Closer Encounters: 2024 Closer Rankings 3.0

Closer Encounters: 2024 Closer Rankings 3.0

This article is part of our Closer Encounters series.

Since the last iteration of these rankings went live in early February, a lot has changed in the closer landscape.

Devin Williams was diagnosed with stress fractures in his back and will miss approximately three months. The White Sox traded Gregory Santos, leaving closing duties open for the taking in Chicago. Tanner Scott has issued seven walks through 2.2 spring innings. My favorite relief pitcher target for 2024 drafts — Matt Brash — suffered an elbow injury that was initially thought to be season-ending, but turned out to be merely inflammation.

At the time of this writing, there are still unsettled closing situations in Milwaukee, San Diego, Chicago (both the White Sox and Cubs), Oakland, Detroit, Philadelphia, Colorado, Kansas City and possibly Miami. That has resulted in considerable movement within these rankings. Before we get to those, let's revisit Step 1 of my rankings process.

When I posted my initial closer rankings for the 2024 season, many of the top sports betting sites had not yet released team over/under totals. Using the latest projections and betting lines, most teams only had swings of one or two wins (and just one save) in either direction. Others had no changes at all.

2024 Projected Wins & Saves by Team (Update)

Team

2024 Projected

Wins Aggregate

Rufe's

2024 Projected

Team Saves

 

Team

2024 Projected

Wins Aggregate

Rufe's

2024 Projected

Team Saves

AL East

 

NL East

NYY

90

42

 

ATL

99

46

BAL

87

44

 

PHI

88

41

TOR

Since the last iteration of these rankings went live in early February, a lot has changed in the closer landscape.

Devin Williams was diagnosed with stress fractures in his back and will miss approximately three months. The White Sox traded Gregory Santos, leaving closing duties open for the taking in Chicago. Tanner Scott has issued seven walks through 2.2 spring innings. My favorite relief pitcher target for 2024 drafts — Matt Brash — suffered an elbow injury that was initially thought to be season-ending, but turned out to be merely inflammation.

At the time of this writing, there are still unsettled closing situations in Milwaukee, San Diego, Chicago (both the White Sox and Cubs), Oakland, Detroit, Philadelphia, Colorado, Kansas City and possibly Miami. That has resulted in considerable movement within these rankings. Before we get to those, let's revisit Step 1 of my rankings process.

When I posted my initial closer rankings for the 2024 season, many of the top sports betting sites had not yet released team over/under totals. Using the latest projections and betting lines, most teams only had swings of one or two wins (and just one save) in either direction. Others had no changes at all.

2024 Projected Wins & Saves by Team (Update)

Team

2024 Projected

Wins Aggregate

Rufe's

2024 Projected

Team Saves

 

Team

2024 Projected

Wins Aggregate

Rufe's

2024 Projected

Team Saves

AL East

 

NL East

NYY

90

42

 

ATL

99

46

BAL

87

44

 

PHI

88

41

TOR

86

44

 

NYM

79

37

TB

86

45

 

MIA

78

40

BOS

80

39

 

WAS

66

33

AL Central

 

NL Central

MIN

85

40

 

STL

84

42

CLE

80

40

 

CHC

84

41

DET

79

43

 

CIN

81

42

KC

74

42

 

MIL

80

43

CHW

66

31

 

PIT

75

35

AL West

 

NL West

HOU

92

42

 

LAD

99

44

SEA

86

46

 

ARI

85

41

TEX

85

40

 

SD

81

43

LAA

75

38

 

SF

80

41

OAK

65

32

 

COL

64

34

With updated win and save projections for each team, I combed through my personal save projections and did some tweaking. Below the updated rankings, I've included several notable risers and fallers. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.

Also, be sure to bookmark our Closer Grid for all the latest closer updates, including team blurbs, hierarchy changes and my closer-in-waiting rankings.

2024 Closer Rankings 3.0

Change

Rank

Tier

Player

Team

Rufe's Save

Projection

Team Save %

Notes

+1

1

1

Edwin Diaz

NYM

33

90%

 

+1

2

1

Jhoan Duran

MIN

32

80%

 

+1

3

1

Raisel Iglesias

ATL

36

78%

 

+2

4

1

Emmanuel Clase

CLE

35

88%

 

-

5

1

Josh Hader

HOU

33

78%

 

+3

6

1

Evan Phillips

LAD

31

70%

On brink of top 5, huge ratio asset & could have >70% share

-

7

2

Camilo Doval

SF

33

80%

 

-

8

2

Jordan Romano

TOR

33

75%

 

+1

9

2

Paul Sewald

ARI

31

75%

 

