This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Most Thursday cards are tiny, but that's not the case here. We have 12 games in total, with MLB trying to squeeze in as many games as possible before next week's All-Star break. With that said, five of them will be played during the day, while seven take place at night. There should be plenty of options between all of those, so let's get into it!
Pitching
Tanner Houck, BOS vs. OAK ($10,200)
Houck is having a breakout season in Boston, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He's also allowed three runs or fewer in 16 of his 18 starts, scoring at least 26 FanDuel points in 15 of those! That should bode well in a matchup against the A's, with Oakland ranked 28th in runs scored, 29th in K rate, 25th in wOBA and 26th in OBP. That was on full display when Houck threw six scoreless innings in their one matchup, striking out 10 batters en route to 58 FanDuel points! That's why he's a -230 favorite!
Luis Castillo, SEA at LAA ($9,300)
Castillo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since joining Seattle, sporting a 3.32 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over the last three years. That's who we've seen since getting off to a slow start, generating a 3.20 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 8.7 K/9 rate since the opening two weeks. The best part about this is the matchup against LA, facing an Angels team missing Mike Trout and Luis Rengifo. That has the Angels ranked 23rd in OBP, 24th in runs scored and 22nd in wOBA. Not to mention, Castillo has at least 41 FanDuel points in five of his last six matchups with LA, throwing seven scoreless innings against them earlier in the year!
Aaron Civale, MIL vs. PIT ($7,500)
Civale was a surprising sell by Tampa because he was starting to pitch much better recently. The righty has allowed four runs or fewer in 11 straight starts, providing a 3.89 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 rate in seven starts before the trade. That's still nothing special, but it's a step in the right direction since this guy has a 4.12 career ERA and 1.20 WHIP. We believe Milwaukee will help him get back to those career averages and a home matchup with Pittsburgh is a great way to start that positive regression. The Pirates rank 22nd in runs scored, 26th in K rate, 25th in OBP and 27th in wOBA. He allowed just four baserunners and one run in their matchup earlier in the year!
Top Targets
Julio Rodriguez, SEA (vs. Tyler Anderson) $3,000
J-Rod has been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy this season, but this superstar is slowly turning things around. Rodriguez is amid a three-game hitting streak, collecting two doubles, two homers, six runs and three RBI in that span. This guy was a top three player in fantasy in the second half of last season, and this spurt could be the start of a massive run. We also love that he's got the platoon advantage against Anderson, who's 5.03 xFIP indicates that some negative regression is right around the corner since his ERA is below 3.00. Stacking Seattle could be profitable with Anderson's regression creeping, with Ty France ($2,600) and Mitch Garver ($2,800) being decent values with the platoon advantage in their favor.
Lane Thomas, WAS (vs. David Peterson) $3,400
Thomas has quietly been a fantasy beast atop this Washington lineup since the start of last season, tallying 36 homers and 41 steals in that span. Only a handful of players have done that, and he's been even more dominant against lefties. In fact, Thomas has totaled a .379 OBP and .950 OPS against southpaws in that two-year span. It's not like Peterson is a scary southpaw, accruing a 4.42 career ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Stacking the Nats can be tough, but we'd use CJ Abrams ($3,700), James Wood ($3,000) and Juan Yepez ($2,500) if that's the route you want to take against Peterson.
Bargain Bats
Colt Keith, DET (vs. Spencer Howard) $3,000
Once I heard that Howard was pitching, we had to get at least one Detroit bat in here. He's been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over recent years, providing a 6.93 ERA and 1.70 WHIP throughout his career. That's nearly 150 innings of putrid pitching, and a hot hitter like Keith could add to those atrocious averages. Keith enters this magical matchup amid an eight-game hitting streak, collecting 10 runs scored, two triples, four homers and eight RBI while falling just shy of a 1.500 OPS. The Motor City Kitties are a sneaky stack against Howard, with Riley Greene ($3,500) and Matt Vierling ($2,800) being the best options.
Austin Slater, CIN (vs. Austin Gomber) $2,300
Cincy made a furtive move when they acquired Slater earlier in the week because this guy has slaughtered southpaws throughout his career. The outfielder had a .374 OBP and .817 OPS against left-handers between 2022 and 2023, despite some terrible numbers against them this year. That's scary for Gomber in a hitter's haven like Great American Ballpark, with Gomber generating a 7.25 ERA and 1.58 WHIP across his last seven starts. The BvP numbers for Slater are stupendous, sporting a .579 OBP, .941 SLG and 1.520 OPS in 19 at-bats against the lefty! We also love a full Cincy stack, with Elly De La Cruz ($4,400), Spencer Steer ($3,700), Jeimer Candelario ($3,100) and Noelvi Marte ($2,600) all in play.
Stacks to Consider
Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins (Roddery Munoz): Yordan Alvarez ($4,200), Alex Bregman ($3,300), Yainer Diaz ($3,000)
Don't look now, but Houston is starting to get going. That's scary because Kyle Tucker's return is right around the corner, but these All-Stars are still taking care of business without him. The Stros are the fourth-highest scoring team over the last month, averaging 5.5 runs per game. That should bode well against one of the worst pitchers on this slate, with Munoz maintaining a 5.48 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.
If we want to stack against Munoz, Alvarez needs to be the first player in our lineup. This superstar got off to a slow start, but he has a .418 OBP, .623 SLG and 1.041 OPS across his last 51 games. He's also flirting with a 1.000 OPS against righties throughout his career, posting a 1.246 OPS over his last 10 outings. Bregman has been almost as hot, accumulating a .373 OBP, .541 SLG and .913 OPS over his last 37 fixtures. Diaz is a sneaky value as a catcher, compiling a .333 AVG and .855 OPS over his last 28 games.
Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics (Luis Medina): Rafael Devers ($4,300), Tyler O'Neill ($3,800), Jarren Duran ($3,800) and Masataka Yoshida ($2,800)
This was supposed to be Hogan Harris' turn in the rotation but Medina will take the mound since Hogan is having a kid. We'd use the Bosox against either, with Medina amassing a 5.47 xFIP and 1.54 WHIP. That's scary since Boston ranks seventh in runs scored over the last 30 days!
Devers has a .491 OBP, .957 SLG and 1.447 OPS across his last 12 outings while posting an OPS above 1.000 against righties. O'Neill has been getting hot recently, registering a .360 OBP and .913 OPS over his last 19 outings. Duran is the leadoff hitter for the Sox, averaging 12.2 FD points per game. Yoshida is the cheap option of the bunch, collecting a .400 OBP and .869 OPS across his last eight games while having the platoon advantage against Medina.
