This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets & Expert Picks for Monday, April 22
We went 3-0 here in this column last week, and all three wagers were better than even money. Let's see if we can keep up the momentum and build on last week's success.
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MLB Picks, Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Runs +162 (FanDuel)
I'm not sure that Vegas has caught up with how good of a pitcher Jared Jones is and I think there's an opportunity here to take advantage of that. While I've been enamored with Joe Ross' strikeout ability in the past, the truth is he's on the wrong side of 31 and has had his career somewhat derailed by injuries over the past few seasons. While it's a small sample (14.2 innings), a 1.64 WHIP suggests his 4.91 ERA has been somewhat lucky. I am hesitant to take the 1.5 runs when the over/under is only 7.5, but I can see this game being a 4-2 or 3-1 result.
MLB Picks, Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Ronald Acuna 1+ Stolen Bases +205 (FanDuel)
This game has a healthy over/under of 9.5 runs and Acuna already has nine stolen bases this year. He's reached base safely in his last nine games and one would think he'll get the green light tonight if he makes it to first base. Opposing pitcher Ryan Weathers had some cramping in his left (throwing) hand during his last start and his 1.35 WHIP suggests his 2.70 ERA has had some luck behind it. Look for Acuna to get on base and it makes sense here to throw something on his H+R+RBI total as well.
N.Y. Mets at San Francisco Giants Best Bets
San Francisco Giants ML -115 (DraftKings)
I feel like I've written about two pitchers who have been lucky so it seems like I should even things out and talk about Keaton Winn, whose number have been unlucky. Winn has a 1.07 WHIP and it seems like his 4.09 ERA should be around a run and a half lower. He has 17 strikeouts in 22.0 innings and has allowed only two home runs, which suggests he's been very good. The Mets traveled across the country to play a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers before this game and no one in their lineup has faced Winn yet, an advantage that typically favors the pitcher. A quick look at Jose Quintana's numbers show he's been lucky (here we go again) with a 1.50 WHIP but only a 3.05 ERA. He also has had much worse numbers on the road than at home over the last three years so playing in San Francisco won't help.
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Runs +158 (FanDuel)
Ronald Acuna 1+ Stolen Bases +205 (FanDuel)
San Francisco Giants ML -115 (DraftKings)
