This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Most Mondays are usually lighter cards, and that's what we have here. We have just nine games in total, with the Mets and Cardinals facing off during the day. That still gives us eight games to dissect, but this card will start a bit earlier than usual. What's unique about this card is that we have very few good pitching options to pick from. Tyler Glasnow and Aaron Nola face off against one another, but using those expensive guys facing two of the best offenses in the league is a scary proposition. That's why we're going to go dirt-cheap with our pitchers, so let's start there.
Pitching
JP Sears, OAK vs. CWS ($7,700)
We're going to ride two pitchers against the two worst offenses in baseball. To say the White Sox have the worst offense would almost be an understatement, with Chicago sitting last in runs scored, on-base percentage (OBP), OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. It's simply one of the worst offenses of all time and they'll surely struggle in a spacious park like Oakland Coliseum.
The numbers from Sears won't jump off the page, but four duds against the Twins, Astros, Guardians and Orioles are what killed his averages. Those are all some of the best offenses in the league, with Sears sporting a 2.82 ERA and 1.12 WHIP across his other 18 starts. He's also got a 2.04 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home in that stretch and is coming off a season-high 35.3 DraftKings points in his most recent outing. It's risky to cherry-pick numbers like those, but it's easier against such a historically horrible offense.
Nick Martinez, CIN at MIA ($6,900)
We thought Miami was bad before the trade deadline but it's laughable the lineup they're sending out there right now. They rank 29th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA but traded away three of their best bats at the deadline. That's hard to fathom. It becomes even more problematic since Marlins Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in baseball.
That's why we're willing to trust Martinez against them, maintaining a 2.25 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 8.0 K/9 rate since May 25. Most of those have been in a relief role, but we saw Martinez throw 53 pitches across four innings just last week. All we need is five quality innings from Martinez to be an immense value below $7,000. That seems very possible against such a putrid offense.
Top Targets
Bobby Witt, KC (vs. James Paxton) $6,500
This might be a controversial opinion, but Witt is the best all-around player in baseball right now. This stud shortstop is up to 20 homers and 25 steals, thanks to his absurd .345 batting average (AVG). That pales in comparison when evaluating his recent form, registering a .455 AVG, .786 slugging rate (SLG) and 1.270 OPS since June 30. That's a month of pristine play and we love that he has the platoon advantage against Paxton. The Red Sox southpaw has a 5.28 xFIP and a 1.46 WHIP in what's developing into an ugly season. Not to mention, Witt has a .458 OBP, .716 SLG and 1.174 OPS at home this year. Salvador Perez ($5,100) and Vinnie Pasquantino ($5,000) are great pairings with Witt if you want to stack the Royals.
Heliot Ramos, SF (vs. Patrick Corbin) $4,700
Anyone who's played fantasy baseball over the last five years knows just how pitiful Corbin has been, but we'll dive into that later. This is about Ramos, who's developed into the Giants' best bat this season. He's been hitting second or third every day for San Fran, sporting a .285 AVG, .347 OBP, .493 SLG and .835 OPS. The best part about this is that he gets to face a lefty, providing a .506 OBP, .845 SLG and 1.351 OPS in nearly 100 at-bats against southpaws this season.
Bargain Bats
Jose Miranda, MIN (vs. Kyle Hendricks) $4,200
Miranda is far from an exciting bat, but he has quietly been one of Minnesota's best hitters since the break. The corner infielder is hitting .319 this year while posting a .869 OPS. Most of that damage has happened since the break, generating a .407 AVG, .455 OBP, .611 SLG and 1.066 OPS over his last 32 games. He's also one of the few guys who has opposite splits, totaling a .360 AVG, .582 SLG and .988 OPS against right-handers this year. That won't bode well for a gas can like Hendricks, who we'll talk about in the stacks section.
Michael Busch, CHC (vs. David Festa) $3,900
The Cubs have been collapsing over the last two months, but it's not Busch's fault. He's been crushing it recently, compiling a .265 AVG, .504 SLG and .835 OPS over his last 30 games. That has Busch hitting second for the Cubs every day. We also certainly don't mind that he has a .349 OBP, .459 SLG and .808 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. It's not like Festa is a fearful matchup, amassing a 6.98 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. If you want to stack against Festa, we'd use Cody Bellinger ($5,700), Isaac Paredes ($4,700) or Ian Happ ($4,500) to pair with Busch.
Stacks to Consider
San Francisco Giants at Nationals (Patrick Corbin): Heliot Ramos ($4,700), Matt Chapman ($4,600), Tyler Fitzgerald ($4,500)
It feels unfair to stack against Corbin at this point, but it's hard to understand why Washington keeps sending him out there. The veteran is always a safe bet for 150-200 innings, but he's truly an innings eater at this point. The lefty has not finished below a 4.66 ERA or 1.47 WHIP in five straight seasons, generating a 5.67 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in that span. That's nearly 700 innings of putrid pitching. It looks even worse since he allowed 11 runs in his most recent outing.
San Fran isn't the easiest team to stack, but this is always an underrated offense. They rank 14th in xwOBA this season and seem to perform better against left-handers. Ramos has been a huge part of that, but Chapman also crushes when he faces lefties. The third baseman has a .386 OBP and .904 OPS against them since the start of last season. Fitzgerald also has the platoon advantage against the lefty and is on one of the biggest heaters of the season. He has 10 homers over his last 16 games, posting a .418 OBP, .933 SLG and 1.351 OPS in that span.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks): Royce Lewis ($5,300), Jose Miranda ($4,200), Matt Wallner ($3,700)
It's sad to use stacks against these aging veterans, but that's the brutality of baseball. Much like Corbin, Hendricks simply doesn't have it anymore. The softball pitcher cannot crack 90 miles per hour (MPH) on the gun, accruing a 6.86 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in what's developed into a nightmarish season. He's also allowed 12 runs across his last three starts and will struggle to get through this top-10 Twins offense.
Lewis has trouble staying on the field, but he's one of the best players in DFS when he's out there. The slugger has 12 homers through 32 games, providing a .363 OBP, .585 SLG and .948 OPS throughout his career. We already talked about how hot Miranda has been, but Wallner is the sneaky option against righties. The outfielder typically bats cleanup against right-handers, totaling a .500 OBP, .920 SLG and 1.420 OPS across his last nine outings. In addition, he has a .405 OBP, .567 SLG and .972 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor over the last three years.
