Midseason Prospect Mailbag

It's the final Thursday of the month, which means it's time for the monthly prospect mailbag article!

I answered about half of these questions on Wednesday's RotoWire Prospect Podcast:

Per some reader requests, I've put each prospect's team in parenthesis so that people in AL/NL only leagues can quickly see whether each prospect matters to them. I only did this for guys who haven't played in the majors this season.

Trader Andy: With the struggles of Miguel Vargas and Triston Casas, are you still high on them? Why have they struggled and do you still see them as fantasy assets moving forward?

Vargas is the more surprising of the two. He is still making elite swing decisions (24.3 O-Swing%, 71.1 Z-Swing%) with excellent plate skills (19.7 K%, 12.0 BB%). He's been very unlucky (.227 BABIP) and he's probably got to do a little tinkering — I'd like to see more linedrives. His Hard% is way down compared to last year, and I wonder if his thumb injury from earlier in the year is affecting that. Basically, as long as it looks like the playing time will be there, I'll be loading up on Vargas in 2024 drafts at a discount. This is the exact type of guy I want post-hype. 

For Casas, who I was lower on than Vargas, I think his end-of-year numbers are going to look a lot like I would have expected. He'll probably finish with around 25 HR, a solid OBP in the .345 range and a lower batting average. He's a OBP>AVG slugger who really struggles against LHP (career .091 ISO). Not an ideal guy for redraft standard roto leagues, but a good young slugger to have in an OBP dynasty league.

Jason Erb: Is Josh Naylor a top-10 1B in dynasty formats? Does he have another gear beyond this one? Would you rather… Spencer Torkelson or Naylor? Miguel Vargas or Naylor? Triston Casas or Naylor?

I ranked him sixth among 1B on my most recent dynasty rankings. He's got a .997 OPS over the past 38 games, so I don't think there's another gear beyond what he's been doing recently. He's on track to come close to going 25/10 with 100 RBI and a .280 AVG, so if he just does that I'd be hoping he can stay at that level. Definitely taking him over Casas and Torkelson. It's close to a toss-up for me with Naylor vs. Vargas in dynasty, but I'd take Naylor as a contender and I'd take Vargas if I were a couple years away from contending.

JB: Redraft league, please rank Miguel Vargas, Brett Baty, Colton Cowser (BAL) and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN)...

I'd rank them in the order you listed them in a deeper league. If you're in a shallower league and you're basically talking about a bench spot, I'd go with whatever position eligibility you're weakest at. 

I'm very excited for Cowser to get the call in my NFBC Main Event league, because outfield is the one position where I could use a little extra depth, but he has some platoon split issues and he might even strike out too much initially against RHP, so it might not be until 2024 or 2025 that he ascends to the leadoff role for the big club.

Brant Chesser: Which keeper bat would you prefer in a 15-team OBP points league with minor-league keepers, Junior Caminero (TB) or Jackson Chourio (MIL)?

Chourio, but it's super close, so if you have a strong lean toward Caminero, I wouldn't try to talk you out of that. Obviously Chourio has the big speed edge and a clearer path to everyday playing time in 2024, but I'd say Caminero's bat is a little safer long term. Very similar power potential.

Dandy F. Chiggins: I've heard a ton about how high people are on Jackson Chourio (MIL) but the batting average and OBP seem to lag behind his power and speed numbers. Is this just him being young? What kind of OBP hitter does he profile as? What is so special about him in your eyes?

His bat speed is truly elite, along the lines of Ronald Acuna or Christopher Morel. So there's pretty easy 30/30 potential to dream on when factoring in his plus to plus-plus speed on the bases. The AVG and OBP questions bring us back to his youth, which you alluded to. He's eight months younger than Junior Caminero and three months younger than Jackson Holliday, so I still look at what he's done this year at Double-A as more impressive than concerning — plus he's in the Southern League, where they were using the pre-tacked balls earlier this year, which led to some pretty ridiculous pitch movement. I'd expect that by the time Chourio is 23 or 24, his AVG and OBP will be big positives for him, but he could post lower OBPs as a rookie/sophomore. 

Eric Samulski: Any insight on a Kyle Manzardo (TB) timeline? Is the power developing the way we want for fantasy purposes? 

O's Flows: Has Kyle Manzardo (TB) taken a step back this year? wRC+ down to 101 at AAA.