+5

10

2

Clay Holmes

NYY

29

70%

Boone: "he's our closer" = +SVs

+6

11

2

Andres Munoz

SEA

28

60%

+SVs w/Brash & Santos ailing

-

12

2

Craig Kimbrel

BAL

29

65%

 

-

13

2

Pete Fairbanks

TB

27

60%

 

-

14

3

Alexis Diaz

CIN

29

70%

 

-4

15

3

David Bednar

PIT

25

71%

-SVs (a few) w/lat injury

+2

16

3

Ryan Helsley

STL

21

50%

 

+2

17

3

Kenley Jansen

BOS

23

60%

 

+8

18

3

Carlos Estevez

LAA

22

58%

SV boost w/Stephenson hurt

+3

19

3

Yuki Matsui

SD

24

55%

 

-4

20

4

Tanner Scott

MIA

15

40%

-SVs, has lost command

+9

21

4

Jose Alvarado

PHI

13

30%

 

+5

22

4

Adbert Alzolay

CHC

15

37%

Counsell has not named a closer, but moves up the rankings w/other movement in this range.

+1

23

4

David Robertson

TEX

16

40%

 

+1

24

4

Jose Leclerc

TEX

16

40%

 

+4

25

4

Hunter Harvey

WAS

14

40%

 

+2

26

4

Mason Miller

OAK

11

35%

 

+7

27

4

Hector Neris

CHC

13

30%

 

-7

28

5

Orion Kerkering

PHI

13

30%

 

-9

29

5

Matt Brash

SEA

9

20%

-SVs w/elbow injury

+1

30

5

Kyle Finnegan

WAS

14

40%

 

-30

31

5

Devin Williams

MIL

11

25%

Back injury will sideline him 3 months

+27

32

5

Andrew Nardi

MIA

14

35%

+SVs w/Scott looking lost

+9

33

5

Aroldis Chapman

PIT

7

20%

+SVs w/Bednar lat tightness

-1

34

5

Jason Adam

TB

11

25%

 

-12

35

5

Alex Lange

DET

14

32%

-SVs due to spring struggles

+29

36

5

Abner Uribe

MIL

11

25%

+SVs w/DWill injury

+10

37

5

Robert Suarez

SD

10

23%

+SVs but still a big health risk

NR

38

5

Joel Payamps

MIL

9

20%

+SVs w/DWill injury

-4

39

5

Robert Stephenson

LAA

9

25%

 

-2

40

6

Jason Foley

DET

11

25%

 

-2

41

6

Ryan Pressly

HOU

5

12%

 

-2

42

6

Bryan Abreu

HOU

3

7%

 

-2

43

6

Jeff Hoffman

PHI

7

17%

 

-1

44

6

A.J. Minter

ATL

5

10%

 

-1

45

7

DL Hall

MIL

2

5%

 

NR

46

7

Jordan Leasure

CWS

9

30%

Santos trade to CWS opens door

-2

47

7

Justin Lawrence

COL

16

50%

 

NR

48

7

Michael Kopech

CWS

7

23%

Santos trade to CWS opens door

-3

49

7

Will Smith

KC

13

30%

 

-2

50

7

Yennier Cano

BAL

7

15%

 

+3

51

7

Erik Swanson

TOR

5

10%

 

+1

52

7

Gregory Santos

SEA

7

15%

 

NR

53

7

Shelby Miller

DET

8

18%

Is he primed to take over in DET?

NR

54

8

Dany Jimenez

OAK

8

25%

History of shoulder injuries, but may be closer until he gets hurt

-

55

8

James McArthur

KC

8

20%

 

NR

56

8

Trevor Megill

MIL

6

15%

The dark horse in MIL

NR

57

8

Scott Barlow

CLE

3

8%

 

-22

58

8

Brusdar Graterol

LAD

5

10%

Shoulder & hip injuries

+10

59

8

Matt Strahm

PHI

2

5%

 

-8

60

8

Andrew Kittredge

STL

6

15%

 

-3

61

8

Julian Merryweather

CHC

4

10%

 

NR

62

8

John Brebbia

CWS

5

15%

 

-2

63

9

Kevin Ginkel

ARI

4

10%

 

NR

64

9

Giovanny Gallegos

STL

6

15%

 

NR

65

9

Griffin Jax

MIN

4

10%

 

NR

66

9

Colin Poche

TB

3

7%

 

-10

67

9

Kirby Yates

TEX

4

10%

 

NR

68

9

Tyler Kinley

COL

6

15%

 

NR

69

9

Dillon Tate

BAL

4

10%

 

-7

70

9

Pierce Johnson

ATL

2

5%

 

