This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The quarterfinals of the US Open begin Tuesday from the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center in Queens, New York. At least one of the four Americans in action Tuesday is guaranteed to advance, but the others could be in trouble, especially since one is winless in seven previous matchups against their quarterfinal opponent. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the US Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
US Open Picks: Upset Alert
Fritz gave Djokovic all he could handle at the 2021 Australian Open before Novak escaped with a 7-6 (1), 6-4, 3-6, 4-6, 6-2 victory, but Djokovic has won all four of their subsequent meetings in straight sets to improve to 7-0 in his career against the ninth-ranked American. Djokovic fell into a two-set hole against countryman Laslo Djere in the third round, and he's been vulnerable to slow starts in Grand Slams, so Fritz could certainly make this one interesting if he starts hot out of the gate, but it's hard to see Djokovic losing to Fritz for the first time at this stage. Djokovic has won 15 of his last 16 Grand Slam quarterfinal matches, while Fritz has a career record of 0-1 in Grand Slam quarterfinals.
US Open Odds: Lock It In
This battle between Americans will be must-see TV, as both Shelton and Tiafoe love to work the crowd with a mix of high-octane shotmaking and high-energy attitudes. Tiafoe's looking to reach a second consecutive US Open semifinal, while Shelton is in the second Grand Slam quarterfinal of his first full year on the ATP Tour. At age 25, Tiafoe has refined his game more than the 20-year-old Shelton, but the latter's growing before our eyes, as Shelton just put forth one of the most complete efforts of his young career Sunday to avenge his Australian Open loss to Tommy Paul. Breaks of serve will be hard to come by in this battle of big servers, so expect an even match that comes down to which American executes better in a few key moments.
Ostapenko's riding high coming off a 3-6, 6-3, 6-1 win over Iga Swiatek. The former French Open champion has proven she has what it takes to go all the way in a major, while Gauff will now have to deal with the relatively new feeling of being among the select few favorites to bring home what would be her first major title. These two have split two previous matches, though the most recent meeting was a significant analogue to this one, with Ostapenko knocking out Gauff 7-5, 6-3 in the fourth round of this year's Australian Open. In this battle of contrasting styles, Ostapenko should once again find herself dictating terms with her power and aggressive court positioning, while Gauff's happy to use her immaculate court coverage to defend and counterpunch. Ostapenko was able to break down Swiatek's forehand by robbing her of time on that wing, and executing a similar strategy against Gauff will be they key to pulling off another upset.
US Open Predictions: Value Bets
Head-to-head history is in Muchova's favor here, and she has far more experience in the latter stages of majors. Three of the previous four meeting between these two have gone Muchova's way. She beat Cirstea in a 6-3, 2-6, 7-6 (7) thriller at the 2020 US Open, then they faced off three more times on hard courts in 2023, with Muchova taking two of those three meetings. Overall, Muchova has been to one Grand Slam final, a semifinal, and now three additional quarterfinals, while this is the second career Grand Slam quarterfinal for Cirstea. The other came way back in 2009, so the 33-year-old will be feeling pressure to make the most of this opportunity while Muchova can swing more freely.