If I were grading Manzardo's first three months of the season, I'd give him a C. He hasn't been bad at all, and he hasn't been good enough to improve his stock from where it was before the season. Manzardo's Soft% is down compared to 2022 and his max EV is up. It may seem a little basic, but when I see a guy with a plus hard-hit rate, 31.1 LD%, 43.5 FB%, 9.1 IFFB% and a .278 BABIP, my biggest conclusion is that he's just been pretty unlucky on balls in play. He probably deserves closer to a .275 AVG, which would make the rest of his stat line fall right in line with expectations.

Robert Eastin: Junior Caminero (TB) at 19 years old actually improved his BB% and K% when moving from High-A to Double-A. Unless his numbers plummet, is he looking like the No. 2 guy by the end of the season?

The guys in the mix for me right now as strong contenders to be top three prospects at the end of the year are Jackson Holliday, Jackson Chourio, Junior Caminero, Jordan Lawlar and the top-two hitters in the draft — Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford. I'd guess Holliday will be No. 1, but it wouldn't surprise me if I ranked any of Chourio, Caminero, Lawlar, Crews or Langford at No. 2 on the early-October update to the top 400. Caminero has the safest bat of the non-Holliday pro guys I listed, but he's also the only one of those six who doesn't ever project to steal double-digit bases.

Aaron Stoltenberg: What is your guess for a way too early top five prospects at this time next year?

Of those six players I listed in the above answer, I'd expect roughly half of them to no longer be prospect eligible a year from now, but it's tough to say with confidence which ones will have graduated. This is kind of the sweet spot in the calendar for when I'd expect them all to be up. With that in mind, I'll give you a few dark-horse candidates to be top five who will definitely still be prospect eligible: Xavier Isaac (TB), Carlos Jorge (CIN), Sebastian Walcott (TEX), Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN), Lazaro Montes (SEA).

Coreyb3p: What are your thoughts on Sebastian Walcott (TEX) and Lazaro Montes (SEA) so far? 

SUPER small samples, but I'm extremely excited about both guys. Walcott just looks the part of a future No. 1 overall prospect, with an athletic 6-foot-4 frame, extreme pedigree and projectable power and speed. We'll see how good the hit tool is over the coming weeks. It's great to have him stateside, as a really strong statistical showing as a young 17-year-old in the Arizona Complex League would carry a lot of weight for me, much more so than if he were 18 or 19. 

Montes has been stateside all year, but he was slowed by an injury initially. Over his last eight games he is slashing .409/.552/.636 with more walks than strikeouts. I doubt those plate skills are sustainable over the coming weeks, but if they are he'd look like Yordan Alvarez 2.0. 

I'm obviously very excited about both guys, but we're still in the discovery phase as it pertains to evaluating their future hit tools, and they're facing poor pitching, so there's still a lot of risk with Walcott and Montes.

Ulysses: With all the pitchers that have been called up already, who are top three left to stash for this season?

Downtown: Any other prospect arms you see coming up and producing 2023 value/impact?

I wouldn't expect to see Andrew Painter (PHI) until August at the earliest, and perhaps not at all, but he'd be top three based on upside. Kyle Harrison (SF) has righted the ship to some extent, as have Robert Gasser (MIL) and Quinn Priester (PIT). I'd also throw in Mike Vasil (NYM) as a long-shot. Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Williams were the last two I was highly anticipating though, so there's not much left to get excited about.

Tom Braun: Which Pirates pitching prospect has the best chance of providing fantasy help this season?

I would say Luis Ortiz, but he has exhausted his prospect eligibility. I think we could see Jared Jones at some point in the second half, but it might be along the lines of Ortiz in 2022, where he makes fewer than five starts in September. So for my answer, I'll go with Quinn Priester, by default. Priester doesn't have much upside — I kind of think of him as a right-handed Matthew Liberatore — but he is coming off his first double-digit strikeout game at Triple-A, and I'd imagine he makes 5-10 starts in the majors if he stays healthy.

M Festtt: Thoughts on Jared Jones (PIT) sticking as an SP and being effective?

He has been a little worse at Triple-A in two starts than he was at Double-A in 10 starts, but the fact he has a walk rate under nine percent at both stops is very encouraging. I know his fastball was in the 130 Stuff+ range at Double-A, and his slider is also great. Jones needs to keep refining everything, but the upside and proximity are big pluses and there's a potential fall-back option of closing that also factors into his value.

Dandy F Chiggins: Colt Keith (DET) — what kind of power ceiling are we looking at here? Would you rather have Keith, Curtis Mead (TB) or Jonathan Aranda (TB) in an OBP keeper league?

