This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
This year's international class will sign on Jan. 15, 2021 instead of July 2, 2020, so most of the remaining unsigned players on the Amateur Board, which has not been updated since prior to the draft, will not be signing anytime soon. While there are relevant international players who have already signed in 2020, such as Javier Alexander Francisco, who signed with the Giants as an international free agent in March, I will focus exclusively on players selected in this year's draft for these rankings in order to keep it as straightforward as possible.
In going through this process, I made some minor adjustments to the top 400, but it stayed largely the same, especially in the top-200 range. After having 56 players from this draft following Day 2 of the draft, there are now 62 players from this class in the top 400. I think of the tiers kind of like this: if there are multiple players available from a tier during the FYPD, I'm not looking to trade up for that draft pick, but if there is only one player left from a tier, then I might be interested in moving up to get that player.
TIER 1
1. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Tigers
No. 7 overall is the highest I've ever ranked a player directly out of the draft, so it's not hyperbole to say Torkelson is a once-in-a-generation type of college hitting prospect. Batting average, OBP, power — it will all be there.
This year's international class will sign on Jan. 15, 2021 instead of July 2, 2020, so most of the remaining unsigned players on the Amateur Board, which has not been updated since prior to the draft, will not be signing anytime soon. While there are relevant international players who have already signed in 2020, such as Javier Alexander Francisco, who signed with the Giants as an international free agent in March, I will focus exclusively on players selected in this year's draft for these rankings in order to keep it as straightforward as possible.
In going through this process, I made some minor adjustments to the top 400, but it stayed largely the same, especially in the top-200 range. After having 56 players from this draft following Day 2 of the draft, there are now 62 players from this class in the top 400. I think of the tiers kind of like this: if there are multiple players available from a tier during the FYPD, I'm not looking to trade up for that draft pick, but if there is only one player left from a tier, then I might be interested in moving up to get that player.
TIER 1
1. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Tigers
No. 7 overall is the highest I've ever ranked a player directly out of the draft, so it's not hyperbole to say Torkelson is a once-in-a-generation type of college hitting prospect. Batting average, OBP, power — it will all be there. He will likely be battling with Vladimir Guerrero for the title of No. 1 fantasy first baseman in the middle of this decade.
TIER 2
2. Austin Martin, CF/3B/2B, Blue Jays
Martin will be quick to the majors and has the upside to someday compete for batting titles with 20-25 home runs and 15-20 steals while finishing top five in the majors in runs scored — basically what I envision from peak Ozzie Albies, who I view as a top-20 player for both contending and rebuilding teams in dynasty leagues.
TIER 3
3. Nick Gonzales, 2B, Pirates
His college numbers are bonkers, but we don't need to reference what he did in an extremely hitter-friendly environment. He hit .351/.451/.630 with seven home runs and a 22:20 K:BB in 42 games with a wood bat in the Cape last summer. This is a premium bat-first middle infielder in the Gleyber Torres/Keston Hiura mold. His ceiling is just as high as Martin's, but Martin's SEC track record and defensive utility gives him an undeniably higher floor. I also think Martin is a better bet to still be stealing bases at a notable frequency in 5-7 years.
TIER 4
4. Asa Lacy, LHP, Royals
5. Max Meyer, RHP, Marlins
6. Zac Veen, RF/LF, Rockies
7. Ed Howard, SS, Cubs
Even for fantasy, I think the two pitchers are safer than the two hitters in this tier, which should tell you how risky I think prep hitters are. Lacy has the edge over Meyer in size, handedness and depth of arsenal, while Meyer has the edge in command and the quality of the top of their arsenals (Meyer's fastball/slider combo trumps Lacy's fastball/slider combo). Just as there isn't a wrong answer when picking between the two pitchers, I don't think there's a wrong answer when deciding between Veen and Howard. Veen has the higher power ceiling, but I think Howard has the higher batting average and stolen bases ceiling. I don't think either guy will end up in a platoon, but if one of them did, it would be the lefty-hitting Veen. Still, I'm giving Veen the very slight edge due to his landing spot with the Rockies — I had Howard ahead of Veen pre-draft.
TIER 5
8. Garrett Mitchell, CF, Brewers
9. Austin Wells, LF/C/1B/DH, Yankees
10. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Mets
11. Heston Kjerstad, LF/RF, Orioles
It's tempting to put Mitchell and Wells in TIER 4 and put Crow-Armstrong and Kjerstad in TIER 6, but I think there's just enough separation to form a little four-player tier with these hitters. I like Wells more than Kjerstad because I think he will log significantly higher batting averages and on-base percentages while the raw power edge goes to Kjerstad, albeit with more risk of his hit tool limiting how much power he gets to in games. Mitchell and Crow-Armstrong are super toolsy, and most notably for fantasy purposes, they both project to steal 20-plus bases early in their big-league careers. Mitchell needs a swing change to get to his plus power in games, while I think Crow-Armstrong could naturally grow into 20-homer pop.
