This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
These Thursday slates have been frustrating from a scheduling standpoint, and we have another tricky one here. While we have 10 games in total, only five make up the main slate starting at 6:40 p.m. EDT. That doesn't leave us with too many options to discuss, but we still have one of the best pitchers in baseball toeing the rubber. With that in mind, let's start there!
Pitching
Dylan Cease, SD vs. NYM ($10,100)
If it weren't for Blake Snell's ridiculous run, we'd call Cease the hottest pitcher in baseball. The righty has only allowed six runs across his last seven starts, posting a 1.37 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 rate in that span. A stretch like that is hard to fathom, but it looks even better since Cease has a 2.23 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 12.9 K/9 over his last six home starts. New York is no easy matchup, but the Mets are only projected to score three runs, posting a 5-7 record across their last 12 games.
Nick Lodolo, CIN at PIT ($8,800)
It's difficult to get excited about Lodolo when looking at his recent form, but this guy was a stud before that. Lodolo has allowed eight runs in two of his last four starts but never allowed more than four runs in any of his first 16 starts. He also had a 3.45 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 9.3 K/9 rate in that span, and we believe he can return to that form in a road matchup with Pittsburgh. Not only is PNC a pitcher's park, but the Pirates rank 23rd in runs scored, 26th in K rate, 27th in OPS and 28th in wOBA. In his three matchups with the Pirates, Lodolo has scored at least 42 FanDuel points in all of those!
Top Targets
Vladimir Guerrero, TOR (vs. Griffin Canning) $3,900
I had Vlad in my article Monday, and he rewarded us with another dinger. That's been typical for the hottest hitter in baseball, as he's provided a .424 AVG, .493 OBP, .890 SLG and 1.382 OPS across his last 31 games. That's one of the best stretches you'll see from any player all season, and it looks even better since he has a .417 OBP and .985 OPS at home this season. The matchup with Canning is far from concerning, and we'll discuss it in the stacks section.
Marcell Ozuna, ATL (vs. Cristopher Sanchez) $3,800
Atlanta has been mauled by injuries, losing Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley. The good news is that Ozuna has kept the team treading water, collecting 37 homers and 94 RBI en route to a .381 OBP and .975 OPS. That's amazing since he has the platoon advantage against a struggling Sanchez, sporting a .379 OBP and .971 OPS against southpaws since the start of last season. In addition, Sanchez has a 5.55 ERA and 1.38 WHIP across his last eight starts.
Bargain Bats
Jackson Merrill, SD (vs. Luis Severino) $3,300
Merrill is one of the frontrunners for NL Rookie of the Year, and it's no surprise that he's flirting with a 20-20 season. He's also played elite defense, but we care about his recent form when discussing DFS. Merrill has a .340 AVG, .670 SLG and 1.035 OPS across his last 26 outings. He also bats sixth every time they face a righty, registering a .317 AVG, .529 SLG and .878 OPS against them this year. That's the perfect recipe against an overperforming pitcher like Severino, posting a 9.68 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in his three previous starts before a matchup with the Marlins. Manny Machado ($3,200) would be a great pairing with Merrill if you want to stack San Diego.
Colton Cowser, BAL (vs. Spencer Arrighetti) $3,000
Cowser has skyrocketed up the AL Rookie of the Year rankings and is now the favorite to land that award with a monster second half. The outfielder has a .365 OBP, .516 SLG and .881 OPS across his last 31 outings. He's also been dominant with the platoon advantage in his favor, amassing a .332 OBP, .464 SLG and .796 OPS against righties this year. That looks even better since Arrighetti has some of the worst averages on this slate, and we'll talk about that next.
Stacks to Consider
Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros (Arrighetti): Gunnar Henderson ($4,200), Anthony Santander ($3,600), Ryan O'Hearn ($2,900) and Cowser ($3,000)
Arrighetti looked awesome when he picked up 25 strikeouts in a two-start stretch earlier this month, but that's an outlier. The righty followed that up by allowing four runs to the White Sox in his last start, who historically have one of the worst offenses ever. That's what we've become accustomed to when discussing Arrighetti, accruing a 5.62 ERA and 1.55 WHIP if you remove those two outliers. That's terrifying against a bludgeoning team like Baltimore, ranked first in home runs and second in runs scored!
The O's have been one of the best stacks all season, and Henderson is the key cog. He's up to 33 homers, posting a .372 OBP, .582 SLG and .954 OPS against righties this year. Santander has been the best power hitter in the second half, connecting on 28 dingers since June 1! O'Hearn always bats in the heart of their lineup against right-handers, accumulating a .357 OBP and .815 OPS against them this year.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels (Canning): Guerrero ($3,900), George Springer ($3,000), Spencer Horwitz ($2,800)
Canning isn't necessarily a bad pitcher, but he has never pitched up to expectations. The Angels righty has a 5.41 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in another disappointing season, allowing at least six runs in three of his last six starts. That equates to a 7.34 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in that span, which looks even worse since he has a 5.77 ERA on the road this season.
Toronto is far from a terrifying lineup, but they've been much better since Vlad has been going ballistic. The resurgence of George Springer is a major reason why, and he's generated a .273 AVG, .528 SLG, and .865 OPS across his last 46 games. He's projected to bat leadoff and could record a 20-20 season if he has a hot finish. Horwitz has been batting behind Guerrero, totaling a .350 OBP and .760 OPS in an impressive rookie season. He also had a .412 OBP and .882 OPS in the minors and has the platoon advantage against Canning.