I'm definitely taking Keith over Mead and Aranda. Keith is basically a healthier version of Mead with a clearer path to everyday playing time. He could be a .300 hitter who hits 25-plus HR, and I'd say 30-plus if he were in a more hitter-friendly park. That's the ceiling, and he probably won't approach those marks until at least his second year against pro pitching, but Keith pretty comfortably project for a plus hit tool with plus power long term.

Dandy F Chiggins: What are your feelings on Tyler Locklear (SEA)? Is he a guy who you could get in the top 25 on the next update? Seems to be crushing it at every level — is he Colt Keith (DET) good? Worse/better?

He hasn't really played since my last update due to a broken hamate bone, so he's not going to be a riser. I think the assumption by many would be that Locklear hits the ball harder than Keith, but Keith actually has a higher Hard% (37.7%) than Locklear (36.5%) this season. Keith is at Triple-A while Locklear is on the IL at High-A, yet Locklear is nine months older than Keith, so I don't view them as comparable. Keith also has a much more impressive track record of performing at a high level in pro ball. My projection for Locklear is that he develops into more of a power-over-hit prospect as he gets to Double-A and Triple-A. He's a legitimate candidate to eventually be a No. 5 hitter in a big-league lineup, whereas Keith profiles as a No. 2 or No. 3 hitter, and he should beat Locklear to the majors by a year.

Not That Tony: When can we expect First-Year Player Draft rankings?

Good question. At the very least, I'm going to publish an article the week of the draft with maybe my 20 favorite prospects and five fades, or something like that. Just depends how many prospects I'm able to evaluate before draft day. 

As of right now, I have Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford and Paul Skenes as a clear top three, with Max Clark, Matt Shaw, Brock Wilken, Walker Jenkins, Tommy Troy and Brayden Taylor as my next tier of priority hitting targets. I can guarantee I'll be pretty low on Chase Dollander, Kyle Teel, Jacob Wilson and Yohandy Morales, relative to where they are ranked on non-fantasy lists from Baseball America and MLB.com. 

Toolsy: Who are some of your favorite upside pitchers? I need to find a way to add a future frontline pitcher on one squad by getting in on one or two players early enough before their cost skyrockets.

Maybe you can buy low on AJ Smith-Shawver? Cooper Hjerpe (STL), Jared Jones (PIT), Mason Montgomery (TB), Mike Vasil (NYM), Dylan Lesko (SD), Brandon Barriera (TOR), Owen Murphy (ATL), Jackson Ferris (CHC), Jarlin Susana (WAS), Frank Mozzicato (KC), Robby Snelling (SD), Landon Sims (ARI), Connor Prielipp (MIN) are either so far away that they're 10/10 in the riskiness department or have ugly enough numbers at their current level that they might be underpriced. I like Cade Horton (CHC), Chase Hampton (NYY), Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), Anthony Solometo (PIT) and Carlos F. Rodriguez (MIL) as guys whose surface stats are pretty great that might still be worth buying.

The best time to add these types is in the first-year player draft or off waivers. Trading valuable assets for pitching prospects is usually a losing proposition, because odds are something will go wrong. If you're trading for pitching, I'd recommend trading for big leaguers, or maybe if you're rebuilding, you can trade for discounted injured pitchers on a contender's roster.

Toolsy: What do I do with Vaughn Grissom? He seems like he needs a trade or position switch to play...

Just depends on format. You obviously hold him in dynasty leagues. I cut him in my Ottoneu league last week, as that's more of a keeper league where win-now players are of the utmost value. It's possible he gets dealt at the deadline this year and I wish I still had him, but I wasn't going to wait around for another six weeks to find out. We're not going to look up in 2025 and see Grissom hanging around Triple-A for Atlanta — it will sort itself out before then, so being patient in dynasty is my advice.

Danny J: The Rockies seem to have a ton of young hitters with HELIUM. Jordan Beck, Sterlin Thompson, Yanquiel Fernandez, Hunter Goodman, etc... Is change a foot in the Rockies org?

Most of those guys are using the advantageous hitting conditions at High-A Spokane to prop up their numbers, and with the exception of Fernandez, they're all old(ish) for their levels. I talked preseason about how loaded that Spokane outfield was, so it's not overly surprising, but Fernandez has definitely exceeded my expectations. They're still nowhere near having a capable pitching staff, but the offense could be pretty strong in a couple years. 

