Collette Calls: Still Chasing Wins

This article is part of our Collette Calls series.

It was not even three months ago that I wrote an article on how to chase wins in 2022 looking at issues affecting both starting pitchers as well as relief pitchers. I am returning to this topic because six weeks into the season, things are even crazier than I expected in March. 

As I write this on Wednesday, May 11, we have:

• Three different relievers -- Clay Holmes, Adam Cimber and Reynaldo Lopez -- each have four wins and are tied with a glob of pitchers for the league lead.
• 11 different starting pitchers (min 25 IP) have ERAs below 3.00 and none of them have more than one win.
• Michael Kopech has a 0.93 ERA over six starts, has not allowed a homer, and has zero wins.
• One of the defending Cy Young Award winners, Corbin Burnes, has one win in six starts despite a 1.86 ERA.
• Nestor Cortes has pitched amazing baseball with a 1.41 ERA over six starts, but has just one win to show for his efforts.
• Steven Matz has won half of his six starts despite an ERA north of 7.00, giving him more wins the the three previous bulleted pitchers.

The issues with overall offense in April was certainly a factor, although there have been signs of life this week as we have seen some big line scores this week mixed in with some shutouts and even a no-hitter by Reid Detmers on Tuesday evening.

Let's begin with one of the metrics I referenced in the previous article -- RS/IP -- which is the runs a team scores when the starting pitcher is in the game. The table below shows that total by team for this season, with the league average filled in red:

It is tough to win when your team is not scoring runs. The plot below shows the correlation between run support and wins:

So, stream starters from teams producing runs and wins. Right? If only it were that easy. The Cubs have provided the second-most run support for their starters, yet their starters have just five wins this season. Cleveland has done similar damage offensively for their starting pitchers yet their rotation has as many wins as the Baltimore Orioles. Then we have the Pittsburgh Pirates who have just one win from a starter this season while the next quality start by a Cincinnati starting pitcher will be their first one this season. 

Things get rather interesting when we break down starters and the run support they get relative to the team's overall number. I mentioned the lack of support Nestor Cortes had in the earlier bullet point, and you can add Jordan Montgomery onto that list. Montgomery remains winless over six starts despite pitching well. The Yankees score 3.5 runs a game while their starter is in, but are averaging 4.6 runs a game, as their offense tends to show up late much like Tuesday night when Aaron Judge walked off Jordan Romano. 

Here are the top 20 pitchers who enjoy a particularly healthy dose of run support when on the mound compared to the team's average contribution when a starter is on the mound:

Oakland is 26th in starting pitching run support, yet Blackburn is tops on this list helping him win four of his six starts. Simply put, that is not going to last. Conversely, Gerrit Cole has received more support than Cortes or Montgomery on the roster, yet has just one more win than that duo. Dylan Bundy got off to an early hot start, but even all that run support could not keep up with his terrible pitching his last two times out. 

Conversely, here are the bottom 20 pitchers who could press charges for lack of support from their teammates:

Urias is not the pitcher I expected to see at the top of this list given how well the Dodgers are doing, but there he is. Note that two different Milwaukee pitchers are on this list while two others are on the previous one, reminding us that not all run support is created equally. Wright winning half his starts despite the lack of support speaks to how well he has pitched this season on the whole. Meanwhile, guys like Corbin and Plesac still wouldn't have many wins with more support given how many runs they're allowing.  If you are frustrated by some of these pitchers and their lack of wins early on, have some faith they start receiving similar levels of support as others on the staff.

Finally, we have 11 different relievers with three or more wins which would put them on pace for 10-12 wins on the season.:

• Clay Holmes: 4
• Reynaldo Lopez: 4
• Adam Cimber: 4
• Brock Burke: 3
• Jorge Lopez: 3
• Cody Stashak: 3
• Jacob Barnes: 3
• Dillon Peters: 3
• Steven Wilson: 3
• Jhoulys Chacin: 3
• Austin Warren: 3

It is worth reminding you that just five relievers had double-digit wins last year: Alex Reyes, Brent Suter, Chad Green, Paul Sewald and Josh Fleming. We have not had more than four relievers with 10-plus wins in any other season since 1997 when six relievers pulled it off: Bobby Ayala, Roberto Hernandez, T.J. Mathews, Danny Patterson, Arthur Rhodes, and Tom Candiotti. Reliever wins are bandaids for patching up a starting staff with trouble, but not a full-time solution given how impossible they are to project.

In summary, we are off to an odd start with the unusual size of pitching staffs. The reduction of roster spots appears to have already made an impact on offenses as they're heating up this week, but you can still look to act upon pitchers who have been rather lucky or unfortunate with run support. The complete table of pitchers (min 20 IP) is below.