This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The U.S. Open quarterfinals wrap up Wednesday from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City. Four of the eight players in action Wednesday have a chance to reach a Grand Slam semifinal for the first time, but the players with more experience at this stage may be better at handling the moment. Both No. 1 seeds will face top-six opponents, but one is in good position to keep rolling while the other could hit a speedbump.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Picks: Upset Alert
Daniil Medvedev (+215) vs. Jannik Sinner
These two have seen plenty of each other, as Sinner came back from a two-set deficit to beat an exhausted Medvedev in the final of the Australian Open but the fifth-ranked Russian got revenge in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon to end a five-match losing streak against Sinner after Medvedev had raced out to a 6-0 edge in their rivalry. The ball is skidding extra low on the U.S. Open hard courts this year, which plays well into Medvedev's flat, low strokes. Sinner has a substantial edge in power but will need to cut down on the slow starts and errors that have plagued him en route to the quarterfinals, as the world No. 1's margin for error is much lower here than it was against his previous opponents. The winner of this match will be favored to win the tournament, and Sinner will have to deal with the pressure of being favored in this match as he tries to reach his first U.S. Open semifinal against a player who fell short of that stage only once in the previous five years here.
U.S. Open Odds: Lock It In
Iga Swiatek (-380) vs. Jessica Pegula
Pegula's playing some of the best tennis of her career, having won 13 of her last 14 matches, but that success came against lesser players on lesser stages. The only top-15 opponent Pegula faced over that span was Aryna Sabalenka, who took her out in straight sets in the Cincinnati final. The sixth-ranked American is also 0-6 in her career in Grand Slam quarterfinals, including a pair of straight-sets losses at the hands of Swiatek. Overall, Swiatek leads their head-to-head 6-3, and the most recent meeting was a 6-1, 6-0 drubbing on hard courts in last year's WTA Finals. While Pegula has proven capable of beating Swiatek, the American will need near-perfect execution to do it, as she doesn't have the power to push around Swiatek and knock the world No. 1 off her game.
Karolina Muchova (-275) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
Haddad Maia is into her second career Grand Slam quarterfinal in what has been a surprising turn of events for the 2023 French Open semifinalist considering she entered this tournament with a 7-8 career record in hard-court Grand Slams. The 6-foot-1 lefty has enjoyed tremendous support from the raucous Brazilian fanbase here, but Muchova represents a major step up in competition for Haddad Maia, whose only seeded opponent en route to the quarterfinals was Anna Kalinskaya, who has a 6-6 career U.S. Open record. Muchova's unseeded due to missing extensive time due to a wrist injury this year, but she has found the form that got her into the top 10 last year, having reached the quarterfinals without dropping a set despite facing four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka and No. 5 seed Jasmine Paolini. Muchova leads Haddad Maia 3-0 head-to-head, having dropped just one set across those three matches. The crafty Czech keeps the ball low with her excellent slice and moves the ball around the court beautifully, using Haddad Maia's height against her by constantly making her bend down and scramble.
U.S. Open Predictions: Value Bets
Alex de Minaur (-125) vs. Jack Draper
Draper has looked more impressive en route to the quarterfinals, having yet to drop a set, but this is a major change in competition and pressure. The 10th-seeded de Minaur will be the first seeded opponent for the talented British lefty in what will be the first Grand Slam quarterfinal of Draper's career. The 25th-seeded Draper has a substantial edge in power, but de Minaur's no stranger to successfully defending and counterpunching, especially on hard courts. De Minaur will make Draper hit a lot of extra balls, providing more opportunities for the pressure to take effect and make some errors creep into Draper's game. While de Minaur has yet to break through to a Grand Slam semifinal, he has been knocking on the door and is more comfortable in the second week of majors, as this is his fourth career Grand Slam quarterfinal and third this year. De Minaur has won all three of their previous encounters, though Draper managed to snag a set in each match.