TIER 6
12. Reid Detmers, LHP, Angels
13. Cade Cavalli, RHP, Nationals
14. Emerson Hancock, RHP, Mariners
15. Mick Abel, RHP, Phillies
16. Nick Bitsko, RHP, Rays
17. Robert Hassell, LF/CF, Padres
18. Austin Hendrick, RF/LF/CF, Reds
19. Isaiah Greene, CF/LF, Mets
20. Masyn Winn, SS/RHP, Cardinals
21. Slade Cecconi, RHP, Diamondbacks
22. Carson Tucker, SS, Indians
The players I love in this tier (Cavalli, Abel, Bitsko, Greene, Winn, Cecconi) are also extremely risky for various reasons, but their upside is such that I think they are worthwhile gambles in this range. Cavalli, Greene and Cecconi have the tools but not the track record. Abel and Bitsko are prep righties, so they are extremely risky by nature, but they also have the upside to be top-10 fantasy starters. I would have Winn in Tier 4 if he was being developed strictly as a shortstop and I would have him in Tier 7 if he were being developed as a starting pitcher, but he settles here on a two-way development track (still hoping they pull the plug on pitching eventually). I also love Detmers, but I acknowledge that he is probably more floor than ceiling, so I love him in the same way I love Mike Soroka. Hancock is just a really solid pitcher, but I don't see enough upside to have him in a higher tier. I'm mildly betting against Hassell's power/speed and against Hendrick's hit tool, but I don't feel confident enough in either case to have them any lower than this. Tucker has supposedly reworked his swing to get to more power while also getting faster since last summer, so he is here now, but could be 10-15 spots higher/lower whenever we get a sense of how legitimate those improvements are.
TIER 7
23. Jared Shuster, LHP, Braves
24. Dillon Dingler, C, Tigers
25. Tyler Soderstrom, 3B/RF/LF/C, Athletics
26. Tanner Burns, RHP, Indians
27. Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox
28. Blaze Jordan, 3B/1B, Red Sox
29. C.J. Van Eyk, RHP, Blue Jays
30. Justin Foscue, 2B, Rangers
31. Bobby Miller, RHP, Dodgers
32. David Calabrese, CF, Angels
33. J.T. Ginn, RHP, Mets
34. Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Diamondbacks
35. Zach DeLoach, LF/CF, Mariners
36. Jake Vogel, CF, Dodgers
37. Aaron Sabato, DH/1B, Twins
38. Jordan Nwogu, LF/CF/RF, Cubs
39. Clayton Beeter, RHP, Dodgers
40. Logan Allen, LHP, Indians
This is the tier that best illustrates the depth of college pitching in this class. There are nine college pitchers in this tier and all of them have at least No. 3 starter upside. All of the position players in this tier have an avenue to become very good fantasy options, but the bats I like the most are either catchers (Dingler, Soderstrom) or 17-year-olds (Jordan, Calabrese).
TIER 8
41. Dax Fulton, LHP, Marlins
42. Jared Kelley, RHP, White Sox
43. Jordan Walker, 3B/RF, Cardinals
44. Cole Wilcox, RHP, Padres
45. Freddy Zamora, SS, Brewers
46. Petey Halpin, CF/LF, Indians
47. Hudson Haskin, CF/LF, Orioles
48. Nick Loftin, SS/2B, Royals
49. Daniel Cabrera, LF/RF/DH, Tigers
50. Patrick Bailey, C/1B/DH, Giants
51. Alex Santos, RHP, Astros
52. Nick Yorke, 2B, Red Sox
53. Kala'i Rosario, LF/RF/1B/DH, Twins
54. Nick Swiney, LHP, Giants
55. Nick Garcia, RHP, Pirates
56. Tink Hence, RHP, Cardinals
57. Werner Blakely, SS, Angels
58. Ian Seymour, LHP, Rays
59. Chris McMahon, RHP, Rockies
60. Hunter Barnhart, RHP, Rays
61. Colt Keith, 3B/RF/LF, Tigers
62. Kyle Harrison, LHP, Giants
The risk really gets amplified in this tier, while some low ceiling players like Loftin and Cabrera get mixed in. This is a nice spot to take a big swing in a deeper dynasty league, but in leagues where only 300 prospects are rostered, I'm not really looking to roster any of these guys until they prove something in pro ball.
TIER 9
63. Jesse Franklin, LF/CF, Braves
64. Jared Jones, RHP, Pirates
65. Alec Burleson, 1B/DH, Cardinals
66. Anthony Servideo, SS, Orioles
67. Zavier Warren, C, Brewers
68. Jordan Westburg, 3B/SS/2B, Orioles
69. Cole Henry, RHP, Nationals
70. Landon Knack, RHP, Dodgers
71. Tyler Gentry, RF/LF, Royals
72. Coby Mayo, 3B/RF/LF/1B, Orioles
73. Ben Hernandez, RHP, Royals
74. Alerick Soularie, LF/2B/DH, Twins
75. Casey Martin, SS, Phillies
76. Justin Lange, RHP, Padres
77. Hayden Cantrelle, 2B/SS, Brewers
78. Casey Schmitt, 3B, Giants
79. Owen Caissie, RF/LF, Padres
80. Keon Moreno, RHP, Cubs
81. Trei Cruz, 2B/3B, Tigers
82. Tyler Keenan, DH/1B/3B, Mariners
83. Carter Baumler, RHP, Orioles
84. Michael Guldberg, LF/CF, Athletics
85. Trent Palmer, RHP, Blue Jays
86. Alika Williams, SS, Rays
87. Liam Norris, LHP, Diamondbacks
88. Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, Pirates
89. Jimmy Glowenke, 2B/SS, Giants
90. Zach McCambley, RHP, Marlins
91. Gage Workman, 3B, Tigers
92. Kyle Nicolas, RHP, Marlins
93. Christian Roa, RHP, Reds
94. Connor Phillips, RHP, Mariners
95. Zach Daniels, CF/LF, Astros
96. Shane Drohan, LHP, Red Sox
97. A.J. Vukovich, LF/RF/3B/1B/DH, Diamondbacks
98. Samuel Infante, SS/3B/2B, Nationals
99. Jeff Criswell, RHP, Athletics
100. Milan Tolentino, SS, Indians
The best of the rest — I'd bet against any of these individual players becoming fantasy assets, but undoubtedly several will emerge from this tier to join the top 400 in the coming years.
