DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

All player prices are as of Friday, May 1

Pitchers

Matt Harvey, NYM (Fri. vs. WAS), $11,200 – While Harvey's reduced early-season price may be out the window, this is still at least a few hundred dollars below what I'm willing to pay. The 26-year-old already looks just as good as he did back in 2013, with a slew of elite peripheral numbers backing that up. His velocity has already recovered to its pre-surgery form, and the result through four starts has been a 4-0 record that's backed by a ridiculous 31:4 K:BB ratio. Among qualified starters, Harvey ranks in the top-10 for strikeout rate (29 percent), walk rate (2.8 percent), swinging-strike rate (12.2 percent) and contact percentage (73.5). Meanwhile, the Nationals have MLB's fifth-worst strikeout rate (22.7 percent) and seventh-worst wRC+ (84) against right-handed pitching. When Harvey faced the Nats on Apr. 9, he didn't let a pitch count stop him from striking out nine batters over six scoreless innings.

Jake Arrieta, CHC (Sat. afternoon vs. MIL) – Arrieta has picked up right where he left off last season, going 3-1 with a 2.03 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 25:7 K:BB ratio over 26.2 innings in his first four starts. He always seems to carry a pretty reasonable price due to his poor track record prior to last year's massive breakout. It's been clear for quite some time that Arrieta is the real deal, and Saturday presents an ideal matchup against a decimated Milwaukee team that looks like a surprising contender for the No. 1 overall draft pick. Even with Carlos Gomez (hamstring) potentially returning Saturday, the Brewers are a team that can safely be targeted until further notice.

Miguel Gonzalez, BAL (Sat. night vs. TB) – For whatever reason, when I think of a mediocre big-league starting pitcher, Gonzalez's name is the first that comes to my mind. He's the type of guy I'd happily target with a lineup stack in the right circumstances, but he also always seems to be a bit underpriced. While not a good option for 50/50s or cash games, Gonzalez should have a combination of low price and low ownership percentage that makes him a strong play in large tournaments. Also, if he ends up getting the win, it means the much more highly-owned Chris Archer won't have those 3.5 points.

Tyson Ross, SD (Sun. at SF) – If you told me before the season that Ross would finish April with MLB's highest walk rate (14.1 percent) among qualified starters, I'd probably have asked you why C.J. Wilson changed his name to Tyson Ross. Troubling as it may be to see Ross struggling so badly with his control, it's seemingly just a matter of time before he figures things out. The strikeout rate (28.9 percent) and ground-ball rate (55.6) are still there, with Ross actually ranking among the major-league leaders in both categories. He's also thrown a slightly higher percentage of his pitches in the strike zone than he did last season, as the walks seem to be a combination of bad luck and improved plate discipline by opponents. Maybe hitters are starting to figure Ross out, but even if that's the case to some extent, the strikeout potential is hard to pass up.

Other options:Scott Kazmir, OAK (Fri. at TEX), $7400; Corey Kluber, CLE (Sat. afternoon vs. TOR); Collin McHugh, HOU (Sat. night vs. SEA); Trevor Bauer, CLE (Sun. vs. TOR); Johnny Cueto, CIN (Sun. at ATL)

Batters

C/1B Stephen Vogt, OAK (at TEX), $3,800 – Vogt's a good hitter in the most boring of ways, combining above-average plate discipline, contact skills and power, without excelling in any one of those aspects. The A's are fully aware of what they have, as the late-blooming backstop has consistently been batting third in the lineup. Even going back to last season, it seems Vogt is an elite option at catcher whenever the A's face a mediocre or sub-par right-handed pitcher. With the Rangers coming to town this weekend, that's all Vogt and the A's will see. It's getting kind of boring using this guy, but even as the ownership percentages stay high, the bang for your buck makes him worth a spot.

1B Adrian Gonzalez, LAD (vs. ARI), $4,600 – Gonzalez briefly cooled off from his insane start to the season, but with three home runs in his last seven games, he appears to be heating up at the perfect time. His price is more than reasonable when you consider both his track record and recent performance, even before accounting for the favorable matchups ahead. If you're ever making a lineup but don't want to put any thought or time into it, rostering left-handed batters against the Diamondbacks is a solid way to go. Not that I'd recommend such an approach, but it's no secret that the Arizona rotation is manned solely by unintimidating right-handers.

1B Ike Davis, OAK (at TEX), $2700 – Davis gets to face the same middling-to-lousy righties as Vogt, and while he may not be as good of an overall hitter as his teammate, the former Met brings plenty of power from the No. 5 hole. You can't ask for much more at a price tag below $3,000, so Davis will continue to be an incredibly popular option, and rightfully so.

2B Dustin Pedroia, BOS (vs. NYY), $3,900 – Pedroia is always worth a look when the Red Sox play at Fenway, and the upcoming matchups won't do much to dissuade you. While the 2008 MVP has a .660 OPS in 59 career at-bats versus CC Sabathia, we can probably all agree that those numbers came against a better version of the big lefty. The Saturday and Sunday matchups against Nathan Eovaldi and Adam Warren are also pretty decent, but it's really the low price tag that makes Pedroia so appealing.

2B/SS Alex Guerrero, LAD (vs. ARI), $2,900 – You'll obviously have to make sure Guerrero is in the lineup, as even the absence of Carl Crawford (oblique) doesn't seem to ensure the rookie of consistent playing time. Assuming he does get the start, Guerrero will be a fantastic option, even if he's buried in the No. 7 or 8 spot of an NL lineup. While the minor-league track record indicates that plate discipline may eventually be a problem, Guerrero has rare power for a middle-infield eligible player. He slugged 15 homers in just 243 at-bats for Triple-A Albuquerque last season, and he already has five long balls in 26 at-bats for the Dodgers this year. I'm not sold on Guerrero as a sure-thing star, but I'm 100 percent sold on him as a high-upside DFS option.

OF Adam Jones, BAL (vs. TB), $4,900 – I won't use Jones on Saturday against Chris Archer, as the Orioles' star center fielder has a 1-for-14 track record against the 2015 breakout star. Friday and Saturday are an entirely different story, with the O's facing Alex Colome and Nate Karns, respectively. Jones' entire season has been one extended hot streak, yet he's still priced in the second or third tier of outfielders. I do wish the game was actually being played at Camden Yards, but even at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, I like Jones' chances to have a big weekend.

Other options:C Buster Posey, SF (vs. LAA), $4000; Adam LaRoche, CWS (at MIN), $3700; Brian Dozier, MIN (vs. CWS), $4200; 3B Manny Machado, BAL (vs. TB), $4800; SS Jimmy Rollins, LAD (vs. ARI), $3600; OF Mookie Betts, BOS (vs. NYY), $4400; OF David DeJesus, TB (at BAL), $3100

Lineup Stacks

Friday

Dodgers vs. ARI's Rubby De La Rosa
Yankees at BOS's Justin Masterson
White Sox at MIN's Kyle Gibson
Orioles vs. TB's Alex Colome
Athletics at TEX's Colby Lewis

Saturday

Reds at ATL's Eric Stults
Dodgers vs. ARI's Jeremy Hellickson
Yankees at BOS's Wade Miley
Twins vs. CWS's Hector Noesi
Padres vs. COL's De La Rosa
Athletics vs. TEX's Nick Martinez

Sunday

Twins vs. CWS's John Danks
White Sox at MIN's Mike Pelfrey
Red Sox vs. NYY's Adam Warren
Marlins vs. PHI's Sean O'Sullivan
Orioles vs. TB's Nate Karns

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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