Women's World Cup: Thursday DFS Breakdown

Thursday's opening match includes the sides that were expected to battle for the top spot in Group C, though Australia were dealt a heavy blow in their first match by losing to Italy despite having 64 percent possession and outshooting them 16 to six. Their lone goal against the Italians came on a rebounded penalty by Samantha Kerr, arguably the best player in the world but also one who came in with zero career World Cup goals. Australia are favored in the match (+115 on FanDuel Sportsbook), and Kerr's +105 anytime goal scorer odds are the best on the slate, so don't be surprised when she's very highly owned. Left-back Ellie Carpenter ($4,300 on DraftKings) led the team with eight crosses, though it was Steph Catley ($4,600) who took two of their three corners, with midfielder Chloe Logarzo the other one. Logarzo was a solid fantasy scorer in her 61 minutes on the pitch, finishing with 10.25 fantasy points from three shots, including one on goal, one cross, one tackle won and five fouls drawn. And speaking of Catley, whether she remains on set pieces is one issue, but the other is that she is expected to start at center-back in place of the injured Clare Polkinghorne, which obviously limits her open-play crossing opportunities (that being said, she had none in the first match anyway). Australia is actually expected to have a few lineup changes from their opening match, with Elise Kellond-Knight rumored to be moving into the first XI. At $6,000 on DraftKings, she isn't cheap, but she also scored 5.25 fantasy points in seven minutes off the bench thanks to two shots, three crosses and a foul drawn. With Australia favored, getting that kind of floor could be key to cash games.

Brazil should look relatively close to what we saw in their first match, specifically a starting XI without Marta, who only returned to light training Tuesday and is highly doubtful to start Thursday. Andressa Alves stepped up with a big game that could have been absolutely massive had she not failed to convert from the penalty spot. Otherwise, she racked up the fantasy points with two assists, two shots (one on goal), 11 crosses, two tackles won, one foul drawn and six chances created. She took Brazil's set pieces over Debinha, and there's little reason to think she'd be low owned Thursday, even if Cristiane bagged a hat trick against Jamaica. It seems sub-optimal to roster Kerr, Alves and Cristiane since you're fading the biggest favorite on the slate in China, and Alves certainly has a higher floor than Cristiane. That being said, this match is -146 to have over 2.5 goals while the China v. South Africa affair is -134 to go under.

South Africa lost their opening match 3-1 to Spain, who had 73 percent possession and outshot them 27 to five. However, the South Africans were leading 1-0 through 68 minutes, but then an equalizer by Jennifer Hermoso followed by an 81st-minute red card turned everything upside down, as Hermoso scored again a minute later and then the final goal came in the 89th to make it seem like a blowout. Spain are certainly a better side than South Africa, but the latter my have been able to stay closer had they played with 11 for 90 minutes. Their matchup against China won't necessarily be easier, but they will be more familiar. Forward Thembi Kgatlana, the most recent African Women's Player of the Year and scorer of South Africa's goal against Spain, plays professionally for Beijing BG Phoenix in the Chinese Super League, along with center-back Linda Motlhalo. With many of China's players plying their trades in the domestic league, there is at least some familiarity with their opponents. And in regard to the red card against Spain, Leandra Smeda ($4,200 midfielder on DraftKings ) could start at left-back in place of the suspended Nothando Vilakazi, though Bambanani Mbane ($3,300) is also a possibility and obviously cheaper; unfortunately, she plays in the late game.

Meanwhile, China come in as the biggest favorite on the slate at -220, but it's a match that isn't expected to have many goals. The Chinese held Germany to just one goal in their opener, and it's not like the South Africans are really known for their offensive output. Wang Shuang surprisingly didn't start against Germany, reportedly because of a lack of match fitness, but she came on for the second half and finished with two crosses and two fouls drawn (plus a yellow card that pushed her DraftKings score down to 1.5). With a few more days of training under her belt, it seems more likely that she'll be in the starting XI on Thursday, with the natural thought that maybe she won't go the full 90. Gu Yasha took China's lone first-half corner, with Wang taking the two second-half ones, and the expectation is that Wang will take them if she's on. Li Yang was their most active attacker up front, and her +125 anytime goal scorer odds are the best in the game, followed by Li Ling at +155 and then Wang at +175. Wang figures to be popular in cash games as the set-piece taker for a decent favorite, though $7,700 on DraftKings is hardly cheap.