This article is part of our Rounding Third series.
Tuesday night was the 15-team LABR Mixed League Draft. We always draft this league early, among the first expert drafts of the season, and usually the second live industry draft (aside from the FSGA league, which didn't happen live this year at the conference as it normally does). Two factors made this draft different than other seasons, at least for me. One, the obvious - there's no end in sight for the lockout, and many top players remain unsigned, leaving more uncertainty for roles than usual. Two, this year Fred Zinkie and I decided to livestream the draft as part of the RotoWire podcast, which you can check out here.
All of my other drafts so far in 2022 have been "draft-and-hold" leagues. The concept is pretty easy to understand. We draft bigger rosters than a typical draft, but don't supplement our rosters with free agents. The draft-and-hold leagues are a great way to get a good feel for the draft pool, test out my rankings and projections, all while not adding too many in-season duties to managing the roster. I play the NFBC "Draft Champions" and "NFBC-50" leagues - one has 15-team league with an overall contest, the latter has a 12-team format with a lower price point. A downside to the draft-and-hold contests generally is that one tends to miss out on some of the "free loot" that enters the league - players that we didn't expect to get called up, others that win roles that we didn't expect, or that we just didn't think were that good. Even in the 15-team, 50-round drafts, you'd be surprised how many players slip outside the top 750. With the lockout, that problem is more acute as we have so many unsigned players, and so many roles clearly vacant. A specific consequence of that problem is that many bullpen roles are completely unsettled. For instance, Kenley Jansen remains a free agent, and the Dodgers didn't sign another established closer. Will they re-sign Jansen, trade for Craig Kimbrel, or simply give Blake Treinen the job? By the way, it doesn't necessarily have to be Treinen! Even though a pitcher may look like the obvious next-in-line closer, it works out that way far less often than one might think.
Because of this uncertainty, and because more teams are avoiding designating one pitcher as their lone closer, those pitchers with a perceived lock on the closer's job are at a premium. Increasingly, more sharp drafters are willing to pay that premium, at a rate that has been shocking. Liam Hendriks and Josh Hader on average have been going in the middle of the second round, and our friend and colleague Dalton Del Don of Yahoo Fantasy Sports took Hader in the first round of one draft. Raisel Iglesias and Emmanuel Clasé have regularly been going in the third round, with Edwin Diaz, Ryan Pressly and Aroldis Chapman not too far behind. These prices are hefty even for the NFBC, by at least a round or two, and more in many cases.
After doing five drafts in this environment, it's difficult to remove the draft-and-hold mentality when you navigate into your first live draft, especially with it being a league without an overall contest, and with players that may not have been drafting in the NFBC or any other draft-and-hold environment. It's a point Fred and I kept coming back to during the draft podcast on Tuesday night, and it's an important point to remember when you look at this draft, or any other draft, before stepping into your own leagues. Your local rules matter the most - getting your own draft's particular qualities correct is vital. This was true when the only industry leagues were those printed in USA Today and Baseball Weekly, and they're true today when you have more industry leagues and countless draft grids to look at on Twitter.
Obviously it's not just with saves that this issue applies. In any stand-alone league, there's less of an incentive to have a balanced team. If your league overvalues speed, saves, or any other quantity, there's a big incentive to steer the other way. In LABR, not only is there a FAAB budget (albeit only $100 with $1 bids and no $0 bids), but trades are allowed. In fact, two big trades helped me address weak points in my roster last season, when I snuck out the win with a big last month. If you haven't heard me talk about it on the podcast or the SiriusXM show, they were:
- I traded Ian Kennedy when he was still the Rangers closer, after I had recently added Clasé in FAAB bidding, getting Joey Votto for him from Fred Zinkie. Fred actually won the first month of that trade - Kennedy kept getting saves while Votto got hurt. But eventually Votto got insanely hot and Kennedy got traded to the Phillies, where he wasn't nearly as effective.
