This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks
and Props for Tuesday, July 30
YTD 122-116-1
Prior article 3-1 ( +4.78 units)
MLB Betting Tips
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MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road and vs. RHP/LHP to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
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MLB Unit Betting Guide
(Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Kansas City Royals 
at Chicago White Sox 
The White Sox are on pace for the 2nd worst record in baseball of all time. They are selling at the trade deadline obviously, and their recent record of 2-18 in their last 20 including losing 14 in a row. The Royals have beat them 10-1 in the season series and Michael Wacha has a 0.90 ERA in 0.70 WHIP in 3 starts against the White Sox.
The White Sox have been outscored 5.0-3.1 runs per game over the last 30 games and laying -1.5 runs is the only way to bet against them.
MLB Picks for Royals at White Sox
- Royals -1.5 runs for 2 units (BetRivers -113)
Pittsburgh Pirates 
at Houston Astros 
It's Hunter Brown day again and that is a good thing. I will continue to ride Brown as he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since June 1st. He has a 2.07 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, , 0.7 HR/9 and 6th in WAR for starting pitchers. The Astros are 8-2 in Brown's starts since June and the under is 7-3.
Bailey Falter gets the start for the Pirates after being on the injured list for the last month and the Pirates have gone 17-13 in their last 30 which is tied for the 3rd best record in baseball during that time. The Astros are tied for first in wins in the last month with 19 so both teams are playing good baseball.
The combination of Brown and the Astros is significant and enough to lay -1.5 runs which seems to be a theme on today's slate.
MLB Picks for Pirates at Astros
- Astros -1.5 runs for 1.5 units (BetRivers +117)
Washington Nationals 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
It used to be an automatic bet to go against Patrick Corbin, but as of late he has pitched better for his standards. In his last 8 starts he has a 3.88 ERA, and 1.14 WHIP where as before he had a 6.15 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Even with his improvement, I will go against him here on the road against the DBacks. Ryne Nelson has also pitched better as of late since June 14 with an ERA of 3.64 and 1.11 WHIP.
The Nationals have been one of most profitable road teams most of the season, but the Dbacks have also done well against left-handed pitching. Arizona is also starting to finally look like the team who went to the World Series last year going 7-3, 13-7, and 18-12 in their last 10/20/30 games.
MLB Picks for Nationals at Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +114)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Royals -1.5 runs for 2 units (BetRivers -113)
- Astros -1.5 runs for 1.5 units (BetRivers +117)
- Diamondbacks -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +114)
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