Dropped out of the Top 70: A.J. Puk (preparing to start), Scott Effross (injured), Garrett Whitlock (candidate for starting rotation), JoJo Romero (battling control issues), Woo-suk Go (rough spring, likely has work to do to ascend SD leverage ladder), Nick Anderson (was too optimistic re: save projection), Chad Green (just missed the cut), Lucas Erceg (shifted some of his projected saves to Jimenez), Gregory Soto (just missed the cut), Prelander Berroa (dealing with shoulder injury), Jose Soriano (preparing to start), Tanner Rainey (just missed the cut), Ben Joyce (too wild)

RISERS

Evan Phillips, Dodgers: The Dodgers flirted with signing Josh Hader and have been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Kenley Jansen if he's traded. However, Phillips stands as Los Angeles' best option to close, having posted a dominant 1.74 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 152:33 K:BB across 134.2 innings during his time with the Dodgers. The 29-year-old notched 24 saves in 27 chances last season and has been my biggest closer target in recent drafts. I've drafted him ahead of ADP and I'm comfortable drafting him as my CL1. I currently have him projected for a 70 percent team save percentage, but he's certainly capable of surpassing that mark in 2024.

Clay Holmes, Yankees: Holmes opened last season as the Yankees' high-leverage reliever, mixing in closing duties with work in the seventh and eighth innings. However, all but two of his 28 outings following the All-Star break came in the ninth inning or later. Aaron Boone recently called Holmes "our closer," which puts him in position to easily challenge the career-best 24 saves he racked up last year. I might actually be conservative projecting him for a 70 percent team save share, as 30-plus saves could be on the horizon.

Andres Munoz, Mariners: I'm still cautious since Munoz always seems to be dealing with some sort of injury, but his biggest competitors for saves in Seattle — Matt Brash (elbow) and Gregory Santos (lat) — are currently hurt. By default, he gets a boost to his save projection — from a 50 percent team share to 60 percent.

Andrew Nardi, Marlins: With Tanner Scott struggling this spring, I'm loading up on Nardi shares. Granted, he's had some control issues as well, but he has yet to allow a run through 4.2 spring innings. Nardi was one of the best in the league at limiting hard contact last year with a 99th percentile average exit velocity allowed (84.6 mph) and 98th percentile hard-hit rate (27.3 percent). While his 8.9 percent walk rate was a little high, he was 26th among qualified relievers with a 21.9% K-BB percentage. Given all the injuries to Miami's starting pitchers, A.J. Puk and Ryan Weathers look likely to make the starting rotation, which moves Nardi up the leverage ladder.

Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe, Trevor Megill, Brewers: Brewers manager Pat Murphy doesn't plan to name a closer anytime soon, but my favorite target out of this trio is Uribe. He may not get the first opportunity to close, but has the most upside with a triple-digit fastball and devastating slider combination. As the veteran, Payamps might get the first crack at closing duties for Milwaukee, but prior to last season he was a journeyman reliever. Megill posted a 35.1 percent strikeout rate last season, so don't count him out of contention for this role.

FALLERS

Devin Williams, Brewers: This is no surprise given his expected absence. I was conservative with his save projection (11), and some projection systems are a bit higher than that. I think Milwaukee's performance overall combined with the success of their relievers in Williams' absence will impact his return date. If the Brewers are clearly out of contention around mid-June, they'll have no reason to rush him back.

David Bednar, Pirates: Bednar is the most notable faller in these rankings. He has yet to make a Grapefruit League appearance this spring, as he experienced lat tightness earlier this month. He was scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Friday, but no news has surfaced since then. Bednar still has time to get ready for Opening Day, but his status could be in question if he can't ramp up in time. I shaved a few saves off of his projected total for this season. As a result, he slips a few spots in the rankings.

Tanner Scott, Marlins: Scott proved his upside with his remarkable outputs in 2023, but Scott looks lost on the mound right now. Seven walks through 2.2 innings this spring does not inspire much confidence in Scott opening the season as the Marlins closer. As such, I've reduced his save projection from 24 to 15. Even if he does find his command, he's a free agent after this season and is likely to be traded if Miami isn't contending.

Alex Lange, Tigers: Lange gets a ton of whiffs thanks to his elite curveball and effective changeup, but his 15.6 percent walk rate last season was 2nd-worst among qualified relievers. Somehow, he still managed to record 26 saves, but with Detroit ascending in the American League Central division, their patience in Lange as their closer may be wearing thin. Jason Foley is a capable alternative should the Tigers wish to make a switch, while Shelby Miller and Andrew Chafin could end up pitching the ninth as well.

Best of luck during the home stretch of fantasy baseball draft season!

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Rufe
Ryan manages the MLB Closer Grid and authors 'Closer Encounters'. He also contributes to the MLB draft kit and has been helping RotoWire subscribers through our 'Ask An Expert' feature since 2014. He's an NFBC enthusiast.
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