This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Thursday slates always tend to be light, and that's what we have here. There are only eight games in total, with six of them happening during the day. We're going to zone in on those because that's where all the big prize pools will be. With that in mind, let's dive into the pitchers for this Thursday card!
Pitching
Dylan Cease, SD at WAS ($10,900)
Cease is one of the most inconsistent arms in baseball, but he's slicing through lineups right now. The righty has allowed just two hits across 14 scoreless innings in his last two starts, striking out 21 batters in those gems. That's an absurd stretch, but it's less surprising since Cease has an 11.7 K/9 rate for the year. That's what we're looking for in DFS, and we love that Washington ranks 20th in runs scored, 24th in xwOBA and 26th in wOBA. When Cease faced them last month, he threw seven one-hit innings en route to 58 FD points, entering this matchup as a -180 favorite!
Corbin Burnes, BAL at MIA ($10,700)
Burnes hasn't been as dominant as he was in his Cy Young campaign, but he is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. The O's ace has a 10-4 record, thanks to his 2.38 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He's also scored at least 20 FanDuel points in all 20 starts, scoring at least 43 FD points in six of his last nine starts. That should be his floor against Miami, with the Marlins ranked 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. We didn't even mention that Burnes has only allowed one run across 21 innings in his last three starts against Miami, entering this game as a -250 favorite.
Gavin Williams, CLE vs. DET ($7,500)
Williams was far from impressive in his most recent outing, but rough starts are inevitable after such a lengthy absence. The righty allowed just one run across 10.1 innings in his two previous starts and had a 3.29 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in a breakout 2023 season. He also had 20 Ks across 12 innings in his rehab assignment at Triple-A, and we're encouraged by that since Detroit's offense looks like a Triple-A lineup. The Motor City Kitties rank 20th in K rate, 24th in wOBA and 27th in OBP, with Williams throwing 5.1 scoreless innings against them just a few weeks ago. That's why he enters this matchup as a -180 favorite!
Top Targets
Corey Seager, TEX (vs. Jonathan Cannon) $3,600
It's hard to understand why Seager isn't at least $4,000. He's been playing at that level since the start of last season, tallying a .375 OBP and .932 OPS since then. He's also got a .402 OBP and 1.013 OPS against righties in that same span and comes into this matchup scorching. Seager has a .387 OBP and .996 OPS across his last 47 outings! The Rangers have one of the best lineups in baseball, and Cannon should get clobbered against them. The rookie has a 6.20 ERA and 1.42 WHIP across his last six starts. If you want to stack Texas, we'd pair Seager with Marcus Semien ($3,400), Adolis Garcia ($3,200) and Wyatt Langford ($3,000).
Manny Machado, SD (vs. Patrick Corbin) $3,300
Corbin is the worst pitcher on this slate but we'll dive into his numbers later on. That should allow Manny to go off in the heart of San Diego's lineup, sporting a .359 OBP and .910 OPS across his last 27 fixtures. He's also slaughtered southpaws throughout his career, collecting a .353 OBP and .846 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. We also love Manny's BvP numbers, maintaining a .346 OBP and .846 OPS in nearly 30 at-bats against Corbin.
Bargain Bats
David Fry, CLE (vs. Kenta Maeda) $3,100
Fry has been struggling a bit since an unbelievable run last month, but his season-long numbers don't match this dirt-cheap price tag. This guy has regularly been batting fourth or fifth for this clobbering Cleveland lineup, compiling a .288 AVG, .393 OBP and .854 OPS. That's the production you usually see from a $4K player, and it looks even better since he has a .471 OBP and .871 OPS in five games since the break. Detroit hasn't announced a starter yet but the speculation is that it will be Maeda. That's terrifying for the Tigers because he has a 7.07 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, surrendering 13 runs across 4.2 innings in two starts against Cleveland this year. A Guardians stack might be expensive, but Jose Ramirez ($4,300), Josh Naylor ($3,500) and Steven Kwan ($3,600) are great pairings with Fry.
Ryan O'Hearn, BAL (vs. Roddery Munoz) $3,000
O'Hearn is a platoon player, but he's one of the best options in DFS whenever the O's face a righty. That's what they have here, facing one of the worst pitchers on this slate. We'll dive into that later on, but let's look at O'Hearn's splits. The outfielder has a .352 OBP, .484 SLG and .836 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That's why he always bats cleanup against right-handers and that's the ideal spot in one of the best lineups in the sport.
Stacks to Consider
San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals (Corbin): Machado, Jurickson Profar ($3,400), Xander Bogaerts ($2,800)
It's hard to understand how Corbin still has a job, until you look at his contract. This lefty hasn't finished below a 5.20 ERA or 1.47 WHIP in four straight seasons, posting a 5.67 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in that span. That's why we've been stacking against him all season. San Diego should slice their way in this matchup after scoring 25 runs in their four-game winning streak. In addition, Corbin has surrendered 18 runs across 22.2 innings in his last four starts against the Padres.
We already talked about how Manny is one of the best options on this slate but we love pairing him with Profar. The former top prospect is amid a breakout season, accruing a .388 OBP and .866 OPS as the everyday two-hole hitter. In addition, Profar has provided a .427 OBP and 1.001 OPS against left-handers! Bogaerts has been hampered by an injury for most of the year but he has a .384 OBP and .866 OPS against lefties over the last three years. X also has a multi-hit game in six of seven outings since being activated, generating a .483 AVG and .983 OPS in that span!
Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins (Munoz): Gunnar Henderson ($4,500), Anthony Santander ($3,700), O'Hearn
The Orioles have been one of the best offenses in baseball, and they should maul Munoz here. The Marlins righty hasn't recorded a quality start in over a month, maintaining a 5.14 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He's also got a 5.48 ERA and 1.65 WHIP at home, which is scary since Baltimore ranks first in homers and fourth in runs scored.
Now that we got that out of the way, let's dive into this Baltimore stack. Henderson has been one of the best players in baseball, posting a .371 OBP and .940 OPS. He's also rocked righties, registering a .977 OPS against them. That's a wonderful start to the stack with O'Hearn because Santander has been scorching as well. The outfielder has a .604 SLG and .930 OPS across his last 52 games while amassing a 1.327 OPS over his last six outings!