Sonny: How much stock do you put into early performances in the Dominican Summer League? Guys like Rayner Arias (SF), Derek Bernard (COL), Yorfran Medina (LAD) and others who were unranked in your prospect update a month ago are raking early on. Do you see any of them (or others) as top 400 prospects or is it too early?

Arias is the big riser of the guys you listed. I included him on my breakout rookie level hitters article from a few weeks ago. He just turned 17, has the pedigree, tools and performance. I'd rank him in the top 150 at this point just based on his start and pedigree. Medina is 18 and repeating the DSL, so he should get a promotion to the Arizona Complex League soon and I'll evaluate him based on how he does there. Bernard is also repeating the DSL, but he's still 17, so he's a little more interesting, but the sample is generally still too small for me to shoot guys up the ranks who I didn't include in that article as watch-list guys. 

Danny J: Anthony Solometo (PIT) made MLB Pipeline's top 100. Do you see him as a riser?

Yeah, I've been trying to pump up Solometo dating back to last year (I wrote his outlook on the site if you want to check that out), and he'd rise again if I updated the ranks today. He's got the most deceptive delivery of any notable minor-league starting pitcher, and if he adds a tick to his fastball the sky's the limit.

Simon P: Is Endy Rodriguez's (PIT) star falling? 

His BABIP is down about 100 points from last year, so the truth is probably somewhere in between his 2023 and 2022 seasons. Rodriguez is still a good prospect, but things haven't gone the way you would have hoped if you drafted him in a draft-and-hold or were banking on him for production in a dynasty league this season.

M Festtt: What are your thoughts on CJ Abrams? He's still very young and maybe gets to 10/20 or 15/20 this season? Is there reason to think this is his ceiling or do you foresee more development?

I'd bet on more development coming from Abrams. He has basically improved across the board in every batted-ball metric, and he is still younger than a bunch of the best prospects at Double-A and Triple-A. The fact that he only got 42 total games at Double-A and 38 total games at Triple-A while also skipping High-A altogether makes his case more interesting. I think there's more growth potential for a player who was rushed like that than with players who debut at 23 or 24. He could go 20/20 next year if he can cut his chase rate a little and just add a little strength in the offseason.

Mike Genre: Will Grayson Rodriguez bounce back and be helpful down the stretch?

You phrased it like a yes or no question, but it's obviously not knowable. He had two excellent starts June 9 and June 15, before having a more lackluster start June 21. I'm stashing him wherever I can and just betting on the talent. Will he be helpful down the stretch? I don't know, but he's more likely to be helpful down the stretch than any other pitcher who is currently at Triple-A.

Tanner Gronowski: When you are in a competitive window in a dynasty salary league, how "all in" are you willing to go with prospects? Top 10 prospects easy moves (Junior Caminero (TB), Jackson Chourio (MIL), etc), or do you try to hold unless it's a crazy offer?

In those types of leagues, you generally can't build a true dynasty, and that's the nice thing about the format. Those leagues are set up for you to have to trade top prospects for your championship pieces, so you have to be willing, otherwise you're not really serious about winning. That said, guys like Caminero and Chourio are good enough prospects that you should try to hold them for kingmaker types of trades, where you're getting the exact pieces you need to win the league.

CH4RLEYS: Chase Hampton (NYY) or Nick Frasso (LAD) long term? 

Hampton. I probably sound like a broken record with Frasso, but the last time Frasso threw as many innings as Hampton has this season (58.2) was when Frasso threw 60 innings as a freshman at Loyola Marymount in 2018. I'm projecting Frasso as a lights-out multi-inning reliever and Hampton looks like at least a mid-rotation starter.

FantasyBaseballGuy: I'd like your thoughts on Tyler Black (MIL). He has shown some unreal SB numbers in AA. What do you expect from him once he moves up to AAA and eventually the Brewers?

Black is kind of a man without a home defensively, and the Brewers have decided to try him at their weakest long-term position (third base) in hopes of him being adequate enough there for his bat to be in the lineup regularly. He has obvious leadoff hitter skills (.428 OBP, 18.5 BB%) to go with the plus speed, and Black has proven this year to be a very savvy base stealer. His 33.6 Hard%, .227 ISO and career-low 37.9 GB% are very encouraging marks, as he was seen as a below-average power hitter coming into the year. He is a tough guy to evaluate, as his defensive ability at third base is a huge part of the playing time equation, but he's definitely a top-100 prospect and pushing up into that top 50 range with all the graduations ahead of him. 

