashioka.
Match Facts
First Half
Early on, both teams preferred to play out of possession, prioritizing their shape instead of always moving forward. However, the game quickly became a battle of questionable calls, poor disciplined passing and streaks of momentum, creating an exciting back-and-forth tilt.
Nottingham Forest presented a more defensive tactic than seen in the past from manager Nuno Espirito Santo, as they looked to control the match using a disciplined style of play in a contest he deemed "a final" for his club. Since he took over as manager, the Portuguese coach has gone with more of a possession-based plan, trying to work up the field with overloads and using the extra player to link passes into the box. In this match, it was more of a disciplined counter tactic, sitting back when defending and waiting for their chances to go forward on the break, attempting to keep numbers in the midfield at all times against the speedy Luton Town team.
They still used the overload a couple of times throughout the match when they had time on the ball after a Luton clearance but prioritized keeping their shape and building up the play from long balls to the final third. The vocal point was utilizing Morgan Gibbs-White as a target man on the edge of the box, looking to create quick one-two passes outside to Anthony Elanga or Divock Origi before crossing in search of Chris Wood or using the quick touches to find runners into the box.
This worked to perfection in the 34th minute, as a short cross from Gibbs-White found a reaching Wood to notch the first goal of the contest, giving Nottingham a 1-0 lead throughout the rest of the half.
They also attacked down the flanks frequently, trying to have Origi and Elanga catch out the Luton wing-backs when they were too high up the pitch, allowing space down the side for the wingers to cut in and challenge the center-backs or try a long shot.
Defensively, the main focus was also on their shape, shifting to more of 4-1-4-1 with Sangare sitting right in front of the backline playing as a sweeper. This would create a block in the midfield, making it difficult for Luton to break into the final third when building up from the back, forcing them to mostly attack on the break, which wasn't a problem for the Hatters as that is how they usually prefer to move forward.
However, this tactic made it much more challenging to get going the other way for Nottingham, being left with too many numbers near their box, giving few options for an outlet pass forward, especially with Luton constantly pressing after possession was lost, making for a more timid approach from Nottingham.
Rob Edwards led Luton into the match with the same shape and tactics he had used much of the season, unable to change much with nine first-team players out injured. They continued with their primarily defensive setup, allowing pressure into their half while being comfortable on the back foot with the focus around their shape, while using strength, speed and pure athleticism of his players to fuel his strategy.
When setting up defensively, the team would almost form more of an unconventional back six, having Mpanzu slip deeper into the back line, just further back than Sangare would for Nottingham. Alfie Doughty and Chiedozie Ogbene then dropped back on the flanks to enclose the back three. They would press a bit more once their shape was in place, using high energy and intensity to force poor passes from Nottingham due to Luton's players constantly stepping up to engulf the opposing player on the ball.
This would prove decent at points, but the defense still became a bit leaky, allowing six shots and three big chances in the first half, which could be blamed on Issa Kabore's move to the center of the defense. He allowed too much space to attack more than a few times, most likely due to him being used to pushing up on the wing when looking to break on a counter, as he is a true wing-back at heart.
Their attacking presence was almost entirely based on the counter in the first half despite controlling more of the possession, constantly looking to make the long ball forward, hoping to find a runner through when Nottingham had numbers committed. Most of these long balls would come from the defense or goalkeeper to start the match, though they would mainly just result in a turnover, seeing zero big chances in the first 45, with three of their four shots coming from outside the box. They would still control the ball around midfield to slow the game, but that also usually resulted in nothing, with Nottingham having the slight edge in the midfield superiority.
However, possibly the most crucial piece of Luton's attack was their press on heavy touches or after possession lost, making it difficult for Nottingham to get the ball out of their half, leading to Luton's advantage in possession.
They finished the half looking to have scored and equalized the match in the 40th minute via Teden Mengi, but VAR overturned it due to a handball.
Luton looked to be the stronger team throughout the first half despite the deficit with Nottingham appearing to be comfortable in very few spots during the first 45, while Luton controlled 59 percent possession. However, Nottingham did seem to be the more crucial team in possession with three big chances, six shots and 1.09 xG, compared to Luton's zero, four and 0.14, respectively.
