This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Twelve games are included in Friday's main slate, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Boston and Pittsburgh are without listed pitchers, reducing our choices to 22 arms to consider. Just three of those options are priced in the five figures with five more in the $9,000 tier, so there aren't a lot of elite options. That's seemingly backed up by relatively high run totals. While no game has a double-digit total, four games sit at 9.0 runs or greater, led by Marlins-Reds at 9.5 expected runs. Twins-Giants and Pirates-White Sox are our low points at 7.5 runs.
Weather is going to play a factor Friday. Rain looks highly likely in Baltimore, so tread very, very carefully. It's also a concern in New York but to a lesser degree. Wind looks favorable for offenses in Boston, making it a game to invest in when other factors are equal.
Pitching
Joe Ryan, MIN at SF ($9,800): Sorting through the top, pay for Garrett Crochett if you can, I have no interest in Sonny Gray at this price and I love Cole Ragans as a GPP option against the Red Sox's left-handed heavy lineup. But the floor/ceiling discussion starts with Ryan and Freddy Peralta for me. While the Brewers are massive (-220) favorites, Peralta has been inconsistent and has just two quality starts in his last eight. Ryan has five in his last nine. None in his last three, but he's averaged 34.3 fantasy points over those games. This game has a slate-low run total. Ryan has allowed a .639 OPS to current Giants and is allowing just a .240 wOBA to lefties on the road. We expect the Giants' heavy platoon lineup to offer a plethora of opposite-handed bats, which would set Ryan up for success.
Sean Manaea, NYM vs. COL ($8,800): This feels like a hefty price for a mediocre talent, but Manaea is in solid form, allowing just one run in his last 18 innings and five across his last 20.2 frames. He's only worked six-plus innings in two of those, so we may not have quality start upside, but the matchup is amongst the most obvious to target on the slate. The Mets are massive (-240) favorites. Colorado brings a 25.1 percent strikeout rate off lefties into Friday, earning just a .311 wOBA and 86 wRC+, and they have an expected run total of just 2.9. Keep an eye on rain here, however. Bryan Woo is an acceptable pivot should the Mets get postponed, but pitch count/innings limitations may dampen that appeal in his return from the injured list (IL).
Yariel Rodriguez, TOR at ARI ($7,900): To be frank, I wrote this column in pieces and Rodriguez was the last name to find his way in. I'm not digging this slate overall, pitching or hitting, and feel we can find concerns for every positive angle. Rodriguez is in great form, allowing one run and three hits while striking out 12 in 12.2 innings since becoming a starter. Arizona is a top-half offense off righties with a .313 wOBA, 102 wRC+ and a mediocre 20.5 percent strikeout rate. They don't scare me enough to not consider Rodriguez, but the Jays pitcher likely isn't as good as he's shown and I don't trust him to eat innings safely. But I also can't confidently back anyone below him on this slate, so here we are.
Top Targets
Aaron Judge ($4,500) is in a great spot against a struggling rookie left-hander in Cade Povich. Judge has a .492 wOBA, 227 wRC+ and .394 ISO off southpaws. He could come with low roster percentages given the weather threat. That threat is very high, so be ready to pivot.
The Reds have the second-highest expected run total Friday and Marlins starter Yonny Chirinos is allowing a .487 wOBA and 1.143 OPS to lefties on the road (in limited exposure). Elly De La Cruz ($4,200) is far more feast or famine than I prefer for my pay-up options, but the matchup suggests he feasts here.
Christian Yelich ($3,900) appears a far safer pay-up. He brings a .406 wOBA, 166 wRC+ and .201 ISO off righties into a matchup with Jackson Rutledge, who had a 6.66 ERA and 4.97 xFIP at Triple-A.
Bargain Bats
Rain concerns prevent me from suggesting a stack, but it should be all systems go with the Mets' lineup Friday. They are surging and come with the slate's highest expected run total at 6.0. Brandon Nimmo ($3,400) has a six-game hitting streak that's seen him collect five extra-base hits, 10 RBI and five runs.
Repeat after me: I will not stack Blue Jays. I will not stack Blue Jays. I will not stack Blue Jays. I've done it too often in this column and it's always for not, as they've just been awful all year. But here we are again in a positive spot for their bats, with Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson owning a 6.69 home ERA (4.83 xFIP) and allowing righties to post a .417 wOBA and .975 OPS. Give me a surging Ernie Clement ($2,500), who's hit in four straight, including two homers and seven RBI, and move along. Position flexibility is a plus, too.
Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is allowing a .431 wOBA and 1.019 to lefties on the road. The Cardinals have a plethora of options to choose from while coming with a team total of 5.3 expected runs. Lars Nootbaar ($3,000), Brendan Donovan ($3,000), Nolan Gorman ($2,800) and Alec Burleson ($2,800) can all be considered to round out your build.
Stacks to Consider
Twins vs. Kyle Harrison (Giants): Carlos Correa ($3,500), Byron Buxton ($3,500), Willi Castro ($3,000)
Harrison has been decent and carries a 4.10 home ERA (3.76 xFIP) into Friday, where he's allowing righties to post just a .311 wOBA and .709 OPS, so it's not a clear smash spot. But the Twins hit lefties well throughout their lineup, so we'll back their season-long body of work over Harrison. Correa leads the way with a .406 wOBA, 167 wRC+ and .292 ISO. Buxton sits at .401/164/.254 and is riding a seven-game hitting streak. Castro slashes .414/173/.220 and offers eligibility at four different positions, giving you plenty of flexibility. He'd be my one-off to round out a lineup if you're not feeling this stack. We'll also need to consider lineup positions once available, as this doesn't immediately set up to be a traditional batting order stack.
Braves vs. Randy Vasquez (Padres): Marcell Ozuna ($4,100), Matt Olson ($3,400), Eddie Rosario ($2,500)
Atlanta's lineup pounded 10 hits out against Vasquez in an earlier meeting. Across 30 plate appearances overall, they own a .370 average with a 1.100 OPS against the Padres' starter. Vasquez has been shelled all year by lefties, allowing a .491 wOBA and 1.144 OPS, so we can get a little creative in this build. Jarred Kelenic ($3,100) and Ozzie Albies ($3,700), paired with Olson, make the most sense from a top-of-the-order perspective, but I can't justify that price on Albies.
Additionally, squeezing in Ozuna makes all the sense in the world as the team's top run producer who's also 3-for-4 with two doubles and a homer off Vasquez. Rosario is our wild card. He's homered in his only at-bat against Vasquez. If I'm filling out the lineup card, he's hitting sixth behind Ozuna (although I'd also move Ozuna up). Regardless, he gives us a very cheap option to target Vasquez's vulnerability to left-handed bats that will hit around these other two.