- I traded Votto to Steve Gardner in August when I had a surplus of power and needed another starting pitcher, getting Max Fried for the best six weeks of his career in return. I didn't have any particular insight that suggested that Fried would be that good, only that he was a good starter in good form on a competitive team, unlikely to shut him down in September.
Those two trades, in conjunction with adding Clasé in FAAB, were probably the biggest moves I made in terms of having a large impact on the standings. I was able to chase down five other teams in a ridiculously tight race, finally going ahead for "good" on the final weekend. Had the season been two days shorter or two days longer, I probably would not have won. It was that close.
Last season, drafting out of the eighth spot, I went with the "pocket aces" approach, getting Gerrit Cole and Lucas Giolito with my first two picks. Cole came up a little short of expectations, but all-in-all, I got what I bargained for. Giolito wasn't as productive, though he didn't exactly kill me despite coming up short. Other key players that worked out well from that draft include Teoscar Hernandez (5th round), Javier Baez (6th), Dansby Swanson (7th), Kris Bryant (8th), Kenley Jansen (9th - see what I mean about closers being cheaper?) and Sandy Alcantara (11th). I made plenty of mistakes in the draft, too! I encourage to read the article - sometimes I like to look back on my old articles to see what I got right, what I got wrong, and in some cases, what the heck was I thinking?!?
Here are the results from this year, where you can read what the heck I was thinking this go-around:
(Click here to view a larger image of the draft grid)
Here's my team:
1.10 - Kyle Tucker: I passed up the opportunity to take Gerrit Cole and go with a pocket aces plan or just to start with Cole, thinking instead that the gap between Cole, Corbin Burnes and the next tier of aces is not that wide. I opted to go with one of the remaining top tier power-speed players in Tucker, and take my chances that one of Brandon Woodruff / Max Scherzer / Zack Wheeler would fall to me in the second round.
2.6 (21) - Brandon Woodruff: I didn't think I'd have my choice of all three aces and Jacob deGrom here, but I did. Here's the first instance where I had to get out of my NFBC / draft-and-hold mindset, watching Mike Trout, Rafael Devers, Freddie Freeman, Yordan Alvarez and Manny Machado all go between my first round pick and my selection here. There's nothing wrong with those hitters, they all rake, but none of them are projected to steal many bases. It's a stand-alone league, though, in an environment where we need fewer stolen bases to compete. So I get why these teams didn't feel the need to get either an elite starter or hitter that runs here. My fixation on aces did cause me to overlook one clear value* - looking at the grid, can you spot who it is? Your hint is that his selection later in the second round was past his max pick in the NFBC. I don't regret Woodruff at all, but I might have passed up too much .
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* Shohei Ohtani was that "clear value."
3.10 (40) - Xander Bogaerts: I love getting Bogaerts in this range, and in fact, in the three leagues where I've had a third-round pick in this range I've really liked my options. It takes some of the sting out of missing the top tier of the first round. I took Bogaerts ahead of Trevor Story because the known team context. If Story lands with the Yankees after the lockout, I would probably prefer him, but it would be close. Story runs more, but Bogaerts is a better bet to help my average.
4.6 (51) - Will Smith: A Real Man takes both Will Smith's to reprise their classic confrontation in the 2020 NLCS, but I was flag-planting with the Dodgers catcher version here. I love his skills to begin with, like getting one of the top tier catchers early and especially like Smith now that there's a universal DH.
5.10 (70) - Emmanuel Clasé: Closer madness hasn't yet hit LABR, though it's starting to pick up a little compared to last year. Clase was my highest closer remaining on the board and the fifth one taken. I'm not worried about Karinchak sharing saves with him, hopefully I'm not overly dismissive of that. Nonetheless, I'm a big fan of his skills and felt lucky to take him here.
6.6 (81) - Freddy Peralta: I really liked the starters available in this spot - I had a choice of four in Peralta, Lance Lynn, Max Fried and Charlie Morton. It turns out I could have taken Lynn a round later - and maybe I should have just taken both! Nonetheless, I don't mind that Peralta is coming off of his biggest workload yet, in part because I think the Brewers are pretty good at taking their time in stretching out their starters.