Nope Nope: What's the expectation for Wander Franco at your dynasty rank (No. 8 overall)? He seems way more of a speed guy than I anticipated. Most likely outcome like a young Trea Turner?

Franco is a 22-year-old with one of the highest floors in the game, so you can feel really good about getting strong five-category production for the next decade. You can really only say that about a handful of guys. I'm right there with you in terms of him blowing past my expectations for stolen bases — I was way too low on him this year in redraft because I thought he'd be more of a 15/15 or 18/18 type of guy with a great batting average. I still doubt Franco will have multiple 40-plus steal seasons like young Trea Turner, but it's definitely in play.

CJ Baseball: In dynasty leagues, in your experience are pitching prospects or hitting prospects more valued and is it league format dependent?

Even in my leagues where there is an insane premium on pitching, the very best hitting prospects always carry the most value. From there, it gets league and format dependent. I'm in some leagues where I default to grabbing pop-up pitchers over pop-up hitters, as there can be diminishing returns when you have a certain amount of hitting depth, yet you can never have too much quality pitching. I'm in another 20-team league where each team only keeps 28 players per year with no minors-specific slots, and in that league, pitching prospects carry very little value, especially if they're not knocking on the door of the majors, yet people are constantly churning teenage hitters in hopes of landing the next Junior Caminero or Jackson Chourio.

CH4RLEYS: Drew Gilbert (HOU) and Jonatan Clase (SEA), are you still a fan of them?

Finny: I'm currently rostering Jonatan Clase (SEA) but it feels like a trap. Great power and speed showings so far, but he's no Elly De La Cruz, and with that K% it feels like it could be a nothing burger. What would you say is the likelihood of him busting completely? Is he high risk?

I'm much more worried about Clase than Gilbert long term, which makes sense since I had Gilbert 30 spots higher on the last update. Gilbert's managing the strike zone, he's just been unlucky and hasn't hit for much power yet in his first taste of Double-A. Gilbert will still probably get a down arrow next to his name, but that's more because I over-ranked him on the last update. I knew Asheville and Everett were extreme hitter's parks, but in hindsight, I still didn't downgrade Gilbert and Clase's High-A production enough.

Clase is a tricky guy to rank, because there are still shades of Jonathan Villar, Jorge Mateo, Esteury Ruiz, etc..., where he doesn't even need to be a good hitter to be valuable in fantasy if he finds his way into playing time on a rebuilding club. He also walks more than those guys did, and even with his 33.7 K%, Clase has still been roughly league average (101 wRC+). He'll probably have a down arrow on the next update, but he'll still be a top-100 guy.

Russ Hinnen: Any chance Everson Pereira (NYY) makes it up for a cup of coffee in September? He's looked really good at AA this year...

It's in play, especially since he is already on the 40-man roster. I love Pereira for what he is. I'm pretty confident he'll be able to do enough damage to carry elevated strikeout rates, not unlike recent Yankees sluggers, and he'll also chip in on the bases early in his career. He's better in OBP leagues than AVG leagues, but he'll possibly have an up arrow next to his name on the next update.

Roto Matic: Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are both knocking at the door. How do you anticipate CIN managing this roster crunch? Will Benson is the only odd man out it seems...

Well they can certainly afford to be patient with Marte, who just got the call to Triple-A. They could have Joey Votto and Encarnacion-Strand share first base and designated hitter duties while also giving Spencer Steer starts at those spots when they start Benson in left field against right-handed pitching, but that's a crowded situation right there, without even talking about Marte and the rest of the infield. This almost never happens, but the Reds may have just hit on all these guys (at least they didn't hit on Jose Barrero). I'm sure when they acquired everyone we're discussing, they assumed one or two of them would bust. That could still be Encarnacion-Strand or even Marte, but I agree there probably isn't room for all of them aside from injuries or trades. I'd still project Marte at third base, Elly De La Cruz at shortstop and Matt McLain at second base long term, and they could go to that alignment in 2024, assuming they decline Votto's club option.

Two Sheds Jackson: Coby Mayo (BAL) is red hot. How high is he moving in the ranks, and how on earth are the O's going to find a place for him?

I've been moving him up, and he will push toward the top 25 on the next update. Mayo should figure into the first base and designated hitter mix long term, but we just saw how long they kept Jordan Westburg at Triple-A (158 total games!), so this isn't a situation that necessarily needs to sort itself out in short order. The funny thing about Mayo is that his stats are beautiful — he checks all the statistical boxes you look for in a young power hitting corner infielder — yet he has one of the uglier swings of any top prospect I can recall. 

