This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
I'm filling in today, and I can't wait to dive into this full Saturday slate. I usually cover Thursdays and Mondays, but those tend to be travel days for most of the league. Saturdays are never like that with every team in action. That should leave us with a lot to discuss, so let's get started with my three favorite pitchers.
Pitching
Jared Jones, PIT vs. COL ($9,300)
We had Edward Cabrera in a home start against the Rockies earlier in the week, and we're going back to that Rockies well. Colorado has been 29th or 30th in runs scored and OPS in three straight years on the road and is only projected to score three times in this spot behind their 30th-ranked xwOBA. That's no surprise when evaluating Jones' remarkable season with a 3.18 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 rate. He's also posted at least 19 DraftKings points in all but one appearance, and we expect that to be his floor in a matchup as a -225 favorite.
Clarke Schmidt, NYY vs. DET ($8,400)
Schmidt has quietly been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball since the start of last season. He's allowed three runs or fewer in 28 of his last 32 starts while producing at least 17 DK points in four straight. The righty has also posted a 2.53 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 rate over that span, which should be easy to duplicate against Detroit's disastrous offense that ranks 20th in K rate, 24th in OBP and 23rd in wOBA.
Lance Lynn, STL vs. CWS ($8,400)
This is a risky option, though Lynn has looked much better since being traded to LA last season. He recorded a quality start in eight of his final 11 starts with the Dodgers and has recorded a 2.64 ERA through the opening month of 2024. The 1.40 WHIP is ugly, but Lynn averaged a 3.28 ERA and 1.09 WHIP between 2020-22. We expect him to return to that form against the White Sox as they sit last in runs scored, OBP and wOBA. The oddsmakers agree with our assessment, making Lynn a -190 favorite in this sensational spot.
Top Targets
Juan Soto, NYY (vs. Casey Mize) $6,400
Soto is the frontrunner for AL MVP, and it's easy to understand why. The perennial All-Star has accumulated eight homers and four steals en route to a .439 OBP and 1.014 OPS. That's amazingly not far off of his career numbers of a .422 and .948. He also enters Saturday on a 10-game hitting streak with at least 11 DraftKings points in seven. It's not like Mize is a menacing matchup as he maintains a 4.52 career xFIP. Not to mention, Soto sports a .430 OBP and .974 OPS against righties the last three years.
Corey Seager, TEX (vs. Michael Wacha) $5,400
Seager has struggled by his lofty standards, but he's inevitably going to be the best hitter in the AL for a month-long period. It could start in May as he faces some of the worst pitching staffs in baseball next week. We don't really care about that for this article, though we don't mind the matchup with Wacha here. The Royals righty has posted a 5.32 ERA and 1.73 WHIP across his last four starts. That's scary when evaluating Seager's sensational splits as he totaled a .408 OBP and 1.075 OPS against right-handers last season. He's also the BvP player of the day having provided a .539 OBP and 1.208 OPS in 13 at-bats against Wacha.
Bargain Bats
Esteury Ruiz, OAK (vs. Trevor Rogers) $4,300
Ruiz has been yanked around by the A's all season, but he's been Oakland's leadoff hitter nearly every time they face a lefty. It's easy to see why when looking at his splits as he's managed a .440 OBP and 1.117 OPS against southpaws. Ruiz listed similar numbers in his small stint at Triple-A, and we love that he faces Rogers as the Marlins' lefty has struggled to a 5.07 ERA and 1.47 WHIP the last three seasons. Don't forget about Tyler Nevin ($2,500) and his current 1.110 OPS against lefties while accumulating a 1.145 from his last nine outings.
Alex Kirilloff, MIN (vs. Boston Bullpen) $4,500
We like all of these Minnesota bats as they have a matchup against Boston's bullpen. We're going to recommend Kirilloff as the best value as he's collected a .285 AVG, .340 OBP and .803 OPS against righties since 2022. He's not the only one we like since Trevor Larnach ($4,200) and Max Kepler ($4,400) also carry superb splits and all three should be in the top half of the lineup.
Stacks to Consider
Pirates vs. (Austin Gomber): Bryan Reynolds ($4,700), Ke'Bryan Hayes ($4,600), Andrew McCutchen ($4,000)
Pittsburgh isn't typically a team we want to stack, but we love any offense against Colorado with the team sitting last in ERA and WHIP. Gomber has actually been one of their best pitchers, yet his 5.42 ERA and 1.42 WHIP the last three years tells you everything you need to know about this Rockies team.
Those nightmarish numbers make many of these righty bats look attractive, with Reynolds the prized choice. He's been the Pirates' best hitter for a few years now by posting a .368 AVG, .442 OBP and 1.073 OPS against left-handers this season. Hayes has offered some similar splits with a .444 OBP and .912 OPS while holding a platoon advantage. We can't forget about the veteran with Cutch compiling a .391 OBP and .917 OPS against southpaws across his career.
Dodgers vs. (Bryce Elder): Shohei Ohtani ($6,000), Freddie Freeman ($5,300), Max Muncy ($4,300)
This was a difficult slate to dissect with so many solid pitchers toeing the rubber, but this is a spot where regression could hurt Elder. The Braves righty made the All-Star team with an unbelievable first half last season, yet finished it with a lackluster 5.75 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in his final 14 starts. That earned him a Triple-A rotation spot to start 2024, and we're not going to get fooled by two quality starts against the Marlins and Guardians.
Those two offenses don't even compare to the Dodgers, with LA ranked first in OBP and runs scored. That's no surprise since they have three MVP candidates, with Freeman and Ohtani making the cut for this article. Freeman has posted a 1.058 OPS against righties this year while Ohtani is at 1.235. Muncy should bat right behind those two while flirting with a .400 OBP and .900 OPS against right-handers since joining LA. We didn't even mention Mookie Betts ($6,200), though he's currently the highest-scoring position player in DFS.
