This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Best Bets and Expert Picks for Thursday, May 16
Johnny V is back! Needed a little R&R, although my time in the Bahamas leaned more toward debauchery. It's good to be drawing the blank page with College Baseball plays. I've felt a little out of sorts not being able to do my thing last week, so let's jump right into it.
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Arkansas Razorbacks (-115) @ Texas A&M Aggies (-115) | Total: N/A
This is THEE matchup of the weekend, maybe the top of the year. Hagen Smith vs. Ryan Prager. The No. 3 Razorbacks vs. the No. 5 Aggies. What a showdown.
Hagen Smith has without a doubt been the best pitcher in College Baseball in 2024. His 1.65 ERA leads the country, as does his 17.24 K/9. He's tallied double digit Ks in 10 games, has 10 quality starts, and his team has won all 13 of his starts. Smith had his worst start of the year last weekend (at least since his debut against JMU in Week 1) where he allowed three earned and four walks over five innings with 11 Ks against Mississippi State. Seriously, the worst start of the year registered five innings, three runs and 11 punchies. As great as Smith has been this year, he has to contend with not only a great offense, but an Aggie team that is 30-2 at home this season. The key is silencing the elite 1-3trio of Gavin Grahovac, Jace LaViolette, and Braden Montgomery, who have combined to hit 69 homers this year.
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Montgomery is a good bet to go to top five in this year's MLB Draft (definitely top 10). Laviolette has a shot to go No. 1 in next summer's draft (if not, top five). Grahovac has got top-10 makings for 2026. It is without a doubt the best trio in College Baseball from an offensive standpoint. It's one of the main reasons why A&M has been a top team in the country all season. For Smith, keeping the ball in the yard is of the highest importance as he's allowed just four home runs this year.
It's likely going to be a bloodbath series. Offensively, the edge is definitely in favor of the Aggies, while the pitching advantage is definitely on the side of Arkansas. Although the Aggies don't have the Razorbacks' staff, they do have a pretty good Friday night guy of their own. Ryan Prager has been nails all season. I had a lot of questions about him coming into the year, but he has shined to become one of the games top arms. Pitching to a 2.71 ERA, and a 95:12 K:BB ratio over 69.2 IP, Prager has been awesome sauce. The one bugaboo would be the nine homers he's allowed. He's definitely been better at home this year, allowing just five earned runs in four SEC starts (23.3 IP).
The thing that I always knew was going to cap this Arkansas team was its offense. Last season it was pretty good when it had studs like Jered Wegner, Jace Bohrofen and Tavian Josenberger. After losing all of those dudes, plus more, they've been really having to grind it out offensively this year. Arkansas has only one player with at least 10 bops, and just three guys batting over .300. As a team, they rank 120th across DI Baseball in runs scored (354). It's a big problem for the month of June, but in terms of the game one, they realistically need to turn out about five runs to have a great chance to grab the win tonight.
With rotation changes for both teams in Games 2 and 3, the advantage swings in favor of A&M because the offense is that much better. I think TAMU likely grabs the series, but I have to side with Hagen Smith tonight.
Pick: Arkansas ML -115