Danny J: You seem to be the highest I've seen on Jose Ramos (LAD) by a good amount. What do you see?

I think he's a top-200 prospect, but maybe I should have him closer to 150 or 175. He just seems like an OK bet to be an everyday outfielder at some point in the next year or two, even if that's not with the Dodgers. He provides defensive value in right field, has plus power and a decent batted-ball profile, aiming to lift and pull. 

Simon P: Do you think Jonny DeLuca will get a shot to overtake Jason Heyward/David Peralta/James Outman? Does he deserve that shot? What could he do with regular PT? 

I don't think he's being misused or anything like that. The Dodgers promoted him after just 17 games at Triple-A, so they really did him a solid by giving him the call in the first place. I really like DeLuca long term — he's a good athlete with all the fantasy-relevant tools — but he's more of a 2024 guy for fantasy. It's not realistic to think he'd be better as a rookie than Heyward has been, and they're getting what they signed up for with Peralta on his one-year deal.

Simon P: Have you heard anything about Darius Vines? Could he help Atlanta in the second half?

We finally got word from Baseball America that Vines has been sidelined all season with shoulder inflammation. I doubt he'll be ready to help the big club as a starting pitcher this season.

Ulysses: Bryan Woo OR Andrew Abbott ROS and Dynasty?

Woo for both, and it's a pretty easy call for me. I love starting most pitchers in Seattle and try to bench most pitchers in Cincinnati, so that alone is enough to go with Woo, but I also think he has a higher long-term ceiling due to the quality of his fastball.

Brian Mac: Can Blaze Jordan (BOS) be an everyday impact bat in an MLB lineup without being a platoon player given how he really only mashes lefties?

This is partly why Jordan is not a top-50 prospect, even though his production and age/level suggests he belongs in the top 50. He's a designated hitter or first baseman, and he destroys lefties while being just good against righties. I wouldn't have him ranked as a top-100 prospect if I didn't think he could be an everyday DH, but if he were a good defensive center fielder or shortstop we wouldn't have to worry about the splits.

Jason Erb: Is Maikel Garcia someone worth rostering 16 team dynasty. I don't remember hearing much about him and feels like a potential guy.

You should have listened to my preseason podcast with Rob Silver! He sold me on him being a strong option for 2023, and I moved him into the top 100 on the late-March update. Garcia hits the ball hard (49.6 Hard%), runs well (11-for-11 on SB attempts), makes pretty good swing decisions (22.0 O-Swing%, 64.8 Z-Swing%) and doesn't strike out too much (21.9 K%, 82.8 Contact%). The one thing he doesn't do is get the ball in the air enough (50.4 GB%), so if he can make that adjustment he could go from strong middle-infield option to top-100 dynasty asset.

Parker: How concerned are you with Cooper Hjerpe's (STL) high walk rate?

I'm really only concerned with Hjerpe's current undisclosed injury. He hasn't pitched since May 23, but he had a 1.54 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 26 strikeouts in 23.1 innings in his four most recent starts. The walks were still a flaw over that sample, but it's not a big enough of an issue to trouble me, given how little Hjerpe has pitched in pro ball.

Jason Volat: Kris Bryant/service time rules or change of approach, a majority of MLB teams are being more aggressive developing and promoting their prospects. Elly De La Cruz electrifying Reds fans in June wouldn't have happened five years ago. Great for Baseball! Can you speak to the impact you have seen?

The incentives have changed for teams in a positive way, where it's worth making sure Julio Rodriguez opened on the Opening Day roster last year, as it netted the Mariners the 29th pick in this year's draft. It made sense for Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson to debut in September and then start this season on the Opening Day rosters, as they could also net their teams draft picks depending on how the Rookie of the Year voting goes. Nothing was worse than teams sending one of their best players to Triple-A for three weeks at the start of each season just to manipulate service time. 

I disagree on the point about De La Cruz — I don't think any team would have kept him down for the final three months, even in the old system, given how he'd been performing at Triple-A. Maybe you could point to how the Blue Jays managed Vladimir Guerrero in 2018, but he only played 30 games at Triple-A that year, and De La Cruz would have gotten up past 100 games if they'd left him at Triple-A all season. But I definitely agree that it's great for baseball to have these guys up as close to when they're ready as possible.

Simon P: Can Johan Rojas help the Phillies this year?