7.10 (100) - Cody Bellinger: Bellinger almost always seems to be paired with Christian Yelich (99) in discussing draft value, but I'm more confident he comes closer to returning to previous form than Yelich. Batting average will always be a problem for Bellinger, but I think there's a higher likelihood he gets all of his power back. I think Yelich's back problems aren't going fully away.
8.6 (111) - Bobby Witt Jr.: Witt frequently was going far sooner in earlier drafts, but he's starting to fall back to a more reasonable price, which I think I got here. Other shortstops that went before him here include Jorge Polanco (who should go sooner), Dansby Swanson (ditto, but on average does not) and Carlos Correa, who remains unsigned and regardless doesn't run at all. I was wrong about Witt getting the call last season, but the Royals surely won't keep him down long this year, right? Right? Please?
9.10 (130) - Giovany Gallegos: This is a little risky given the cost, insomuch that Gallegos hasn't yet been named the closer for the Cardinals and they have a new manager. That, and spending a second top-10 pick on a closer might not be the wisest choice in this format, but I thought that Gallegos fell too far, and didn't want to pass up what appeared to be an obvious value. The ramification of this pick is that I need to make sure to wait until the endgame to take any additional relievers.
10.6 (141) - Austin Meadows: Meadows corrected his K% spike from 2020 last year, dropping from 32.9% down to 20.6%. But his he continued to struggle to hit for average, hitting just .234. Meadows has been unlucky, with a .249 BABIP last season, but has changed some as a hitter fundamentally, hitting more fly balls, which on-average lead to a lower batting average. Still, I like the power and counting-stat potential from this spot, though I wonder if he'll get traded at some point as he doesn't have a long-term deal with the Rays.
11.10 (160) - Dylan Carlson: I expected continued incremental growth from Carlson, after he more than held his own in his age-22 season last year. The one area where I'm not sure I'll get his projection is in stolen bases - I'm not certain that the Cardinals will give him the green light there.
12.6 (171) - Tyler Stephenson: I rarely spend this early on a second catcher, but Stephenson seems worthy of making that exception. Stephenson hit fifth or higher in the lineup most of the season last year, and didn't have a big lefty-righty split. That seems important, now that he'll have a full-time role with DH possibilities for the Reds.
13.10 (190) - Tarik Skubal: I did the Turn Two Podcast a few weeks ago to discuss overrated and underrated players in the AL Central, and wanted to cite Skubal as someone going too early. But the more digging on Skubal that I did, the more instead I wanted to draft him. I love the K%, and the K-BB%. I love that Tucker Barnhart will now be behind the plate for him, and Javy Baez in the field for him. Of course, there's always a chance he doesn't fix his four-seamer, but at pick 190, the chance is worth it.
14.6 (201) - Josh Donaldson: I waited until the 14th round to get my first corner infielder - this is not a typical draft for me. What you see with Donaldson is what you get - a middle-of-the-order bat with 20-30 homer potential and a good amount of injury risk.
15.10 (220) - Trey Mancini: I had targeted Yuri Gurriel as my first baseman earlier, but Andrea Lamont snagged Gurriel at 13.4. Instead, I waited until the 15th round to get my initial first baseman, going after Mancini over Frank Schwindel, thinking I'd perhaps get Schwindel a few rounds later. Mancini will be in his second full season after coming back from cancer treatments. He's another player in the 20-homer range who probably won't kill my average, though he won't likely help it much either.
16.6 (231) - Josh Rojas: I'll be using Rojas most often at second base, but it doesn't hurt that he also qualifies in the outfield and at third base. I'm looking for around 10 stolen bases and 10 homers from him, with a little upside in both categories.
