This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
This might be the only Thursday all season when all 30 teams are in action. There's an obvious reason for the bloated schedule: It's July 4! This is a great day to sit back and watch some baseball with friends and family because we have games spread all throughout the day. With that in mind, let's dive into this full Thursday card!
Pitching
Bailey Ober, MIN vs. DET ($9,900)
Ober got off to an awful start when he allowed eight runs in the opener, but he's been outstanding since then. The right-hander had made 15 starts since that stinker, sporting a 3.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 9.4 K/9 rate. That's on par with what we've seen over recent years, registering a 3.37 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in the two years prior. He should be able to keep this hot stretch going against Detroit's disastrous offense, ranked 20th in K rate, 22nd in runs scored and 27th in wOBA. In their two matchups this season, Ober has allowed just one run across 12 sparkling innings. All of that has Ober entering this matchup as a -200 favorite.
Ben Lively, CLE vs. CWS ($9,100)
Lively has quietly had an incredible season in Cleveland, compiling a 3.03 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He's also allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of his 13 starts, surrendering just two runs or fewer in 10 of those! We don't see All-Stars with that type of consistency, and he couldn't have a better matchup. Not only is Lively at home, but the White Sox rank last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. That's why he enters this matchup as a -250 favorite!
Nick Pivetta, BOS at MIA ($8,700)
Pivetta has been pitiful across his last four starts, but those were some of the best offenses in baseball. Miami is nowhere near that, ranked 29th in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA. Their spacious ballpark plays a major factor in that, and we expect Pivetta to recapture his early-season form against such poor competition. Pivetta had a 3.40 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 rate before this subpar four-start stretch and still has a 3.46 SIERA and 3.68 xFIP for the year.
Top Targets
Aaron Judge, NYY (vs. Frankie Montas) $5,000
Judge is the most dangerous hitter in the league right now. After getting off to a "slow" start, he has 29 homers over his last 61 games, providing a .491 OBP, .870 SLG and 1.361 OPS in that span. Those are laughable averages, especially since his OPS is above 1.500 at home in that same stretch! That's rough for a struggling Frankie Montas, posting a 4.90 ERA and 1.37 WHIP since the opening week of the year! If you want to stack NY, Juan Soto ($4,400), Anthony Volpe ($2,900) and Gleyber Torres ($2,700) are the obvious plays.
Rafael Devers, BOS (vs. Kyle Tyler) $3,900
Devers has been destroying the baseball recently, homering in four of his last six outings. This run has gone on much longer than that, though, tallying a .997 OPS across his last 41 games in total. Most of that damage has come with the platoon advantage in his favor, producing a .389 OBP and 1.024 OPS against righties this year. That's rough for a rookie with two first names because Tyler has only made two starts at this level after putting up a 4.60 ERA and 1.43 WHIP between Double-A and Triple-A. Stacking the Sox should be easy, with Jarren Duran ($3,900), Tyler O'Neill ($3,400) and Wilyer Abreu ($3,000) being the best bets.
Bargain Bats
Paul Goldschmidt, STL (vs. Martin Perez) $2,700
Goldy is having a rough season, but the All-Star is slowly turning things around. The first baseman has a .769 OPS across his last 44 games. Slowly creeping back to the norm is what we really care about because Goldy has been a .375 OBP and .900 OPS player throughout his career. His splits are even more impressive, sporting a .425 OBP and 1.009 OPS against southpaws throughout his career. We also like Nolan Arenado ($2,700), Willson Contreras ($3,100) and Masyn Winn ($2,600) with the platoon advantage against Perez, with the lefty posting a 5.28 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.
Taylor Ward, LAA (vs. JP Sears) $3,300
Ward has quietly had an amazing season for the Angels. The outfielder has been doing that for a few years now, though, providing a .343 OBP and .790 OPS since 2021. He also comes into this matchup with a .395 OBP and .963 OPS across his last 10 outings. The most impactful variable when examining Ward is his wonderful splits, accumulating a .422 OBP and 1.018 OPS against lefties this year. Sears is far from a scary southpaw, surrendering a 7.28 ERA and 1.72 WHIP across his last six starts. LA can be a challenging team to stack but Logan O'Hoppe ($3,100) and Luis Rengifo ($3,300) are the best pairings with Ward.
Stacks to Consider
Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies (Cal Quantrill): Christian Yelich ($4,500), Brice Turang ($3,800), Garrett Mitchell ($3,000)
We had the Brewers in here against the Rockies earlier in the week, and it's easy to understand why. They've been the highest-projected offense on every slate, facing the worst pitching staff in the most hitter-friendly park in the sport. That's a recipe for success, especially since Milwaukee ranks third in OBP and fifth in runs scored. Quantrill has been one of the best Rockies this season, but his 4.82 ERA and 1.49 WHIP at home since the start of last year is concerning against a team like this. All of that has the Brewers projected to score over six runs, the highest total on this slate!
If we're going to stack Milwaukee, we have to include Yelich. The former MVP is one of the top-scoring players in fantasy, collecting eight homers and 19 steals behind his .403 OBP. He's also got a .411 OBP and .924 OPS against righties this year! Turang has quietly been one of the best options in fantasy, averaging nearly 11 FanDuel points per game, thanks to his elite speed. Mitchell is the dark horse pick of the bunch, making his season debut earlier in the week. He had a .392 OBP and .854 OPS in the minors and gets the platoon advantage against Quantrill.
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers (Kenta Maeda): Carlos Correa ($3,500), Byron Buxton ($3,200), Willi Castro ($3,000)
The Twins are a tricky team, but we want to use anyone against Maeda right now. The 36-year-old appears to be hitting a wall, tallying a 5.76 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season. His road numbers are even more horrifying, totaling an 8.53 ERA and 1.70 WHIP outside of Detroit. That's scary against one of the hottest teams, with the Twinkies ranked third in runs scored over the last month.
Royce Lewis is Minnesota's best hitter, but Correa has been carrying them this month. The shortstop has a .476 OBP, .659 SLG and 1.135 OPS across his last 23 games. He's actually scored at least 19 FanDuel points in 11 of those and is one of the safest bets out there right now. Buxton has been bludgeoning the ball this month, too, maintaining a .418 OBP, .750 SLG and 1.168 OPS across his last 17 games. Castro has been hitting leadoff recently, registering a .393 OBP and .974 OPS over his last 20 outings. No wonder these guys are third in runs scored!