Maybe as a pinch runner or something like that, but I don't expect his bat to be ready this year. I've been pleasantly surprised by how solid Simon Muzziotti has been at Triple-A (121 wRC+, 13.8 K%, 18 steals), and he's more of a realistic option for 2023.

Colby: Please tell me that the Cubs are cooking up something special with Pete Crow-Armstrong and their pitching prospects and will be perennial contenders next year and going forward for the next decade.

I wouldn't say they're cooking up something special. They're further along with their young core than teams like the Tigers, White Sox, Royals, Nationals, Rockies and Athletics, but they're not in a clearly better long-term position than any of the other NL Central teams. They might get nothing or close to nothing from Brennen Davis, Kevin Alcantara, Cristian Hernandez, Alexander Canario, James Triantos, Ed Howard and Reginald Preciado, and if they'd hit on two or three of those guys, that would help matters.

Coreyb3p: Are Cam Collier (CIN) and Jett Williams (NYM) still holds?

In a true dynasty league where 200-plus prospects are rostered, Collier and Williams should be on somebody's roster. I like Williams more than Collier at this point, and it's possible I could find a prospect on waivers in your league I'd drop Collier for, but generally they're holds.

Eric Samulski: Trey Cabbage (LAA) is crushing AAA and the Angels are using Eduardo Escobar and Mike Moustakas. Any chance Cabbage gets a shot?

There's a chance, sure, although with him not being on the 40-man roster, I wouldn't expect he'll get a long look. Cabbage has always hit the ball really hard (39.7 Hard% this year), but a 0.32 BB/K as a 26-year-old at Triple-A is a Quad-A red flag for me, and he's never been known for his defense.

Simon P: Is Luken Baker a Quad-A hitter? 

Yes. Baker is extremely unathletic — he just doesn't look like a baseball player, even a first baseman or designated hitter. He might be the type of guy who is best served going overseas to play professionally. Baker deserved the cup of coffee he got, but it's such a crowded depth chart and I can't picture him ever getting a real look as more than a short-side platoon DH with St. Louis.

Finny: How would you currently rank Adael Amador (COL), Yanquiel Fernandez (COL) and Carlos Jorge (CIN)? Are they all approaching top 50?

Jorge, Fernandez, Amador. Jorge will probably be top-50 on the next update. Fernandez is predictably struggling with strikeouts as one of the youngest hitters at Double-A, so we'll see where he's at in a few weeks, but he could be top-50 as well. Amador has a plus hit tool, but I don't think he'll provide impact power or speed at the highest level. I'm not surprised he's putting up impressive numbers at Spokane, and I'd expect him to put up great numbers in the Pacific Coast League when he gets there, but the neutral park at Double-A Hartford will be a good barometer for him.

ShortsONsports: This is probably so basic but, who are potential difference makers who you can stash now that could take you over the hump this year? Also who are players to stash now that could help you in keeper leagues next year? I picked up Corbin Carroll this time last year and am loving it now...

All the best 2023 stashes have already gotten the call this year. I assume Brandon Pfaadt and Grayson Rodriguez are rostered in your league, but Oscar Colas, Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) and Colton Cowser (BAL) would be my top three hitters to stash just for 2023 production. Carroll was my No. 1 overall prospect this time last year, so trying to find that guy this year is probably something you won't be able to repeat. Jordan Lawlar (ARI), Jackson Chourio (MIL), Jackson Holliday (BAL) and Junior Caminero (TB) are the four guys I'd be considering for that type of payoff in 2024.

David R: A couple pitchers who will take big leaps on your next top 400 update?

Cade Horton (CHC), Anthony Solometo (PIT), Chase Hampton (NYY), Payton Martin (LAD).

Bob May: What have you seen with Willy Adames this year and do you see him rebounding to his previous levels?

His hard-hit rate is down, his pull-rate is way up, his chase rate is up. There has obviously been some bad luck, as he's got a .234 BABIP compared to a career .314 BABIP, but it seems like he's trying to do too much to get himself out of this funk. I'm not that worried about him long term, but I'm not sure when he'll get into a groove. As things stand, I'd be buying in at a discount in 2024.

Dagan W. Cassale: How high will Ruben Santana go?

We'll see. It's only been 17 games and he's got a .468 BABIP, so I'm glad I'll get a larger sample to look at before slotting him in, but he's definitely an add already in deeper leagues. The nice thing is he hasn't been striking out too much, but I'd like to see a few more homers in the hitter-friendly Arizona Complex League, given that Santana's top tool is his power.

