This article is part of our Daily Fantasy Soccer Cheat Sheet series.
Sunday's two-game slate includes two absolutely massive favorites, and if you're sitting there thinking "well, of course, the United States is playing," just know that, yes, they are huge favorites, but they aren't the biggest.
Sweden get that tag Sunday, as they are -10,000 to win against Thailand on DraftKings Sportsbook, who famously lost 13-0 to the United States earlier this week, while the Americans are "only" -5,000 against Chile. Sweden is also expected to score quite a bit, as the over 5.5 goals is -125, while the same total for the U.S. v. Chile match is +150. Given their situation, plus how bad they were in the first match, it's really tough to justify taking anyone from Thailand in cash games or GPPs on DraftKings. Sunisa Srangthaisong was their highest-scoring player on DraftKings, hitting 6.50 thanks to four tackles won, three interceptions and one foul drawn, while no other player eclipsed 4.00; oh, and their goalkeeper finished at minus-11.00 despite making seven saves. FanDuel was a different story, as Srangthaisong produced an excellent 23.40 while Natthakarn Chinwong ended on 28.60 thanks, in part, to 15 clearances and three blocked shots. Fellow defenders Ainon Phancha, who actually lined up in midfield, and Warunee Phetwiset both nearly hit 16.00, and at $10 on Sunday's slate, they should be viable again. Even if you tried to figure out who takes their set pieces, they didn't win a single corner against the U.S. and they were outshot 40 to two. If you're
Sunday's two-game slate includes two absolutely massive favorites, and if you're sitting there thinking "well, of course, the United States is playing," just know that, yes, they are huge favorites, but they aren't the biggest.
Sweden get that tag Sunday, as they are -10,000 to win against Thailand on DraftKings Sportsbook, who famously lost 13-0 to the United States earlier this week, while the Americans are "only" -5,000 against Chile. Sweden is also expected to score quite a bit, as the over 5.5 goals is -125, while the same total for the U.S. v. Chile match is +150. Given their situation, plus how bad they were in the first match, it's really tough to justify taking anyone from Thailand in cash games or GPPs on DraftKings. Sunisa Srangthaisong was their highest-scoring player on DraftKings, hitting 6.50 thanks to four tackles won, three interceptions and one foul drawn, while no other player eclipsed 4.00; oh, and their goalkeeper finished at minus-11.00 despite making seven saves. FanDuel was a different story, as Srangthaisong produced an excellent 23.40 while Natthakarn Chinwong ended on 28.60 thanks, in part, to 15 clearances and three blocked shots. Fellow defenders Ainon Phancha, who actually lined up in midfield, and Warunee Phetwiset both nearly hit 16.00, and at $10 on Sunday's slate, they should be viable again. Even if you tried to figure out who takes their set pieces, they didn't win a single corner against the U.S. and they were outshot 40 to two. If you're looking for positives, they put 100 percent of their shots on target.
The Swedes didn't get nearly as easy an opponent in their first match, but that didn't stop Kosovare Asllani from having an excellent game, as she had one goal on her only shot, one assist on six chances created, eight crosses and five fouls drawn, eventually finishing with 29.50 fantasy points in a 2-0 win. She took five of their 11 corners while Magdalena Eriksson took the others, helping her to 10 crosses and four chances created. Eriksson is shockingly priced at just $3,200 on DraftKings and will be extremely owned because of it. The anytime goal scorer odds for the Swedish attackers are pretty crazy, as Asllani's are -265 while Fridolina Rolfo's and Stina Blackstenius' are -455, and Sofia Jakobsson's are -375. Blackstenius was actually pretty poor against Chile before getting pulled in the 65th minute, with substitute Anna Anvegard picking up an assist on one of her three chances created. This match could get really ugly, and while there is a natural inclination by many people to side with the Americans after their dominant performance, Sweden can beat up on Thailand too (though maybe not as much).
Chile only lost 2-0 to Sweden, but they were outshot 24 to five, out-cornered 11 to zero and conceded 69 percent possession; now they get to face the no. 1 ranked team in the world. Karen Araya was a solid contributor in that match, finishing with 8.00 fantasy points on DraftKings and 18,40 on FanDuel because she put one of two shots on target, won four tackles and intercepted two passes. Francisca Lara was somewhat owned because of her expected role in the attack, and while she finished with a solid 6.00 DraftKings points on a $3,500 salary, there's pretty much no upside to consider in Sunday's match. Ultimately you're relying on defensive floor points from players like Javiera Toro, who returned 6.75 fantasy points on a $2,800 salary, but again, there's no upside. Given the total lack of attacking upside expected from the Chileans, of which only Yanara Aedo is priced more than $3,900 on DraftKings, it's really tough to get excited for any GPP-helping score other than a cheap salary to fit in more Swedes and Americans.
And speaking of the Americans, oooh boy, where do we start? The obvious answer is Alex Morgan, who had a record-breaking fantasy performance by scoring five goals on 10 shots (six on target) and three assists on three chances created, finishing with 84.50 fantasy points on DraftKings and a comical 137.60 on FanDuel. Ridiculously, nine players scored double-digit fantasy points on DraftKings, including substitutes Christen Press, Mallory Pugh and Carli Lloyd. Megan Rapinoe, who finished with 37.75 and Tobin Heath split corners, with the latter ending up as a colossal disappointment by scoring just 4.25 fantasy points in 57 minutes. There were plenty of lineups that decided to pay up for the triumvirate of Morgan, Rapinoe and Heath, and while the first two more than paid off their salaries, Heath pretty much killed many fantasy entries. Heath is an absolutely dominant player, but she's pretty dependent on getting on the scoresheet, something she doesn't do nearly as often as the others, at least not in terms of total volume. While she still has excellent -360 odds to score Sunday, Morgan's are -590, and among the odds to have a goal and an assist, Heath's +220 line is worse than Rapinoe's +130 or Morgan's +110. Heath could be a little under-owned because of her disappointing performance against Thailand, though Rapinoe and Morgan both have the upside to match her, not to mention Sweden's Allsani.
The three front-line players weren't the only ones to put in dominant performances, as Samantha Mewis had two goals on six shots (three on target) and two assists on four chances created at a $6,900 salary, and she's only $100 more this weekend. On the other hand, the DraftKings salary algorithm has greatly adjusted for Rose Lavelle, who was only $4,500 against Thailand but after scoring two goals on five shots (three on target), she's now $7,200 with -122 odds to score (the same as Mewis). There really doesn't seem like a bad place to go when it comes to the Americans, and maybe the most important thing we learned from the Thailand match is that there's no indication that they'll sit back and absorb pressure once they get a big enough lead. No team in the world would be able to go up 7-0 and then bring on Lloyd and Press before Pugh joined them 12 minutes later. And speaking of piling on, the Thailand match was 7-0 after 73 minutes but 11-0 after 84, and Lloyd didn't get her goal until two minutes into stoppage time. Up 12-0 in stoppage time and they kept going! If anything, it showed that we can still get some solid production out of substitutes, which should surely be used for DraftKings' showdown slate and FanDuel's single game. The risk is always that we don't know for sure who will be subbed on, but you're giving yourself a fighter's chance in these stupidly top-heavy GPPs with a lower-than-normally owned Lloyd or Press or Pugh.
