This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Friday, August 30
- Year-to-Date Record: 144-142-1
- Prior Article: 2-1 (+0.30 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Get the most up-to-date MLB odds when creating your MLB betting slip on the best sports betting sites.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Los Angeles Dodgers 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
As you bet baseball, you start to remember the trends and one of them has been taking Zac Gallen at home. His home/road splits have been tremendous since 2022 with a 2.65 ERA at home against a 3.70 ERA on the road.
Now we get Gallen as a home dog against a pretty shaky pitcher in Clayton Kershaw, who allowed five earned runs in his last start against the Rays. The Diamondbacks have also been one of the best teams in baseball over the last month (22-8 in their last 30). I love the value here. I have this line projected as Arizona -120, but we get them at +114.
MLB Picks for Dodgers at Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks ML for 1.5 units (+114 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals 
at Houston Astros 
The story of the Astros season has been an interesting one. They started very slow and dealt with several injuries to their pitching staff. But then things started to turn around. They got some pitching back from the injured list (IL) but also saw the development of their young arms, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti.
The Royals have been the surprise team in baseball this year as they are fighting for the American League Central division title. But the Royals have feasted on the White Sox and been incredible at home. This spot against the Astros on the road against Framber Valdez is not ideal, even with Seth Lugo going.
The Astros are 10-1 in Valdez's last 11 starts and Lugo has started to show signs of regressing with a 5.58 ERA since July 13th.
The tough part about handicapping this game is the Astros are priced right at -160 and laying -1.5 runs in a game with a 7.5 total is not ideal. The best way to do it is to take advantage of the low total and ride with the Astros on their team total going over.
MLB Picks for Royals at Astros
- Astros OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
St. Louis Cardinals 
at New York Yankees 
I always look at the starting pitching matchups first and try to find underdogs with value. We get that with Erick Fedde against Marcus Stroman. Stroman has been awful at home the whole season with some of the most lopsided splits (5.09 home ERA vs. 2.56 road ERA). Fedde has been a mixed bag since the trade from the White Sox to the Cardinals, but the Yankees as a -190 favorite is just way too rich.
The only way to play this game is going against Stroman, but I do not feel comfortable taking the Cardinals on the Moneyline or the run line. The over has hit eight in a row in Stroman's home starts and the Yankees are just 6-7 in his home starts.
The Cardinals F5 team total over is the best option at a pretty good price. I would have even gone up to 2.5 runs at plus-money.
- Cardinals OVER 1.5 runs F5 for 2 units (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Diamondbacks ML for 1.5 units (+114 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Astros OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Cardinals OVER 1.5 runs F5 for 2 units (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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