CH4RLEYS: What's Logan Allen's projection? Is he worth holding or should I trade him for a win-now piece if I'm competing? 

I strongly recommend moving Allen now in dynasty leagues if there's an interested party in your league. I believe in at least looking at public projection systems, and THE BAT has him for 4.63 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over the rest of the season. Steamer is a bit more generous (3.97 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), but he throws 92 mph and has a 1.44 WHIP without debilitating walk issues (8.7 BB%), so I lean closer to THE BAT. There will be a good chunk of your league that isn't interested in trading for Allen, so you can't necessarily target individual pitchers, it's more about finding the right manager in your league who wants Allen, and then going from there.

Joey DeClercq: Can you see Haydn McGeary (CHC) breaking the top-100 by end of season? His numbers are great and he seems to be mostly unknown...

McGeary put up huge numbers as a catcher and first baseman against poor competition in the Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference before the Cubs gave him $125K in the 15th round of last year's draft. He's a R/R first baseman who turns 24 in October, which is why he's not generating more buzz, but he'll probably slot in as a borderline top-200 guy on the next update.

Aaron T: Can you rank some of your favorite deep-league SP pop ups of 2023? Zack Showalter (BAL), Payton Martin (LAD), Yordanny Monegro (BOS), Juan Carela (NYY), Jairo Iriarte (SD) come to mind...

Going through and listing my favorite pop-up guys would be a separate article that I unfortunately don't have time to write, but of the guys you listed, Martin is my favorite. Carela and Iriarte were more well known entering the season, so I would say they're breaking out rather than popping up. I don't expect to add Showalter or Monegro to the top 400 on the next update, but Martin will slot in roughly in the 200-300 range.

Nick Nolte: Who are some mid-level or under the radar prospects who will need to be added to the 40-man roster in December that may receive a late-season call-up, or be moved to a non-contender who will give them an opportunity? Joe Ryan being traded to the Twins in 2021 is an example...

This is another one that could be its own article if I had time. Generally we want to look at the most loaded 40-man rosters, which is why the Rays were into moving Ryan in what ended up being one of the worst trades of the century. Jose Ramos (LAD), Kyle Hurt (LAD), Nick Frasso (LAD), Landon Knack (LAD), Andres Chaparro (NYY), Cole Wilcox (TB), Justin Foscue (TEX) are some who fit the mold.

Tom Braun: Should I trade AJ Smith-Shawver and Luis Matos for Bryce Harper in a dynasty 11x11? I'd have Harper ROS and they'd have the other two for two more years...

I'd do that deal if it makes you the favorite to win your league, or at least clearly puts you squarely in the top tier of contenders.

Not That Tony: Who are some guys in your 100-200 range and 200+ that you might expect to make a big jump if something clicks? 

I included some guys who I expect to make a jump where the "if something clicks" part doesn't really apply: Sebastian Walcott (TEX), Roman Anthony (BOS), Cade Horton (CHC), Anthony Solometo (PIT), Hector Rodriguez (CIN), Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), Brandon Barriera (TOR), Dylan Lesko (SD), Victor Scott (STL), Landon Sims (ARI), Connor Prielipp (MIN), Brainer Bonaci (BOS), Chase Hampton (NYY), Mike Vasil (NYM), Jose Corniell (TEX), Michael Arroyo (SEA), Kala'i Rosario (MIN).

Here are some guys who would get a big jump if something clicks, but I'm not necessarily expecting anything to click in the short term: Bubba Chandler (PIT), Anthony Gutierrez (TEX), Yiddi Cappe (MIA), Roderick Arias (NYY), Hendry Mendez (MIL), Jonathan Mejia (STL).

Cpar07: I have followed SF Giants and MLB starting in 1987 when I was 10. This has to be the best caliber of athlete, skill and overall player we have ever seen. What do you think? Can we crown Shohei Ohtani the best athlete of the 21st century only 23 years into it? I say yes!

Ohtani is definitely the best baseball player of the 21st century. It's almost boring to me how far above the pack he is. This isn't one of those fun debates you have with your friends at a bar. It's just an open and shut case. It'd be like if Patrick Mahomes was also the best pass rusher in the league, or if Stephen Curry was also the best rim protector in the league. Victor Wembanyama might be the next guy like Ohtani from an awe-inspiring standpoint, but it's still not the same because he's not changing the roster math in the same way Ohtani does by covering two roster spots for the price of one.