Second Half
Forest came out sitting even more defensive and timid in the second half despite their success shaping out more chances on net than Luton in the first half, as they looked to put the game on ice by sitting back.
They defended mostly the same, keeping the same formation and continuing to sit back and allowing pressure into their half. The difference was in their movement after gaining possession, as they prefered to pass the ball around the midfield and backline before booting it forward, looking to control the ball as much as possible, but this continued to be a struggle with Luton's press.
Luton provided a slightly more tame approach, seeming to move away from the long balls a little more after the minimal success in the first half and instead trying to hold the ball, like Nottingham, with much more disciplined passing involved. They also started to look down the flanks more, despite Alfie Doughty being forced off at the break due ot injury. They got the ball wide, mostly to Ogbene before looking for Tahith Chong, Ross Barkley and Carlton Morris, either in or on the edge of the box.
The Hatters had most of the momentum until about the 70th minute. That's when Nottingham started to go into full defensive mode, as Wood was forced off with injury and he was replaced by Felipe, who would then form a five-back by joining the defense. That said, it seemed to go in the opposite direction. Luton started to tire out after their starting XI had played in three matches in a week, resulting in a 10-minute push from Nottingham where they came close to scoring on multiple occasions.
The tides would then turn again around the 80th minute with the Hatters seeming to have found a second wind like they have numerous times this season. Playing at Kenilworth Road always gives them another push and it led to a late equalizer in the 89th minute from a club mainstay in substitute Luke Berry. The goal came from a corner, combining Nottingham's struggles with Luton's most significant success, as Nottingham has allowed a league-worst 19 goals on set pieces while Luton has scored 13 goals off set pieces, sitting third in the lead.
Following the goal, Luton stayed on the front foot for most of extra time, though they didn't carve out any crucial chances with the match ending 1-1.
Without looking at the stat sheet, Luton seemed to be the clearcut, stronger team Saturday, appearing to control more of the match, which proved true with their 60 percent possession. On the contrary, Nottingham dominated when on the attack, posting five big chances,16 shots and 1.98 xG, in contrast to Luton's four, 10 and 0.58 xG, respectively. Both teams had multiple chances but Nottingham's were much better opportunities. Still, this is without mentioning two of the most crucial points of the match, as the Hatters made two goal-line clearances in the 32nd and 52nd minute to hold Nottingham to one goal, ultimately saving the contest for the home side.
Man of the Match
This week was a challenge to choose for the award, as neither team had a player stick out, so I will go with the typical answer in Gibbs-White. He was the centerpiece of Nottingham's movement Saturday, controlling the attack while posting a great stat line of four shots, four chances created and seven passes into the final third. His playmaking caused headaches for Luton's defense, as he also assisted on Nottingham's lone goal of the match.
Upcoming Fixtures
Nottingham have pretty tame schedule ahead as they try to stay out of the relegation zone, only facing two teams in the top half of the table. They host Crystal Palace and Fulham following the international break, two winnable spots. The competition then ramps up against Tottenham and Wolves before ending with Everton.
Luton could see their relegation odds increase, ending March against Tottenham before facing first-place Arsenal, both away from home. They receive somewhat of a break against Bournemouth before heading to Manchester City and ending the next five matches against Brentford, with each game holding huge implications toward the end of the season.
Looking Ahead
Both clubs have the same goal ahead of themselves, as they are fighting with each other to stay in the top flight of English football.
Luton received a godsend with Nottingham's point deduction, now outside the relegation zone by a point. However, they still have to be wary with their gauntlet of a schedule on the horizon, as they are far from safe and could see themselves relegated by the end of the season if they don't get positive results in future matches.
Nottingham's situation got immensely more hectic following their point deduction, as they now have to fight out of the relegation zone.
Gameweek 30 Preview
Due to the international break, it's two weeks until the Premier League returns Luckily, a return to play means the all-so-important tilt between Manchester City and Arsenal. They sit just one point apart in the table with a win from City possibly propelling them over first-place Arsenal and into the top spot in the table, depending on what happens in the Liverpool and Brighton match that takes place just hours before.
