This article is part of our Sorare series.
The MLS postseason is finally here after some tremendous drama on Decision Day. Houston's late winner gave LAFC the Western Conference regular-season crown, and Atlanta United defied all odds and leapfrogged into the postseason with some VAR help. Inter Miami set the single-season points record on the back of Lionel Messi's hat trick off the bench. It was a scintillating Saturday of late drama which precedes a quick turnaround for midweek Wild Card matches.
If you're unaware of the playoff structure in MLS, it's wonky. These two matches are essentially play-in games to get into the first round where the top eight teams from the Eastern and Western Conference play a best-of-three series. LAFC await the winner of Portland and Vancouver, while Inter Miami will take on the winner of CF Montreal and Atlanta United. The rest of the way, matches are a one-and-done traditional knockout style with the better regular season team hosting.
MLS Playoff Schedule
Wild Card: October 22 & October 23 (GW 20)
First Round (Best of 3): October 25-TBD (Starts GW 21)
Conference Semifinals: November 23 & November 24 (After International Break)
Conference Finals: November 30 & December 1
MLS Cup: December 7
Sorare GW 20 // MLS Wild Card Matches
Here are the implied odds for each matchup.
- Portland Timbers 52.4% vs. Vancouver Whitecaps 30.3%
- CF Montreal 43.5% vs. Atlanta United 35.7%
#8 CF Montreal 43.5% vs. #9 Atlanta United 35.7%
CF Montreal 2024 Home Record: 8-5-4, 28 GF, 23 GA (12th)
Atlanta United 2024 Away Record: 4-6-7, 16 GF, 22 GA (16th)
Season Series: CF Montreal won 2-0
- July 13: CF Montreal 1-0 (Stade Saputo)
- August 2: CF Montreal 2-1 (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
Montreal got hot at the right time, winning their last four home matches and losing only once in their final seven. First-year coach Laurent Courtois found his preferred starting XI and rode them down the final stretch, leaving big-priced signings Matias Coccaro, Kwadwo Opoku, and Designated Player Victor Wanyama on the bench. They face another in-form team in Atlanta United that only have a loss to Montreal on the books in the last six matches.
Montreal's cast iron goal bell, the "North Star," should ring just enough to earn a date with Inter Miami in the Eastern Conference First Round.
Prediction: CF Montreal 2-1
#9 Portland Timbers 52.4% vs. #8 Vancouver Whitecaps 30.3%
Portland 2024 Home Record: 9-5-3, 39 GF, 25 GA (8th)
Vancouver 2024 Away Record: 7-4-6, 26 GF, 23 GA (9th)
Season Series: Tied 1-1-1
- March 29: Vancouver 3-2 (BC Place)
- June 22: Portland 2-0 (Providence Park)
- September 28: Draw 1-1 (BC Place)
Supercross > MLS Playoffs. Vancouver are the higher seed and earned home-field advantage. However, a Supercross event is scheduled for this weekend at BC Place and they needed to bring in all the dirt to prepare during the week.
The Vancouver Whitecaps confirm if they finish as the No. 8 seed, they cannot host the wildcard game (Tue/Wed). The game would be played at the No. 9 seed's stadium.
BC Place is hosting a Supercross event on Sat. Looks like set up for it means they can't host.
Just... brutal. pic.twitter.com/nw32nkVHZB
— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) October 18, 2024
That means the match will take place at Providence Park in Portland, giving Portland a considerable advantage. It's a crazy situation that would only happen in Major League Soccer.
Unlike in the Eastern Conference, both of these teams limped into the playoffs. Portland are winless in their last five matches with four draws and a loss. Vancouver have the poorer form of the two, winless in their last six matches with five losses and a draw.
The quality of Evander and the Portland attack will be enough to edge Ryan Gauld and company in a close finish that could go to penalties.
Prediction: Portland 2-1
Top Goalkeeper Options
- Jonathan Sirois (MTL) $10.94
Montreal are favored at home and have roughly a 20-percent chance to keep a clean sheet. Sirois hasn't scored below 50 points in his last five matches, making him the safest option on this slate.
- Brad Guzan (ATL) $1.57
From a sheer volume perspective, the 40-year-old has the highest upside on the slate. Guzan has topped 20 AA in five of his last nine matches. While there's some risk with Guzan retiring at the end of the season, he has a team option that I believe Atlanta will pick up after seeing Josh Cohen in net. Long live Bradley Edwin Guzan.
Secondary Options:
Maxime Crepeau (POR) $2.95—He should start over James Pantemis, but Pantemis' good form raises some doubts. I don't see Portland keeping a clean sheet and AA alone isn't enough for Crepeau.
Yohei Takaoka (VAN) $2.61—This is similar to Crepeau's situation, although Takaoka wasn't on international duty when Isaac Boehmer started the season's final match. He should start, but I'd prefer either goalkeeper from the Eastern Conference Wild Card match. Last time at Providence Park, Takaoka was held to 44.7 SO5 points and I have a similar projection for this match.
Top Defender Options
- George Campbell (MTL) $0.81
Campbell has been in great form since returning from a slight injury in late August.
With 30-plus AA in his last two matches, Campbell is the best pairing with Sirois (Joel Waterman has a nice floor but lacks the upside).
- Juan David Mosquera (POR) $1.35
Mosquera is the risk/reward option for all the thrill seekers. With Mosquera, you are either going to get 80 points or 25 with negative-10 AA. Mosquera could be worth rolling the dice on a short slate with limited options.
Secondary Options: Joel Waterman (MTL) $0.50; Brooks Lennon (ATL) $0.54; Pedro Amador (ATL) $2.00; Dario Zuparic (POR) $0.53; Ranko Veselinovic (VAN) $0.53
Top Midfielder Options
- Evander (POR) $14.30
Evander is the top play of the slate and it's not even close. With Portland hosting Vancouver, he could be one of the highest scorers on the platform, not just MLS. You have to go back to late March for the last time Evander didn't score 60-plus points in a home start.
- Ryan Gauld (VAN) $3.32
While most players in MLS score better at home, that's not the case for Gauld this season. Gauld averages 67.0 on the road and 64.4 at home.
Gauld could very well be the second-highest scorer on the slate behind Evander. I don't see Portland keeping a clean sheet and Gauld will likely contribute a goal or an assist.
Secondary Options: Caden Clark (MTL) $2.00; Aleksey Miranchuk (ATL) $3.20
Top Forward Options
- Josef Martinez (MTL) $0.87
Martinez is finding ways to score at will over his last four starts. Six goals in four games makes it look like he's turned the clock back to his 2018 MVP/Golden Boot season. While that was a bit of a hyperbole, he grades out as the most likely forward to bag a goal, therefore being the top forward option on a short slate.
- Jonathan Rodriguez (POR) $1.93
Santiago Moreno should be available, but there is still some question about whether he's fit to play more than 30 minutes. Rodriguez isn't in the best form, scoring 34.1, 39 and 46.7 in his last three matches. On a short slate, he's one of the better options at forward.
Secondary Options: Felipe Mora (POR) $0.73; Brian White (VAN) $0.65
Favorite Lineup
Courtesy of the SorareData Concept Builder
