This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Tuesday, August 13
- Year-to-Date Record: 134-124-1
- Prior article: 4-0 (+6.18 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Stay up-to-date with the current MLB odds when placing wagers on your favorite sports betting apps.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Texas Rangers 
at Boston Red Sox 
This run line total opened at 9.5 and immediately moved to 10 and even 10.5 in some spots, so shop around and get the best of the number. If you have been following my writing, you know I have been on the over for Red Sox games in some sort of fashion for quite a while. There is no reason to back off now, with Kutter Crawford against Jose Urena.
Crawford has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball since July 21 (18.2 innings, 10.61 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 13 home runs) and the Red Sox bombed Urena on August 2nd for seveb earned runs in four innings.
The over is 8-2 in the last 10 Rangers' road games; the over is 9-1 in the last 10 Red Sox games. The Red Sox are 2-14-1 to the over in their last 17 overall. In this case, I will play the alt total at under 9.5 runs and lay the juice.
MLB Picks for Rangers at Red Sox
- Rangers/Red Sox OVER 9.5 runs for 2 units (-134 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Colorado Rockies 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
Going against Austin Gomber in some sort of fashion has also become automatic with his 7.01 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 and 2.2 HR/9 since June 2nd. The Diamondbacks continue to be the hottest team in baseball, but I do not trust Eduardo Rodriguez, so we will look at the Diamondbacks team total over, especially since the game total is seriously deflated at 8.5 runs.
Arizona is a crazy 22-6 in their last 28 games (13-3 at home), averaging 7.3 runs per game at home while allowing just 3.9 for a ridiculous 3.4 run differential. Colorado road woes have been well documented here and their 17-44 record continues to show how bad they are.
MLB Picks for at
- Diamondbacks OVER 4.5 runs for 2 units (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook )
- Diamondbacks -1.5 runs for 1 unit (+107 BetRivers)
New York Yankees 
at Chicago White Sox 
This might be the craziest line of the season, but Nestor Cortes is -295 on the road. That is wild, even if it is against the White Sox. I do not care how bad the White Sox are, I am taking the run line at even money.
Jonathan Cannon has been decent over his last five starts, allowing two runs or fewer in four of them. Cortes has a 9.26 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and 2.3 HR/9 in his last five starts. The White Sox beat the Yankees Monday night 12-2 as huge home underdogs. I think we get more of the same tonight with the Yankees grossly overpriced.
MLB Picks for White Sox at Yankees
- White Sox +2.5 runs for 1 unit (+100 BetMGM)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Rangers/Red Sox OVER 9.5 runs for 2 units (-134 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Diamondbacks OVER 4.5 runs for 2 units (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Diamondbacks -1.5 runs for 1 unit (+107 BetRivers)
- White Sox +2.5 runs for 1 unit (+100 BetMGM)
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