This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Props for Wednesday, May 1
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2024 Regular-Season Betting Record: 3-5 (-2.24 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular-Season Props Betting Record: 6-3 (+1.91 RW Bucks)
After an encouraging 3-0 day in my last props article, I'll look to keep the momentum going during Wednesday's all-day slate with a pair of afternoon bets and one evening wager where I'll look to pick on a vulnerable starter.
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners Best Bets
The Mariners' pitching has done a number on the usually potent Atlanta offense over the first two games of the series, but I look for Chris Sale to help the visitors turn the tables on getaway day Wednesday afternoon.
The veteran left-hander has been a fruitful addition to Atlanta's starting rotation in the early going of his first season with the team, pitching to a 3-1 record, 3.69 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over his first five starts.
Sale, a 200-plus-inning workhorse earlier in his career before injuries struck, is also healthy thus far and seemingly still has plenty of stamina. The 35-year-old has worked 31.2 innings over his five starts, logging seven frames in three straight outings. That's partly due to the improved control he's flashing compared to last season in Boston, as he's brought his 2.5 BB/9 down to 1.9 thus far this season.
Finally, the Mariners make for a good target for this bet, considering Seattle has a 25.1 percent strikeout rate, .203 average, .279 wOBA, 83 wRC+ and -6.7 wRAA against left-handed pitching thus far this season. And, the handful of current Seattle bats that have previously faced Sale – Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco – have mustered a combined .160 average and .392 OPS while striking out 12 times in 26 total plate appearances.
MLB Picks for Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners
- Chris Sale Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-137 on Caesars Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
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Phillies vs. Angels Best Bets
The Phillies' Alec Bohm extended his hitting streak to 14 games Tuesday night with another pair of hits, pushing his season slash line to an elite .366/.438/.598. The 2018 first-round pick appears well on his way to a breakout campaign, and he's especially done a number on left-handers.
Bohm heads into Wednesday with a .375 average, 1.069 OPS and .454 wOBA versus southpaws, striking out against that handedness a minuscule 8.9 percent of the time. He couldn't ask for a better matchup Wednesday than Angels starter Patrick Sandoval, who's opened the season with a 6.33 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and 4.7 BB/9 across his first six starts.
Sandoval does a good job keeping the ball in the park even when he's struggling, so I'm honing in on a couple of non-HR props for Bohm. The total bases one comes at a very good price for a player who's had the type of success he's enjoyed versus lefties and who's already laced 17 of his 41 hits for extra bases.
The walks prop comes at exponentially more attractive odds and seems like a very prudent one to roll with, considering Sandoval's aforementioned control issues and Bohm's career-high 11.7 percent walk rate overall.
MLB Picks for Phillies vs Angels
- Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Total Bases (-103 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Alec Bohm Over 0.5 Walks (+160 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox Best Bets
The Giants will trot out the embattled Daulton Jefferies for a spot start at Fenway Park on Wednesday night, a development that, on paper, seems to give us a golden opportunity to jump on some Red Sox hitter props.
The right-hander is getting the call with Blake Snell on the shelf with an intercostal injury, and Jefferies potentially represents quite the break for Boston considering he checks in with a 2-9 record, 6.33 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over 58.1 career big-league innings. Jefferies has been pitching relatively well at Triple-A Sacramento, but he has a daunting task in front of him Wednesday.
Tyler O'Neill is a perfect microcosm of the uphill battle Jefferies is confronted with, considering the slugger boasts a .320 average and 1.196 OPS across his first 90 plate appearances. O'Neill has unsurprisingly taken well to his new Fenway Park digs as well, producing a .316 average and .457 wOBA there, and a .366 wOBA and .250 ISO versus righties specifically in that split. Five of O'Neill's 12 hits at home have also gone for extra bases.
Meanwhile, Jefferies has conceded a .321 BAA and .394 wOBA to the 140 right-handed batters he's faced in his big-league career, and he's allowed 20 of the 42 hits he's conceded in that split to go for extra bases.
It's also worth noting Giants relievers have pitched to a 6.18 ERA and .335 wOBA against right-handed hitters, allowing 10 doubles and 10 homers in that split out of 57 total hits.
MLB Picks for Giants vs Red Sox
- Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Chris Sale Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-137 on Caesars Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Total Bases (-103 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Alec Bohm Over 0.5 Walks (+160 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
