This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for
Friday, September 6
- Year-to-Date Record: 147-153-1
- Prior Article: 0-4 ( -5.00 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. When summer temperatures and humidity rise, scoring may see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Get the most up-to-date MLB odds before submitting your sports betting slip on the best sports betting sites.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Philadelphia Phillies 
at Miami Marlins 
The Phillies travel to Miami as -225 road favorites on Friday night. Zack Wheeler has been locked in over his last six starts with a 1.62 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9. Edward Cabrera has been better in his most recent starts with a 3.58 ERA and 1.33 WHIP since July 30th (season stats: 5.33 ERA and 1.47 WHIP).
Philadelphia started as the best team in baseball but hit a bad stretch when their pitching started to struggle. They are back to playing solid baseball again with 8-2, 14-6 and 19-11 records over their last 10/20/30 games.
I rarely look at laying -1.5 runs when it's a road favorite/low total, and -225 on the road is not an option either. This is a situation where I look at the road-favorite starting pitcher to potentially get a win. Wheeler is an attractive price at -125.
MLB Picks for Phillies at Marlins
- Zack Wheeler to Get a Win for 1 Unit (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Reds 
at New York Mets 
The Mets have won seven in a row and 14 out of their last 20. They are fighting for the last Wild Card spot in the National League. While their recent competition included facing the Red Sox and White Sox, a streak like this still carries some weight, and Sean Manaea has been pitching well. Over his last seven starts, he has allowed just 12 earned runs with 53 strikeouts and nine walks. This is an "opener" game for the Reds, who are going with Fernando Cruz to start.
Laying -1.5 runs with a total of 7.5 has to make sense. I just mentioned above how on the road I will shy away. But with the hot starting pitcher and a team against a bullpen game, I will roll with the Mets on the run line.
MLB Picks for Reds at Mets
- Mets -1.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+123 BetRivers)
San Francisco Giants 
at San Diego Padres 
Michael King has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since June 29th with a 2.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. His numbers at home are even better with a 1.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. The Giants have nothing to play for and the Padres are fighting for a Wild Card spot in the National League.
Mason Black is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in four starts (19.1 innings). He has also allowed five home runs in that short stretch along with 32 combined hits and walks. The Padres have been one of the best teams in baseball against right-handed pitching and get a favorable matchup against Black.
- Padres -1.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+104 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Padres Over 4.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Zack Wheeler to Get a Win for 1 Unit (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Mets -1.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+123 BetRivers)
- Padres -1.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+104 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Padres Over 4.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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