Women's World Cup: Tuesday DFS Breakdown

Tuesday's three-game slate should get plenty of interest, as the United States will finally get their World Cup started, and they come in as the biggest favorite of any team in the first round of matches, sitting at -10000 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win over Thailand, which makes Sweden's -715 odds to win over Chile look pedestrian and the Netherlands -335 to beat New Zealand seem like a toss up.

In actuality, the Netherlands v. New Zealand match won't be a toss up, and we could see a significant contrast in styles, as the Dutch are an excellent attacking team while the Kiwis have traditionally focused most of their energy on defense. That latter's style has changed recently, but it won't be easy for them to open up and get much going against the Netherlands, who boast elite players like 2017 player of the year Lieke Martens, who will start on the left wing, and Shanice van de Sanden on the right. The two will have no. 10 Danielle van de Donk between them with Vivianne Miedema, who had 31 goals in 27 appearances for Arsenal this past season (as well as 11 goals in her last 15 international games) up front. All of that isn't to ignore that Sherida Spitse took a significant number of corners during qualifying, and on a slate that didn't include the United States, you'd surely be trying to stack the Dutch. That being said, it's not like they're cheap alternatives to the Americans, as Martens is the third-highest priced player on DraftKings at $9,600, van de Sanden is the sixth-highest at $8,900, Miedema is the fifth-highest at $9,200, van de Donk is the 12th-highest (and second-highest midfielder) at $7,800 and Spitse is a "cheap" $6,200, though it's worth recognizing she's basically a defensive midfielder. So, you could certainly grab Dutch attackers if you want, but you're giving up spots for players from a -10000 favorite. They are a little more reasonable on FanDuel, as Martens is a shockingly low $14 when Miedema and van de Donk are each $20.

Meanwhile, New Zealand's most expensive player on DraftKings is forward Sarah Gregorius at $4,600, who you could theoretically target if you're looking for someone from the best underdog. Otherwise you might be better off with the defenders on FanDuel for their clearances, with center-back Ria Percival a helpful $10, though Abby Erceg is their best back-line player and costs $6 more.

Sweden and Chile could provide some fireworks, as the Chileans like to play an open style that could create goal-scoring opportunities for both sides. And while they failed to win their last 10 matches in all competitions, that doesn't mean they lack fantasy points. Karen Araya ($4,000 on DraftKings) is their creative engine, and she'll be joined in the midfield by Yanara Aedo ($4,700 forward on DraftKings) and Francisca Lara ($3,500), whose long-range efforts would make even Philippe Coutinho blush. While Chile prefer to control possession, it may not be that easy against the Swedes.

Kosovare Asllani ($8,200 on DraftKings, $18 on FanDuel) is Sweden's most dynamic attacker and could have a role on set pieces. However, she's hardly the only one worth considering on DraftKings, as Jonna Andersson is expected to start at left wing-back and costs only $3,100 and right wing-back Hanna Glas is only $3,200. Both have taken corners in the past, though neither are likely to get a majority Tuesday. Nevertheless, getting two wing-backs at a combined $6,300 can really go far on a slate that has plenty of expensive attackers. Stina Blackstenius comes in with the best anytime goal scorer odds in the game at -132 on DraftKings Sportsbook, though she'll be pretty goal dependent. Meanwhile, Caroline Seger will start in the holding midfield and took Sweden's last penalty.

But all of this chatter about the first two games is the appetizer to United States v. Thailand, which is expected to be an absolute bloodbath. We have decent sized classic slates on DraftKings and FanDuel, but the big money will be in the showdown and single game contests on both sites, with each offering a $25K tournament that pays $5,000 to first place (and if you come up a little short, you lock in $100 on FanDuel for finishing ninth, whereas you'll win at least that much by finishing in the top 25 on DraftKings).

Thailand come in having lost 10 of their last 11 matches, with their best wins in qualifying coming against Jordan (6-1) and the Philippines (3-1) while they lost 6-0 to China. Suchawadee Nildhamrong, also known as Miranda Nild, scored 12 goals in Thailand's last 17 games, and she's the teams' most expensive player on DraftKings and tied for it on FanDuel. That doesn't make her an attractive play by any means, as the expectation is that the United States will completely dominate the match. Even though the United States is only -8000 on FanDuel Sportsbook versus DraftKings' -10000, the match is also -220 to go over 4.5 goals and +100 to go over 5.5 (it's -240 and -114, respectively, on DraftKings). Given the lopsided nature of the match, I find it very hard to consider any Thailand players on DraftKings' classic slate, whereas only their defenders should be viable on FanDuel. Pretty much all of them will be given a plethora of defensive opportunities, so paying $10 for Sunisa Srangthaisong, $12 for Natthakarn Chinwong or $14 for Warunee Phetwiset is fine.

Figuring out which U.S. players to take will be the key part of the single-game slates. The Americans are the top-ranked team in the world, and the goals are significantly spread out, with 10 players combining for 17 goals in their past eight games, including 10 from substitutes! (marked with an asterisk below)

And this is where it starts to get fun. Showdown slates often force people to consider playing substitutes, but it's just never easy figuring out which one will be key. The 2018 UEFA Champions League final showdown was won thanks to a Gareth Bale sub-brace, and the 2019 edition was won after Divock Origi scored off the bench for Liverpool. Unsurprisingly, neither of those games had -10000 favorites. The U.S. salaries don't make rostering a sub easy, as Carli Lloyd is the cheapest five-figure player on DraftKings at $10,100, though only $11 on FanDuel is easier to stomach. Alex Morgan is probably the most famous player in the game, and she's also the most expensive on both sites, costing $16 on FanDuel and $14,100 on DraftKings (she's also the most expensive player on the classic slates at $24 and $10,200, respectively). Surely she'll be highly owned, and of course she can score, but costing less than Tobin Heath is a bit of a head-scratcher. Both players are elite options, and the only hesitation in rostering both of them is that it likely prices you out of Megan Rapinoe, who takes a majority of set pieces for the team. The three-headed monster is perfect for multi-entering, but they're hardly the only ones worth considering, as Mallory Pugh, Lindsey Horan and Lloyd can also have huge impacts.

The cheaper Americans fall in the midfield, with Julie Ertz ($9,000 on DraftKings showdown) and Samantha Mewis ($9,300) significantly more expensive than Rose Lavelle ($6,600). If there's one player who could get a lot of ownership simply because she's cheap, it's Lavelle, who is $4,500 on the DraftKings classic slate and $14 on FanDuel's. Lavelle doesn't have the upside of a lot of the other players on the team, but that cheap salary is pretty attractive for exposure to a team that might score six or seven goals. The fullbacks also shouldn't be ignored, but DraftKings did us no favors by classifying Crystal Dunn ($7,800 classic and $10,600 showdown) as a forward despite frequent starts at left-back. FanDuel has her correctly as a defender, and $8 on their single-game is pretty good for her attacking upside. Meanwhile, right-back Kelley O'Hara will likely be the most expensive starting defender on DraftKings while center-back Becky Sauerbrunn gets that distinction on FanDuel's single-game contests.

If you're sitting there thinking that you'll just roster Morgan, Heath and Rapinoe on DraftKings' showdown slate and fill the other three spots with subs, unfortunately you can't even do that. Rostering those three leaves $9,600 in salary for three more spots, and with the three cheapest players costing $3,700, $3,800 and $3,900, you're going to be $1,800 over the salary cap. So, you're going to have to choose one or two of them, with Morgan and Rapinoe likely the most popular duo even if Heath might be a better player than both of them. If you want to play the minutes guessing game, maybe this chart will help:

Or maybe it won't.