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MLB Bets Today: Expert Picks and Player Props Twins vs Mariners
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Last article: 2-1 (5.00 RW Bucks)
2023 regular-season record: 13-19-1 (-2.88 RW Bucks)
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Minnesota Twins 
at Seattle Mariners 
Best Bets
A refreshed pair of talented right-handers in Bailey Ober and Bryan Woo take the hill Tuesday for the Twins and Mariners, respectively. Ober last toed the rubber July 7, while Woo was last on the hill July 8. Each has remained sharp with bullpen sessions throughout the extended layoff partly afforded by the All-Star break, but their arms should have a bit of extra life to them Tuesday.
Ober has actually been at his best on the road, where he's posted a 3-1 record, 2.01 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and tiny 0.3 HR/9 across 31.1 innings. Meanwhile, Woo has been excellent since taking some lumps against the Rangers in his big-league debut, and he sports a 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 13.5 K/9 in a modest sample of 10.2 home innings.
The Twins are averaging the third-fewest runs per first 5 innings per road game (2.0), while the Mariners check in with 2.8 per first 5 innings per home contest. However, given the caliber of pitchers on the hill and their extra rest, I can see both teams underperforming those already modest numbers Tuesday.
Game Focus Best Bet Mariners vs Twins: 1st 5 innings- Under 4.5 total runs (-130 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
As just enumerated, Woo has had his swing-and-miss stuff in top form at home over a small sample, and the rookie right-hander sports a 30.5 percent strikeout rate overall across his first 34.2 big-league innings.
The Twins check in sporting an MLB-high 27.7 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last month as well. Woo has hit at least seven strikeouts in four of his first seven starts, including in two that have been as brief as 4.2 and five innings in duration.
Factor in the extra life Woo's trademark four-seam (31.8 percent whiff rate, 24.7 percent putaway rate) and slider (33.3 percent whiff rate) might have, and this is a rock-solid prop to pursue Tuesday.
Game Focus Best Bet: Bryan Woo Over 6.5 strikeouts thrown (-136 on BetRivers Sportsbook)
This final bet flows directly from the previously stated case for a lower-scoring first half of the game and strong performances by two talented pitchers.
Neither squad has consistently lived up to its full potential offensively this season. The Twins are also averaging 7.8 hits per road game, while Seattle comes in clocking 7.4 per home game.
Woo has allowed just six total hits over the 11.2 innings covering his last two starts, while Ober has yielded the same amount in 13 innings over his last pair of turns. What's more, he's given up only 19 hits in 31.1 road innings while yielding just a .173 opponent average in that split.
Then, consider Seattle's bullpen has been lights out in July, pitching to an MLB-low .169 BAA and .237 wOBA across a 140-batter sample. For their part, Minnesota relievers have .170 BAA and 2.35 ERA since returning from the All-Star break.
Game Focus Best Bet: Under 14.5 total hits (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Game Focus Best Bets for Twins at Mariners:
Here's a recap of my Game Focus Best Bets for Thursday:
- 1st 5 Innings - Under 4.5 total runs (-130 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Bryan Woo Over 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-136 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Under 14.5 total hits (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
