This article is part of our Daily Fantasy Soccer Cheat Sheet series.
Tuesday's two matches could be very different, as Italy (+210 to win on DraftKings Sportsbook) v. Brazil (+140) is expected to be quite close, while Australia (-3335) v. Jamaica (+4500) is not. Italy has already clinched a spot in the knockout round by beating Australia and Jamaica, and a draw against Brazil will see them top Group C. On the other hand, Brazil can still finish on top if they beat Italy by at least two goals, with DraftKings giving them a 13.33 percent chance (+650) to win by two, a 6.25 percent chance to win by three and a 3.23 percent chance to win by at least four.
Jamaica can theoretically finish third with a win over Australia, though their minus-8 goal differential means they'll have to win by at least 9-0 and hope Australia and Brazil end in a draw. Needless to say, it's unlikely. On the other hand, Australia would be better off with a win to move ahead of Brazil into second place, and a matchup against Jamaica, who lost 3-0 to Brazil and 5-0 to Italy, certainly lines up well for them.
Australia consideration will always begin with Samantha Kerr, the second-most expensive player on DraftKings at $8,900 and the third-most on FanDuel at $20. Kerr has been a consistent leader of the Australia attack, putting two of four shots on target in both matches, including a goal in the first after her penalty was saved. She comes in with a 77.53 percent chance
Tuesday's two matches could be very different, as Italy (+210 to win on DraftKings Sportsbook) v. Brazil (+140) is expected to be quite close, while Australia (-3335) v. Jamaica (+4500) is not. Italy has already clinched a spot in the knockout round by beating Australia and Jamaica, and a draw against Brazil will see them top Group C. On the other hand, Brazil can still finish on top if they beat Italy by at least two goals, with DraftKings giving them a 13.33 percent chance (+650) to win by two, a 6.25 percent chance to win by three and a 3.23 percent chance to win by at least four.
Jamaica can theoretically finish third with a win over Australia, though their minus-8 goal differential means they'll have to win by at least 9-0 and hope Australia and Brazil end in a draw. Needless to say, it's unlikely. On the other hand, Australia would be better off with a win to move ahead of Brazil into second place, and a matchup against Jamaica, who lost 3-0 to Brazil and 5-0 to Italy, certainly lines up well for them.
Australia consideration will always begin with Samantha Kerr, the second-most expensive player on DraftKings at $8,900 and the third-most on FanDuel at $20. Kerr has been a consistent leader of the Australia attack, putting two of four shots on target in both matches, including a goal in the first after her penalty was saved. She comes in with a 77.53 percent chance to score (-345), the highest on the slate, with teammate Caitlin Foord, the most expensive player on DraftKings at $9,200 but tied for the eighth-highest on FanDuel at $16, being given a 71.01 percent chance to find the back of the net. Emily van Egmond and Elise Kellond-Knight split their set pieces in the 3-2 win over Brazil, though Steph Catley and Chloe Logarzo shared the role in their opening loss to Italy. Catley started at left-back in the first match but moved to center-back for the second, while Logarzo played in her regular spot on the left wing in both games. Catley's positioning will help make the set-piece situation a bit clearer, which will be helpful since Australia figures to get plenty. If you're not as concerned with set pieces, right-back Ellie Carpenter has pushed forward quite a bit, while Logarzo has reached at least 9.50 floor points on DraftKings in back-to-back games.
Any looks at Jamaica begin with Khadija Shaw, who is the best attacker on a team that really hasn't been good in the attack. It's really tough to justify anyone else on DraftKings given how big of an underdog they are, even if Trudi Carter played pretty well in the first match before sitting for the second. Defender Allyson Swaby is coming off 18.20 fantasy points on FanDuel thanks, in part, to 11 clearances, and at $12, she could be an interesting salary-saver.
Italy and Brazil isn't expected to be high scoring, with the over 2.5 goals at -125 and the under at -104, while Marta has the best anytime goal scorer odds at +143, followed by Cristiane at +155. Meanwhile, Italy is led by Cristiana Girelli, who had a hat trick on four shots against Jamaica, at +200 and Barbara Bonansea at +240. Italy are certainly more comfortable because of their six points after two matches, but that doesn't mean they're going to sit back and get steamrolled by Brazil.
Debinha and Andressa Alves split set pieces in their loss to Australia, while Marta got on the scoresheet because of a 27th-minute penalty. Marta was questionable for the match because of a thigh injury, and while she was fit enough to start, she only lasted 45 minutes. It seems likely that she'll start again in such an important match, but there should definitely be some minutes concern again.
Meanwhile, Valentina Cernoia has taken a majority of set pieces for Italy, with Manuela Giugliano also getting one opportunity against Jamaica. The former is actually cheaper on DraftKings because the latter picked up three assists against Jamaica, but the floor points favor Cernoia.
Given the two matches, it just seems optimal to focus most of the salary attention on Australia because Italy and Brazil could be a low-scoring stalemate. Sure, there is always a possibility that they explode, but the odds firmly favor that happening for Australia, and with many of their players in similar price ranges as the Brazilians and Italians, why prioritize that match other than for ownership reasons?
