Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Paul Skenes didn't disappoint in his MLB debut Saturday for the Pirates. The No. 1 pick from last year couldn't get past the fifth inning and ended up surrendering three earned runs, though he still flashed incredible strikeout stuff consistently hitting 99 and 100 MPH with his heater while also locating his devastating slider en route to seven Ks. An intimidating presence on the mound, Skenes is athletic, repeats his delivery and pumps strikes. The development of his third pitch - a hard sinker/splitter that also generated plenty of swings and misses - will only further his repertoire and keep hitters guessing. Skenes wasn't really stretched out at Triple-A despite massive success earlier in the season, so the lack of length in his debut isn't surprising. With Jared Jones, Skenes and eventually Bubba Chandler coming through the pipeline, Pittsburgh could be well on their way to forming one of the most impressive young rotations.

Let's take a look at some other prospects making headlines in this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Xavier Isaac, 1B, TB – Isaac's selection at the back end of the first round in 2022 was considered a surprise, though Tampa's faith already appears to have been rewarded as he clubbed 19 homers and drew 64 walks in 102 games last season mostly at Low-A while also surprisingly stealing double-digit bases. Perhaps even more shocking, he struck out less than 100 times. Isaac is off to a similar start at High-A with six home runs while driving in 29 runs through 28 contests. He's recorded 32 strikeouts, but has also drawn 14 walks and is batting .257. Isaac boasts tremendous raw power, yet that hasn't come at the expense of making contact or overswinging - at least so far.  As long as the left-handed hitter can prove the ability to hit lefties at the higher levels, he should be firmly entrenched in the Rays' future plans.

Aidan Miller, 3B, PHI – Alec Bohm finally appears to be having his long-awaited breakout season at the hot corner for the Phils, but Miller could be their third baseman of the future. The teenager will turn 20 in June and is off to a scalding start at Low-A with a .337/.411/.578 line alongside four homers, 16 RBI and nine steals across 20 appearances. Miller projects for plus power, offers a strong handle of the strike zone given his relative youth, and has surprised with his speed. An argument can be made he's one of the top-10 third base prospects in all of the minors.

Zac Veen, OF, COL – Who doesn't like a comeback story? It seems like Veen has been around forever, though the fact remains he's still only 22. He's battled injury and inconsistency the past couple years at Double-A, but finally appears to be solving this level producing a line of .341/.434/.593 with five home runs, 12 RBI and nine stolen bases. The power figures are particularly notable as Veen only went deep three times from 80 previous outings at this level. He also continues to display the ability to pick up walks while strikeouts may always be involved, which isn't ideal for a potential leadoff hitter who needs to prove he can stay healthy. That being said, the Rockies should be thrilled with Veen's start. And given the parent club has struggled to score runs, he should be an option as early as next year.

Jacob Misiorowski, P, MIL – Misiorowski has missed plenty of bats at Double-A in 2024 by fanning 41 batters over 27.1 innings while opposing bats are hitting .111. The 6'7" 22-year-old righty has also been able to keep the ball down by posting an above-average groundball rate while having yet to a allow a homer through seven starts. The only ding thus far is that Misiorowski has already walked 20, though perhaps his wildness has made him even that much more unpredictable and difficult to hit. He'll need to lower that figure as he moves up, yet there are very few pitchers in the minors with comparable strikeout stuff.

CHECK STATUS

Ethan Salas, C, SD – While I'm not ready to give Salas a full downgrade, there's reason to be cautious. He's only 17 while already under an enormous amount of pressure after the hype from 2023. Viewed as a generational talent, Salas is at High-A and developing at arguably the most difficult prospect position. His future projection remains in question and his tough start to the current campaign should cause everyone to be more realistic. Salas has only produced a .188/.306/.257 line through 28 games at High-A and has yet to hit a homer while fanning 34 times.  On the plus side, he's drawn 18 walks and stolen four bases while his BABIP shows he's been slightly unlucky. And just because Salas saw Double-A for a few outings last year doesn't automatically mean he's going to be skyrocketed straight to the bigs. While the Padres have been known for aggressively pushing their prospects in the past, it would likely serve them well to let him gain more experience.

Jackson Jobe, P, DET – Jobe has been on the Injured List at Double-A since the beginning of May. And while the issue concerns his hamstring and not his throwing arm, there remain worries about his long-term health and durability. When on the mound, Jobe has found little resistance he registered an absurd 54:3 K:BB during eight starts at High-A last season. In five appearances with Double-A prior to the injury, he notched a 2.16 ERA and 24:10 K:BB across 16.2 innings while the opposition went .121 against. The 21-year-old righty also battled a back ailment in 2023 and has yet to throw 80 frames in any year with a total of 158 since being drafted in 2021. Jobe's upside is tantalizing, but the physical red flags need to be monitored.

Sal Stewart, 3B, CIN – Stewart should be talked about more in prospect circles. His hit tool will carry the day, but it also bears mentioning he's managed more walks (110) than strikeouts (104) through 155 games as a pro. Stewart is currently batting .257 with a .383 OBP from 30 contests at High-A. There are some questions as to whether he'll hit for enough power as a corner infielder higher up, though he did crush 12 homers in 117 games as a teenager in 2023 at Low-A and still has time to perfect his stroke. Playing future games at Great American Ballpark would also help Stewart's cause. Though he's recently struggled at High-A, the future is still bright and he remains underrated and undervalued.

Dylan Crews, OF, WAS – A teammate of the aforementioned Skenes at LSU, Crews was selected immediately after his collegiate buddy with the second selection in 2023. We could be nitpicking at this point given the small sample size, yet he's been decent - albeit, unspectacular - through 20 games at Double-A slashing .240/.326/.453. Crews has fanned 29 times during that stretch with only eight walks. He also missed over a week at the end of April with a minor hamstring ailment.  Whether fair or not, Crews will always be linked with No. 4 overall pick Wyatt Langford - who made the big club for the Rangers out of spring training - though there's far more left to be written for both.

DOWNGRADE

Gabriel Gonzalez, OF, MIN – Gonzalez came over from the Mariners in the Jorge Polanco deal.  He just turned 20 and exploded last season at Low-A with a .348/.403/.530 line supplemented by nine homers, 54 RBI and eight steals in 73 games before being promoted to High-A. Gonzalez hit a wall to end 2023 at High-A, and returned there to begin this year where he's gone .265 with one home run and two stolen bases over 20 appearances. Unfortunately, he's been sidelined since the beginning of the month due to a back strain and the issue didn't resolve quick enough resulting in a trip to the IL. Gonzalez will have to regain health and then prove his aggressiveness at the dish won't be used against him at the higher levels.

Yu-Min Lin, P, ARI – In a freak accident, Lin was struck by a foul ball while sitting in the dugout during a Double-A contest as he suffered multiple jaw fractures and underwent surgery and will be out for at least a few weeks. He was struggling to start the season by posting a 7.00 ERA across four starts with opposing batters hitting .351 against. Lin is only 20 but is considered one of the better southpaw prospects in the farm system. He doesn't throw hard and a lack of size is always brought up, though he offers exceptional off-speed offerings - including an outstanding changeup and a couple of other high-spin pitches. Lin's repertoire is reminiscent of Nestor Cortes, with perhaps less deception and more polished overall stuff. Here's to a speedy recovery!