This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Expert Roundtable: MLB Home Run Derby Bets
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Kevin Payne's Best Home Run Derby Bets
Pete Alonso (+320 FanDuel, best odds without a bonus) seems like the safest pick winning two of the last three contests but his struggles recently make me think this is the wrong choice. Since missing four games in the middle of June he has a .643 OPS and over just the last week it's dropped to .467. Alonso is only a -165/-170 for his first round matchup with Julio Rodriguez (hometown advantage) which seems like too low making me wonder if this is a sucker bet. Plus, taking the overall favorite is never any fun. I question Mookie Betts endurance in a contest like this and although he hit a 461-foot home run Sunday, I'm passing on rookie Adley Rutschman since I think once the adrenaline wears off for him in this stage, he'll falter. This leads me to Vladimir Guerrero (+370, DraftKings, +400 Caesars). I listed DraftKing here because you might have a 50 percent token you can boost for any derby bet bringing his odds to +555. He still owns the best round ever and I think he'll be more strategic this year and not wear himself out in the earlier rounds. Luis Robert (+550, Caesars) also peaks my interest and he's only +400 on other sites.
Distance of the longest home runs UNDER 490.5 Feet (-125, DraftKings)
For the record, Sammy Sosa has the longest home run in the derby (2002) at 524 feet although Stat Tracker has it being Juan Soto 520 in 2021 but that was also in Coors Field. Soto isn't in the field this season and while I really want to say take the over and know the bet possibly a win early on, logic is taking over here. T-Mobile Park doesn't appear to be a good place to hit long home runs and the stats back that up. The longest home run hit there is only 470 feet (Mike Zunino) and sluggers Shohei Ohtani (463 feet) and Aaron Judge (462 feet) haven't come close to hitting this over. While I realize that a home run derby is vastly different than a regular season game, none of this hitters have come close to getting to this mark. If you're looking for the over, FanDuel has it at 485.5 feet for -112.
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John Ryan's Home Run Derby Bets
The MLB All-Star break has arrived and festivities begin without delay starting with Monday Night's home run derby taking place at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. On Tuesday, the Midsummer Classic will be held between the American League and National League All-Stars.
The home run derby competition features eight power-hitting players led by the odds-on favorite Pete Alonso (+310) of the New York Mets. Alonzo holds the all-star game home run record hitting 35 bombs in one round during the 2001 event. The Toronto Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr is priced at +370 and is the second highest favorite. He holds the record for most home runs (91) hit in one home run derby event, which occurred in 2019.
The competition will be fierce with veterans Mookie Betts of the LA Dodgers priced at +1100, No. 1-seed Luis Robert of the Chicago White Sox priced at +500, and the Baltimore Orioles rookie catcher and largest underdog, Adley Rutschman, who is priced at +1800). The betting community prices the remaining contenders to hoist the homerun trophy with the hometown fan favorite Seattle Mariners, Julio Rodriguez at +500, then Adolis Garcia at +700, and Randy Arozarena at +1000 rounding out the field. Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
No.1-Seed Luis Robert, Jr. of the Chicago White Sox
Luis Robert, Jr. finished second in the rookie-of-the-year award in 2020 and won a Gold Glove playing center field. In his first three seasons, he hit 11,13,12 in the 2020-21-22 seasons, but has found tremendous power having hit 26 home runs including 51 RBI while posting a slash line of 0.271/0.333/0.501 this season. His launch angle has averaged an optimal 16 degrees for hitting home runs and is vastly different than the 10-degree launch angle he posted last season. The increase in the launch angle fully explains the increase in the number of home runs hit and also the drop in his batting average.
No.2-seed Pete Alonzo of the New York Mets
The New York Mets and their record-breaking highest payroll of $365MM have been the biggest disappointment in MLB this season. Alonso has done his share hitting 26 home runs ranking third-most and has won this event twice in 2019 and 2021. Apparently, the winning trend is that hoists the trophy in odd years and 2023 is an odd-numbered year. Ken Griffey, Jr. is the only player to win the home run derby three times. Alonzo will be competing in his fourth consecutive home run derby and that experience is in large part why he is the odds-on-favorite.
No.3-seed Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers
The LA Dodgers have been riddled with injuries to their pitching staff but have still managed to climb into first place in the Al West. Betts has been an enormous contributor this season having hit 26 home runs and posting a slash line of 0.276/0.379/0.586. he has hit four home runs over his last five games and that momentum may carry over to the derby as well. He has posted his career-highest launch angle at 19 degrees, but only marginally higher than last season's 18.6 degrees. A launch angle between 17 and 20 degrees provides the greatest potential distance of a batted ball and if barreled up is a near-certain home run. Bett's biggest improvement this season is a career-high 92.5 average exit velocity and a second-highest 12.8 barrel percentage.
No. 4-Seed Adolis Garcia of the Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers are one of the biggest overachievers leading the AL West over the reigning World Champion Houston Astros. Garcia ranks 6th in MLB with 23 home runs and has posted a slash line of 0.261/0.331/0.517 this season. He hits the ball very hard averaging a 92.2 MPH exit velocity over the past two seasons and has one of the highest exit velocities of any ball hit at 115 MPH. He has achieved a career-high 13.1% barrel rate and that gets my attention.
No.5-Seed Randy Arozarena of the Tampa Bay Rays
For a first-time competitor, Arozarena is a legitimate long shot to consider betting on tonight despite being a bit diminutive in stature at 5-11 and 185 pounds. He has hit 16 home runs ranking 29th in MLB but has the athleticism and the swing plane to get hot and hit a monster number of home runs tonight. So, at +900 he offers the most realistic value on the card.
No.6-Seed Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays
This is Guerrero's second home run derby appearance and his first since breaking the record hitting 91 bombs and winning the 2019 contest. I would like him a whole better had he not drawn Betts in a first-round matchup.
The Rest of the Competitors
Given the bracket matchups, I do not see any of the long shots having a realistic shot at pulling off the monster upset. However, the hometown hero, and No.-7 seed Julio Rodriguez is not having the type of season that puts him on my betting radar tonight. He has hit only 13 home runs ranking 57th in MLB and has hit just one home run over his last five games. He is a line-drive type of hitter averaging a 9.7-degree launch angle for his career, but has attained a 115 MPH max exit velocity this season. Cannot rule him out, but believe I am not getting paid enough to bet him reflecting the hometown fans are betting on him in abundance.
John Ryan's Best Bets for the Home Run Derby
· Bet on Randy Arozarena +120 over Adolis Garcia
· Bet on Mookie Betts +175 over Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
· Bet Under 42.5 home runs hit -105 in the Alonso vs Rodriguez matchup
· Bet Betts defeats Luis Robert, Jr in the Finals getting +3000
· Bet Pete Alonso to defeat Arozarena in the Finals +1300
Remember, these are 'Pizza Money' bets only. If there is one thing you remember from me is how I like to end all of my video shows and that is to "Bet with your head and not over it and may all the wins be yours"