17.10 (250) - Bailey Ober: If you've seen my "Must Draft AL Central" video, you know that Ober is a target of mine. He is a little like Skubal in that I love the K-BB% package, but Ober also struggled allowing the long ball. We can't just assume correction of a known flaw, but at the same time, I'd rather take the chance on a pitcher that misses bats.
18.6 (261) - Adam Duvall: Variations on a theme - you'll notice that there's plenty of power available later in drafts, as long as you're willing to take on batting average risk. Duvall now has three 30-homer seasons in his career and led the majors with 113 RBI last season. Even if Freddie Freeman doesn't return to the Braves, it should remain a potent lineup with plenty of counting stats opportunities for Duvall.
19.10 (280) - Drew Rasmussen: Everyone remembers how well Willy Adames played for the Brewers, but the Rays got Rasmussen back in the deal and he quietly became an effective starter for them after getting pushed into the rotation. We'll see if he continues in that role or goes back to relieving. I'm betting on the former.
20.6 (291) - Aaron Ashby: In James Anderson I trust. He pushed me on Sandy Alcantara last season, and I'm on Ashby this year. Once again, there's a risk of him not having the role right away, sort of how Freddy Peralta's career began, but I'll buy his ability to miss bats and hope the role follows.
21.10 (310) - Luis Patino: Unlike Ashby, Patiño hasn't yet demonstrated an ability to generate strikeouts despite his velocity. This is more of a "go where the puck is (hopefully) moving, not where it's been" type of pick. Patiño has been held back by the lack of a good third pitch and endurance issues. However, he's only 22, and I think that there's another level of performance coming up in his second season with the Rays. All three of Rasmussen/Ashby/Patiño are bets in favor of their organizations.
22.6 (321) - Jonathan Villar: Here's hoping that Villar signs with someone bad, like the Rockies, and is allowed to run all the time.
23.10 (340) - Riley Greene: Both Clay and James think that Greene gets the call and is ready to produce before teammate Spencer Torkelson, and that's good enough for me.
24.6 (351) - Connor Joe: Joe should benefit tremendously by the NL using the DH this season, and arguably could make the case for being a better hitter than the incumbents at multiple positions for the Rockies. There's probably not another level for him, but the added playing time should be sufficient enough to make him valuable.
25.10 (370) - Bobby Bradley: Bradley provides more cheap power at the cost of batting average, giving me another option at my weakest position.
26.6 (381) - Roansy Contreras: Contreras is another high-velocity, high-strikeout guy, albeit one with a very minimal major league track record, on a team without a great reputation for developing starters.
27.10 (400) - Codi Heuer: Jason Collette named Heuer as his best bet to lead the Cubs in saves this year in his NL Central "Bold Predictions" article. That's good enough for me.
28.6 (411) - Dinelson Lamet: Is Lamet a starter or reliever? Can he ever stay healthy through a full season? Will the Padres' managerial shakeup help Lamet? Is it bad form to write a paragraph solely consisting of unanswered questions?
29.10 (430) - Kris Bubic: I would have preferred a higher strikeout-upside starter, but couldn't find one. I should have looked more closely at Bubic's teammate Brady Singer, who went to Alan Harrison with the next pick. You can always dig deeper in your draft prep.
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If you want to read other draft recaps, a number of my colleagues have already posted their recaps:
- Rudy Gamble of RazzBall.com always writes a thoughtful write-up, which you absolutely should read. He also regrets passing on Ohtani.
- Ryan Bloomfield of BaseballHQ.com emphasized the draft prep process in his draft review. Ryan also live-streamed the draft.
- Mike Podhorzer of Fangraphs.com had the boldest draft, chock-full of Boom-or-Bust players.
- Ray Flowers of FantasyGuru.com did his review as basically a live-draft diary - good stuff here. Ray actually defied the odds and took the first pitcher in the draft!
- Joe Sheehan's write-up is part of his newsletter - you absolutely should subscribe. For my money, he's the best baseball writer I know.
Here's hoping we have a full season in a somewhat timely manner!
