This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Tuesday, August 20
- Year-to-Date Record: 136-133-1
- Prior Article: 0-4 (-6.00 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
When wagering on your favorite best sports betting sites you need to first check RotoWire's MLB odds page to ensure you have the most competitive and up-to-date odds on the market.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Arizona Diamondbacks 
at Miami Marlins 
When the Marlins held their fire sale at the trade deadline I was convinced they would become an extreme under team, especially at home on team totals. Well, the complete opposite has happened and oddsmakers have not adjusted their lines.
The Marlins are 9-0-1, 15-3-2 and 21-6-3 to the over in their last 10/20/30 home games. Most of those were before the trade deadline, but the trend has continued and it is not one-sided as the Marlins are scoring runs.
The Diamondbacks are the number one offense in baseball since July 1st and both pitchers (Eduardo Rodriguez and Edward Cabrera) have ERAs above 5.0. I'm going to ride the trends pretty hard in this one.
MLB Picks for Diamondbacks at Marlins
- Diamondbacks/Marlins OVER 7.5 runs for 2 units (-112 BetRivers)
Boston Red Sox 
at Houston Astros 
This one hurts to do as a Red Sox fan, but the Astros have owned them, and the Red Sox's bullpen continues to implode nightly. The Astros are 10-2 against the Red Sox in their last 12 matchups and the over is 9-3 in those games.
Nick Pivetta has been a solid pitcher and gets a ton of strikeouts, but he also gives up a lot of home runs (two in each of his last four starts), so I would also look into 1-3 Astros hitters for home runs props. Ronel Blanco has a no-hitter on his resume, but the Red Sox mash right-handed pitching, so we will double-dip on this game, leaning on the Astros' Moneyline, but also the over.
MLB Picks for Red Sox at Astros
- Astros ML for 1 unit (-125 BetMGM)
- Red Sox/Astros OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (-102 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Angels 
at Kansas City Royals 
The Royals have been one of the best teams in baseball at home (39-25) and are on a nice run going 7-3, 13-7 in their last 10/20 games. Cole Ragans has been one of the best pitchers in baseball and is facing an Angels team with nothing left to play for while the Royals are in the middle of the Wild Card race in the American League.
MLB Picks for Angels at Royals
- Royals -1.5 runs for 1 unit (+112 BetRivers)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Diamondbacks/Marlins OVER 7.5 runs for 2 units (-112 BetRivers)
- Astros ML for 1 unit (-125 BetMGM)
- Red Sox/Astros OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (-102 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Royals -1.5 runs for 1 unit (+112 BetRivers)
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