This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for April 29
I've had two straight weeks of 3-0 and most of those bets were at plus odds (I had wagers of +162 and a +205 wagers hit last week). I feel like George Costanza (Seinfeld reference) and that I should just quit and just go out on top. Of course I'm not going to do that and hopefully we can hit another winning day this week. Let's see what looks good.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers Best Bet
This game feature two struggling pitchers as Steven Matz (5.55 ERA) toes the rubber against Kenta Maeda (5.96 ERA). Looking at those numbers, there seems to be an opportunity somewhere for prop bets and the one I like the best is Maeda's under for strikeouts. He's had exactly five strikeouts in two of his five starts and gone way under (2,2 and 3) in his other three. The Cardinals are league-average as far as strikeouts against opposing right-handed hitters and it's highly likely Maeda gets pulled before getting to 90 pitches. His fastball velocity is below 90 mph for the first time in his career and his 6.74 FIP suggests he's been worse than his ERA indicates. There's a pretty big difference in odds for the wager as some sites have it set at -150.
MLB Picks for St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers
Kenta Maeda Under 4.5 Strikeouts -130 (FanDuel)
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox Best Bet
The Twins will send to the mound Joe Ryan, who has had a mixed bag of results this season. He hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his starts, but has allowed three earned runs in three of his five starts. The good news is he gets the White Sox tonight, and they have been arguably the worst-hitting team in baseball. The have a .271 wOBA against right-handed pitching, which is worst in the league and their 24.2 percent strikeout rate is the ninth worst in the league. Chicago will send Garrett Crochet to the mound and the lefty has struggled with a 6.37 ERA through six starts. He's allowed four home runs in his last two starts (seven innings) and the Twins have the fifth-highest wOBA against southpaws with a .345 mark. I'll take the Twins here at -1.5 runs to get this to plus odds.
MLB Picks for Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins -1.5 Runs +110 (PointsBet)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dodgers open a up a three-game series in Arizona Monday night and will send lefty James Paxton to the mound. Paxton has been living dangerously thus far considering his 2.61 ERA comes with a 1.55 WHIP and a 11:17 K:BB ratio. Those stats have led to a 5.81 FIP and his 89 percent strand rate is due to regress as it's 13 points higher than his career-best mark. The Diamondbacks have been the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching with a .381 wOBA mark and that number goes up to .414 when at home this season, albeit in a small sample. Lourdes Gurriel (+600 Anytime Home Run, FanDuel) and Randal Grichuk (+520 Anytime Home Run, FanDuel) have a combined three home runs in 30 plate appearances against Paxton, so I'd look at sprinkling a little on those wagers. Taking the Arizona over run total for plus odds is my favorite bet of the night
MLB Picks for Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4.5 Runs +105 (DraftKings)
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MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Kenta Maeda Under 4.5 Strikeouts -130 (FanDuel)
- Minnesota Twins -1.5 Runs +110 (PointsBet)
- Arizona Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4.5 Runs +105 (DraftKings)
