This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
I was taking a break from my yard work and home renovation work on Saturday and noticed a no-hitter alert on my phone because Bowden Sawyer Francis was doing some psychotic pitching in Rogers Centre against the Angels in that moment. Anytime I see a no-hitter alert in the late innings, the first thing I do is glance over to the pitch count to see whether the pitcher has a legitimate chance of completing the no-hitter. Bowden entered the frame with 114 pitches thrown, which was already 17 more pitches than any of his other appearances this season. Francis had only thrown as many as 80 pitches in a game three times, and it was his three most previous outings. Three pitches later it was a moot point, as Taylor Ward took him yard to end the drama.
I will go on record that I am glad Ward did that, because I would like to see Francis avoid the perils of previous pitchers who put the extra stress on their arm in pursuit of an individual honor. Combined no-hitters may not be as sexy to the average fan, but they still get noted on Wikipedia along with regular no-hitters, so a pitcher's effort lives on in digital infamy.
Francis had averaged 14 pitches per inning heading into the 9th inning, so let's assume he had an efficient 14-pitch inning to finish the accomplishment. He would have become the 21st pitcher in history to complete a nine-inning no-hitter while throwing at
I was taking a break from my yard work and home renovation work on Saturday and noticed a no-hitter alert on my phone because Bowden Sawyer Francis was doing some psychotic pitching in Rogers Centre against the Angels in that moment. Anytime I see a no-hitter alert in the late innings, the first thing I do is glance over to the pitch count to see whether the pitcher has a legitimate chance of completing the no-hitter. Bowden entered the frame with 114 pitches thrown, which was already 17 more pitches than any of his other appearances this season. Francis had only thrown as many as 80 pitches in a game three times, and it was his three most previous outings. Three pitches later it was a moot point, as Taylor Ward took him yard to end the drama.
I will go on record that I am glad Ward did that, because I would like to see Francis avoid the perils of previous pitchers who put the extra stress on their arm in pursuit of an individual honor. Combined no-hitters may not be as sexy to the average fan, but they still get noted on Wikipedia along with regular no-hitters, so a pitcher's effort lives on in digital infamy.
Francis had averaged 14 pitches per inning heading into the 9th inning, so let's assume he had an efficient 14-pitch inning to finish the accomplishment. He would have become the 21st pitcher in history to complete a nine-inning no-hitter while throwing at least 128 pitches:
Francis would have become the 14th pitcher under the age of 29 to complete a no-hitter while throwing at least 128 pitches, so let's look under that hood to see what happened with those pitchers in the four starts following their no-hitter as well as the rest of that season:
Date | Pitcher | Pitches | Next 4 ERA | ROS ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
4/15/87 | Juan Nieves | 128 | 7.23 | 4.96 |
4/17/10 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 128 | 0.66 | 3.05 |
4/27/94 | Scott Erickson | 128 | 4.88 | 5.48 |
8/11/91 | Wilson Alvarez | 128 | 4.30 | 4.18 |
5/12/01 | A.J. Burnett | 129 | 2.33 | 4.38 |
5/19/08 | Jon Lester | 130 | 3.47 | 3.12 |
5/23/91 | Tommy Greene | 130 | 1.55 | 3.60 |
4/8/94 | Kent Mercker | 131 | 6.39 | 3.75 |
9/3/01 | Bud Smith | 134 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
6/30/62 | Sandy Koufax | 138 | 0.79 | 2.29 |
6/2/90 | Randy Johnson | 138 | 3.10 | 3.44 |
7/13/13 | Tim Lincecum | 148 | 3.86 | 4.54 |
6/25/10 | Edwin Jackson | 149 | 6.85 | 4.31 |
| AVERAGES | 134 | 3.82 | 3.95 |
As you can see, the numbers for these pitchers were all over the place for their next four starts following the no-hitter. Jimenez pitched like, well, Koufax, following his no-no, while Nieves, Mercker and Jackson suffered in their subsequent outings. Jackson's is most well known because he walked more batters than he struck out. That, and my dad was at the game to witness his third no-hitter while I was sitting in a Disney park pool that night after declining a last-second offer to drive down to St. Pete to join him in one of the suites, as they had an extra ticket. To this day, I have yet to see a no-hitter while my old man saw Jackson, Mike Scott and Matt Garza each twirl one while attending a fraction of the baseball games I have enjoyed in my lifetime.
Many of the pitchers on this list had issues with injuries in that same season as well, which is why I have always looked to fade pitchers coming off extreme workload outings. Perhaps it is my bias after watching what happened to Johan Santana after he completed his last no-hitter, a 134-pitch effort. He went 3-7 with a 8.27 ERA the rest of that season and was never seen again in the majors. Lincecum also went 26-24 with a 5.04 ERA after his massive workload in his no-hitter, while Jackson was 64-88 with a 4.85 ERA for the rest of his career. The larger point here is that Francis is finally establishing a toe-hold in the big leagues and it would have been a shame to see it derailed by an unnecessarily heavy pitch lift. I can respect John Schneider for giving Francis the chance as much as I respect him for immediately pulling him after allowing the home run to Ward.
Back to Francis, he summed up his success on Saturday as such:
Francis only recently joined the rotation with Toronto at the end of July and had been progressing toward a starter workload with 76, 81, 81, 95 and now 117 pitches over his outings since rejoining the rotation. He looks different in his return because he's leaned into his splitter while also adding a sinker to his repertoire:
Francis recently did a short interview with Lance Brozdowski and mentioned how he has adjusted his hand and his grip, and Alejandro Kirk liked what he saw so he continues to call it. Francis also mentions his splitter has more consistency and he is now favoring his slider over an underperforming curveball as his preferred breaking ball.
Francis is clearly beginning to figure it out after a long climb through the Milwaukee and Toronto systems, and it would have been a shame to see him derail this progress by pushing his body to unnecessary limits for a team with no chance at the postseason. I truly believe the best thing that could have happened for Francis was that the first batter homered in the ninth inning, because it allowed Schneider to quickly pull the plug before things got too far out of hand. Where Francis goes the rest of the season is anyone's guess, but a 23 percent increase in pitch count one game over the next has me rather pessimistic for his fortunes this week, and I've benched him in the two leagues where I'd added him in recent weeks.
