This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Best Bets for Friday, April 12
It's new week on the College Diamond. This is the time of the year where teams usually start showing themselves as contenders or pretenders. It's a loaded Friday night slate, and with so much to choose from, I had to really narrow it down.
Baseball fans can gear up for the season with BetMGM bonus code to get a first-bet bonus welcome offer worth up to $1,500 when using code ROTOBONUS. Check out BetMGM and the other major sportsbooks accepting credit card and PayPal.
South Carolina Gamecocks (+110) @ Florida Gators (-140) | Total: N/A
This game certainly made my card for Friday evening, although it's not my best play. This week, there are a handful of the elite pitchers like Chase Burns, Hagen Smith, Jonathan Santucci etc. all on the road as huge favorites against inferior opponents. The only way to capitalize there is through a parlay, which I already have on my card. Week 9 features a 2023 Super Regional rematch between struggling squads.
It's not exactly surprising to me that the Gators aren't as good as last year, but the depth of incompetence is a bit of a shock. When you lose a lethal 1-2 punch in the form of your Friday and Saturday guys like Brandon Sproat and Hurston Waldrep, it's definitely difficult to replace them. Of course, when you lose my precious Wyatt Langford and even Josh Rivera, that's a tough void to fill. With a few impressive series wins against Texas A&M, LSU, and Mississippi State to start out conference play, the 17-15 Gators masked themselves a bit. The truth has come out, though, after their latest fiasco, getting swept at Mizzou, a team that could realistically be demoted to Division II. Florida also lost to Florida State on Tuesday, which was for the third time this season. They are searching for answers, and fast.
Because the rotation is such a disaster, they'll give the ball to starter-turned-closer-turned-starter again in Brandon Neely, who replaces last year's midweek guy, Cade Fisher. It's confusing, but Neely was the Saturday guy as a freshman in 2022 after ace Hunter Barco went down, which propelled Sproat into the Friday role. Then last season, he was moved to strictly the closer role where he found success. Then this year, he was the closer – struggling – until about two weeks ago when the Gators plugged him in as the Friday guy for now. 2024 has been tough for Neely, pitching to a 5.18 ERA. Florida is desperate to jumpstart this rotation.
The Gamecock offense is solid, but definitely not the team we saw last year. They're led by superstar OF Ethan Petry, a kid who will have a real chance to be the top pick next summer. By his standards, it's been a quiet year for him with only 13 tanks and a .325 batting average. He'll absolutely be Neely's primary concern, but he can't forget about sluggers like Cole Messina and Kennedy Jones. Luckily for Florida, the Gamecocks have been a lot less lethal on the road.
South Carolina is slated to throw Eli Jones, who has been great this year. The 3.89 ERA is a little misleading because he just got lit up against the Aggies last weekend for seven earned runs in just 2.2 innings. Before that, Jones had only allowed 10 earned runs all year over seven starts. Truth be told, the Gamecocks haven't really went on the road to face an offense like Florida yet. The closest thing was prior to conference play when they faced Clemson, and got swept in a two-game set. The Tigers didn't score a ton, but SCAR's offense was weak, scoring eight runs total.
Jones will see a UF lineup that has not been reminiscent of the offenses we've grown accustomed to, but is still dangerous. There are a lot of producers in this Gator lineup, but the big dog in the middle is a beast lurking in the swamp. In my opinion, the best player and two-way player in the nation, and should-be top pick in this summer's draft, Jac Caglianone commands this offense. Statistically, Cags is on pace for his best season yet, batting .397 with 17 homers. At the moment, his numbers don't compare to UGA's Charlie Condon, who is not only batting .484 with 23 tanks, but making a really strong push to be the No. 1 pick this July. Nevertheless, Caglianone is still dominating, and when he goes, the Gators always have a chance. He's got 10 taters in his last 13 contests.
After what we saw last week, it's tough to go back to Florida. The Gators have a lot of issues. The thing is the Gamecocks are no better, and they've been bad on the road where UF has been good at home. The home-field advantage has mattered overall thus far in conference play. I just don't see Florida dropping this one after getting embarrassingly swept at Mizzou last week then losing another midweek to FSU. It's a short price for the home team, and it's fair game. A fun look I've noticed for South Carolina is in its last three road conference series in first games, it lost by exactly one run in each. This could make the +1.5 a decent look as well.
Pick: Florida ML -140
