Farm Futures: Ranking Dilemmas: Prospects 1-25

The indefinite suspension of MLB, MiLB and fantasy baseball seasons are obviously a minor inconvenience compared to everything else going on in the world. However, in an effort to provide a distraction during this difficult period, I am going to peel back the curtain of my top-400 prospect rankings. This first article will cover my updated 1-25 prospects, and I hope to release another 8-16 articles in this series, gradually working further down my top 400.

In addition to each player's rank, I have noted where I believe the tiers are in the rankings and where each prospect was ranked on 10/1/19 and 1/1/20 (there are now graphs on each player's page to show how their ranking on the top 400 has changed), to provide a glimpse of how my valuation of these prospects has evolved throughout the offseason and spring training. For the players who saw big jumps from 10/1/19 to 1/1/20, my evaluation of that player changed significantly when I was able to do a deep dive on them while writing their outlook (available at the top right of each player page) for the magazine. Sometimes when I'm writing up a player, I have that ah-ha moment where I realize they need to be bumped quite a bit higher/lower, which is why there is sometimes significant movement when games aren't being played.

Might Be Too Low

This is tough for the top-25 guys, as I wish I could rank every player in this range higher, but then I'd have to move someone else down. Basically, I'm trying to pick the player(s) who I'm most worried about being too low on, even though there are plenty of players I have that worry about.

Hitter: Luis Robert/Marco Luciano

In the end, I couldn't mention just one guy. With Robert, it simply comes down to his hit tool. I think he'll be a .245 hitter this year, gradually getting up to .265-.275 in his peak seasons. Judging a minor leaguer's hit tool, particularly one with elite physical gifts, is one of the most difficult things to do when ranking pro prospects. If I'm even 15 percent too low on my expectation for Robert's hit tool, then having him ranked fifth will simply be wrong. The thing is, .245 is not his batting average floor, which is part of why he is ranked where he is. 

With Luciano, I see an extremely talented young power hitter who has not really been tested yet. Bat speed/hand-eye coordination can often rule the day in the lower levels, where pitchers make plenty of mistakes and lack the craft and repertoire to regularly take advantage of a hitter's weaknesses. I think there's a chance Luciano looks more like a .260-.270 hitter when we've seen him at Double-A and Triple-A. I also don't think speed will be a big part of his game by the time he reaches the majors. There's also a chance he's simply one of those special phenoms who never stops raking and never really deals with adversity. In that case, having him ranked 11th will look like a big mistake in retrospect.

Pitcher: MacKenzie Gore/Jesus Luzardo

My tax on pitching prospects in the top 20 or so of my rankings has grown steeper every year. It's easy to recite TINSTAAP (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect) as a mantra, but it has taken me years of experience to comfortably integrate that philosophy into my rankings. Gore is a perfect example of this. If we assume everything goes according to plan, he'll be an awesome big-league starter, and he isn't very far away. However, every year there is a Gore-caliber pitching prospect (or close to it) who has stumbled, and even if one doesn't, very rarely does that pitching prospect break through to the majors without some injury or performance issues. In earlier years, I was more tempted to say, "this guy's different" or "how could this guy fail?", but I've evolved into just assuming something will go wrong with the best pitching prospects, and that is why you don't see one in my top 14. Gore could be the exception. He could get to the big-leagues in 2020 and have immediate success and never look back. If that happens, then I will be wrong about where he is ranked.

The case for Luzardo being ranked too low is simple: he's the best of these guys for 2020, and why should we look past this year with three pitching prospects (Forrest Whitley, Gore, Luzardo) who are in the same tier? There have just been so many physical setbacks for Luzardo over the years and him being 6-foot is another minor aspect of my concerns. The next time he logs anything close to a big-league starter's workload will be the first time, but if he can do it, then he will be an SP1 and having him outside of the top 15 will look like an error.

Might Be Too High

OK, I'm not getting much better at limiting my selections to one player, although I'm guessing that will get easier the further down my rankings I get. Essentially, these are the guys whose ranking requires the most fortitude on my part.

Hitter: Jasson Dominguez/Drew Waters

As confident as I am in Dominguez dominating from Day One in pro ball, this is still easily the highest a player of his age (17) and experience (none) has been ranked. I'm not the only one. I haven't asked or checked, but I'm guessing his ranking this offseason has set records at many outlets for a player of his ilk. My philosophy with ranking July 2 international signing classes has evolved over the years as well, and I now believe it is the game's premier pipeline for position player prospects. First of all, there are better athletes available. MLB teams are picking from the top 0.0001 percent of athletes in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Bahamas, Colombia, etc. The top 0.0001 percent of athletes in the United States rarely play baseball. If Dominguez grew up in Texas or California, he would probably be playing basketball and football right now and would probably take a scholarship to play college football in a couple years. Additionally, it's much better to get into a pro system at age 16 than at age 18 or age 21. These factors have led to me aggressively ranking my favorite J-2 prospects, while staying on top of the public reports we get from instructs and the Tricky League — these are very important in order to avoid falling for the next Kevin Maitan. This is a subject I love discussing and it is obviously a very important part of ranking prospects for dynasty leagues. Anyway, I think Dominguez's first 30-50 pro games will essentially tell us if this ranking was right or wrong. The best J-2 guys meet little to no resistance in the lower levels.

As for Waters, I moved him from 10 to 19 while writing this article, and while I'm still probably close to the high man on him, his strikeout rate has simply been really bad at Triple-A and at big-league spring training, and I am finally wavering ever so slightly in my confidence level. He hits the ball so hard for his age and has the bat speed and foot speed that we crave, but it's possible he never hits for a high batting average.

Pitcher: Forrest Whitley

If this was my first year studying and ranking prospects, I can almost guarantee that I'd have Gore ahead of Whitley. I would look at their most recent statistics and I'd see that Gore was ranked first by the other rankers and no amount of context would dissuade me from putting Gore first on my rankings. My confidence in Whitley eventually becoming an ace is well documented, and I'd be lying if I said I didn't feel somewhat invested in him becoming great. Perhaps that has crept into my rankings. I'm basically chalking 2019 up to a lost season for him — he dealt with shoulder fatigue and subsequently changed his delivery for the sake of his long-term health, and all the while his stuff remained elite. Pitchers his size (6-foot-7) and with his stuff (three 70-grade pitches, two 60-grade pitches) don't come around very often and they don't demonstrate linear growth. In fact, their developmental track is often erratic due to the complications involved with harnessing such an electric repertoire while maintaining a consistent delivery from a long-levered frame. Those risk factors highlight how my ranking of Whitley could go wrong. 

Feel free to ask me any prospect-related questions in the comments section or on Twitter.