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We've got a full-day slate Wednesday and I'm focusing on an evening interleague battle featuring one of the best pitchers in the National League in a very appealing matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers 
at Cleveland Guardians 
Best Bets
Clayton Kershaw has been excellent in his return from the injured list, allowing just two earned runs over 10 innings against the Rockies and Brewers. The left-hander had been similarly elite prior to his IL stint, as he'd pitched to a 4-0 record, 1.09 ERA and 0.88 WHIP across the 33 innings covering his previous four starts.
The Guardians make for likely candidates to keep Kershaw hot Wednesday. Cleveland has been the most ineffective team against southpaws since the All-Star break, mustering just a .214 average, .571 OPS, .251 wOBA and -26.3 wRAA in that split over a sample of 474 plate appearances.
Kershaw has been at his sharpest at home, but he's still sporting a 6-3 record and solid 3.09 ERA on the road while doing a slightly better job keeping the ball in the park when traveling (1.1 HR/9, compared to 1.3 at home).
Opposing starter Xzavion Curry has been impressive this season in his own right, but the Dodgers' dangerous offense has an MLB-high .289 average, .846 OPS, NL-high .363 wOBA and 17.5 wRAA against right-handed pitching on the road in the second half of the season. Los Angeles is also averaging an NL-high 3.12 runs per first 5 innings per road game, furthering the case for them to be ahead going into the sixth frame.
Game Focus Best Bet:
- Dodgers -0.5- 1st 5 Innings (-145 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Having just made the case for Kershaw's effectiveness and the Guardians' ineptitude versus lefties, I like the idea of a lower-scoring first half of the game. Cleveland is also averaging an MLB-low 1.8 runs per first 5 innings per home game, which further supports the notion.
The Dodgers' impressive array of bats does cause some concern in terms of the Under of 4.5 runs hitting, but Curry has a 2.48 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 0.5 HR/9 across 40 home innings. Therefore, he should be able to limit the damage to an extent, even against an opponent the caliber of the Blue Crew.
Moreover, Cleveland is also surrendering an MLB-low 2.03 runs per first 5 innings per home game, putting me in the camp of the Under at plus money.
Game Focus Best Bet:
- Under 4.5 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings (+100 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Despite my belief Kershaw will largely handcuff the Guardians and significantly suppress their offense, I don't necessarily see him retiring too many hitters via strikeout.
Kershaw is having a good year in that regard overall, but he'll enter Wednesday's start having recorded five or fewer strikeouts in five straight starts, including four or fewer in three consecutive.
Kershaw's 8.8 K/9 on the road is notably lower than his 10.3 home figure, and the Guardians, despite their previously documented struggles against left-handed pitching, have still made consistent contact against lefties – Cleveland has an AL-low 17.0 percent strikeout rate versus lefties at home in the second half of the season.
Game Focus Best Bet:
- Clayton Kershaw Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-108 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Game Focus Best Bets for Dodgers at Guardians:
Here's a recap of my Game Focus Best Bets for Wednesday:
- Dodgers -0.5- 1st 5 Innings (-145 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Under 4.5 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings (+100 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Clayton Kershaw Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-108 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
