This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
The Guardians are coming off a successful 2022 regular season, in which they won the Central Division at 92-70 before losing a 3-2 series to the Yankees in the American League Division Series. What are the expectations for Cleveland in 2023, and what factors could lead the Guardians to exceed or underperform their projected 2023 win total? Find out below.
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What is the Projected Cleveland Guardians Win Total in 2023?
The over/under on the Cleveland Guardians win total in 2023 is set at 87.5 on BetMGM. The outlook at Caesars Sportsbook is similar, with the over/under set at 87.0 wins. Many people believed that the Guardians over-performed last season with the youngest roster in the Major Leagues.
It looks as though sportsbooks are expecting a modest step back from the Guardians compared to their 2022 campaign.
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Why The Cleveland Guardians Can Go Over Their Projected Win Total In 2023
The Guardians also play in arguably the weakest division in baseball, which makes a huge difference considering MLB teams play each division opponent 19 times, accounting for 76 of the season's 162 games. The White Sox finished 81-81 in 2022, while the rest of the AL Central was under .500, including two of the three worst records in the American League.
With elite pitching and limited competition, the Guardians could repeat last season's success, and even a modest decline could still allow Cleveland to hit the over with 88 or more wins. When deliberating whether to bet the over or under in 2023 for Cleveland's win total, make sure to consider the negative factors below as well, but the Guardians still look like the class of the AL Central and are in good position to hit the over on their projected win totals from BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.
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Why The Cleveland Guardians May Fail To Reach 87 Wins In 2023
Outside of star third baseman Jose Ramirez, Cleveland's offense doesn't scare opposing pitchers. The Guardians just missed a bottom-10 finish offensively with 4.23 runs per game in 2022, and they hit the second-fewest home runs in the league.
Cleveland's hoping the offseason signing of free agent first baseman Josh Bell will help address the lack of power. Bell has topped 25 home runs three times but launched only 17 long balls last season. The Guardians also added catcher Mike Zunino, who has four 20-homer seasons under his belt. Even with Bell and Zunino in the fold, a Ramirez slump or injury could prove devastating to the Guardians' offense. Strong pitching papered over the offensive struggles last season, but any injuries or regression from the pitching staff will also be difficult to overcome.
Prior to last season, the Guardians won only 80 games in 2021, so splitting the difference between the past two seasons puts Cleveland at 86 wins, which is just below the BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook over/unders. The rest of the division is likely to get better as well, creating a tougher schedule for manager Terry Francona's team in 2023. The rebuilding Royals and Tigers both have much more room to improve than decline, while the White Sox and Twins are both projected to finish above .500 in 2023.
