This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Tuesday, July 2
YTD 101-102-1
Prior article 1-2 ( -0.30 units)
SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at home/road and vs. RHP/LHP over the last 30 days to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Chicago White Sox 
at Cleveland Guardians 
This matchup is a tough one in that we have two bad starting pitchers with Carlos Carrasco against Chris Flexen. But the Guardians are one of the best teams in baseball and the White Sox one of the worst. The line of -205 means a run line or parlay look only, but you never want to get into the habit of backing bad starting pitchers regardless.
Knowing that the Guardians have been the best home team in terms of OVER team total, I started to look there. The huge moneyline and total of 9.0 meant, the TT would be at least 5 runs. I really like to get to 4.5 on the high side with a team total. The problem with taking a full-game team total is the home team might not get up and so you only get eight innings versus nine. My fallback in this scenario is usually to go over on the F5 team totals.
If I were betting this game on the side, I would lean toward the White Sox at +1.5 runs, but it did not qualify for a play.
MLB Picks for Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
- Guardians OVER 2.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -135)
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Milwaukee Brewers 
at Colorado Rockies 
The first game in this series saw 15 runs and I think we get more of the same tonight. This is a matchup of two terrible pitchers in Dallas Keuchel and Ryan Feltner. The fact Keuchel keeps getting chance after chance in the big leagues blows me away, but it shows how desperate teams are for starting pitching.
Feltner is 1-7 with a 5.82 ERA, and 1.45 WHIP in 16 starts. But the home splits as expected are scary with a 7.43 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.
The Rockies have averaged 5.5 runs at home in the last 30 days, and only averaged 3.1 on the road. The juice is high on a F5 total of 5.5 (-150), and 6.5 is about even money. I did not like either one of those, so I looked at an alternative way to play both teams putting up runs early in the game.
MLB Picks for Brewers at Rockies
- Brewers/Rockies BOTH teams to score 2+ runs F5 for 2 units (DraftKings -125)
New York Mets 
at Washington Nationals 
The Mets are one of the hottest teams in baseball, which 30 days ago did not seem possible as they went 9-19 in May. They are coming off a 17-8 record in the last month and the Nats are starting to fade. They are 3-8 in their last 11 and outside of one strong start DJ Herz has not been a good pitcher. Sean Manaea has not been great, but he provides a solid floor and will keep the Mets in the game.
Whenever a game is close to -150 on the moneyline it makes a tough decision. My rule of thumb is moneyline between -100 and -140 and run line -140 or greater. With the way the Mets are playing, laying -1.5 runs at plus money is the route to take.
MLB Picks for Mets at Nationals
- Mets -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers +112)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Guardians OVER 2.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -135)
- Brewers/Rockies BOTH teams to score 2+ runs F5 for 2 units (DraftKings -125)
- Mets -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers +112)
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