This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB Picks and Props for Wednesday, August 7
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2024 Regular Season Betting Record: 4-9 (-5.42 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular Season Props Betting Record: 25-24 (+0.81 RW Bucks)
I'm focusing on a National League battle Wednesday evening that features a red-hot Padres squad looking to continue its march toward the top of the National League West against a struggling Pirates team.
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bets
The Padres are firmly on the road to a postseason berth, now sitting on a 62-52 mark and just four games back of the Dodgers in the division after having won eight of the last 10 overall, including three straight.
Manny Machado and Michael King – the Padres' starting pitcher tonight – have been key components of San Diego's second-half surge. Machado heads into Wednesday's contest boasting a .347 average and 1.090 OPS over his last 12 games, even after an 0-for-5 night Tuesday. The veteran slugger also sports a minuscule 11.3 percent strikeout rate in that span and has laced nine of his 17 hits in the sample for extra bases.
Meanwhile, King owns a 6-2 record, 2.44 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 and 0.4 HR/9 in the 70 innings covering his last 12 starts. That sample includes just one start with more than three earned runs allowed, and he's given up two earned runs or fewer in five consecutive trips to the mound. What's more, King has been at his best on the road, where he boasts an 8-2 record, 2.62 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 75.2 innings
Current Pirates bats have had minimal exposure to the fireballing right-hander, but those encounters haven't gone well – they're a combined 0-for-13 with five strikeouts and just one walk against King in their respective careers.
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The Pirates are countering King with southpaw Marco Gonzales, a crafty veteran who can nevertheless pitch to plenty of contact and who's surrendered a collective .278 average and .783 OPS to current Padres bats. One of the hitters that's done the most damage against him is Machado, who boasts a .500 average with two doubles and zero strikeouts against Gonzales in eight career encounters, and who's carrying a .335 wOBA and .796 OPS against lefties on the road this season.
With San Diego sporting a 4.5-run projected total that's on the rise as of mid-day since opening at 4.2, and Machado sporting .286 and .308 averages with men on base and men in scoring position, respectively, since the All-Star break, I'm backing the idea of at least one RBI for the veteran star. I'm also banking on a victory for King, who's qualified for the decision in six straight starts and recorded victories in four of those instances.
MLB Best Bets for Padres vs. Pirates
- Padres Moneyline (-156 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Padres -0.5- F5 (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBI (+135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Michael King To Record a Win (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
