This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
National League Divisional Series Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
A Pair of NL East Divisional rivals square off to play a best-of-five series to determine who will advance to the NLCS starting Saturday at 6:00 PM ET at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. The weather at game time is expected to be 63 degrees with wind gusts up to 20 MPH out of the northwest throughout the game. The relative humidity will be extremely low at 25 percent, so overall great weather for a baseball game.
This season, the NL East division was dominated once again by the Braves, who went 104-58, averaging a -165 wager but earning only a 1.5 percent ROI. The Phillies earned the top wild-card berth by way of a 90-72 record, averaging a -121 wager but producing a -1.7 percent ROI. The scant ROI's for both teams is a reflection of how well the market priced these teams over a 162-game season. The Braves played exceptional ball at Truist Park, sporting a 52-29 record and averaging a -184 bet, but a money-losing -1.5 percent ROI. The Phillies played consistent baseball on the road going 41-40, averaging a -105 wager with a money-losing 5.0 percent ROI.
The Weather Forecast for Game 1
The wind will be blowing out to left field and may be a factor for balls hit very high. The stadium is quite high behind home plate and extends down both the first and third base sides and shields the wind from the playing surface. So, the wind may not be a huge factor contributing to home runs being hit tonight. The setting sun will only be a problem for fans sitting on the third base side for about the first 45 minutes of the game.
The Phillies Are the Team No Franchise Wants to Face
The Phillies have a tremendous team chemistry that has shown all season, with every player celebrating any other's great play on the field. There are no egos on this team, which is a tribute to skipper Rob Thomson and the leadership on and off the field by veterans Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nol, and others. They have no fear whatsoever playing on the road against the Braves, who will have to be at their best if they want to hold home field and advance to the NLCS.
The Phillies ace, Zack Wheeler, was dominant in Game 1 of their wild-card sweep over the Miami Marlins. Then in Game 2, Aaron Nola was equally as dominating, but it created somewhat of an issue for the brain trust to decide the pitching rotation for this series, knowing the Braves would have their best rotation in place starting with Spencer Strider.
I have bet Zack Wheeler at +9000 and Aaron Nola at +14000 to be the World Series MVP, which is a much better price than betting on the Phillies as a team to win the World Series.
So, it was not surprising to see the Phillies elect to start left-hander Ranger Suarez for Game 1, who went just 4-6 in 22 starts with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, including 119 strikeouts and 48 walks over 125 innings of work. He is a crafty left-handed pitcher with a wide array and variation of pitches he uses to keep batters guessing. He uses a heavy late-sinking fastball about 50 percent of the time, then mixes in a cutter (15 percent), change (18 percent) and curve (17 percent). His change is exceptional and is used mostly against right-handed batters, but he will use it occasionally against left-handed batters. His fastball will top out at 95 mph and average 93 mph. His curve will have big-time late-breaking movement attributed to a spin rate of around 2,100 RPM. All of his pitches average about 2,000 RPM, and that consistency makes it tough for batters to identify what pitch is coming their way.
Spencer Strider had a tremendous season, posting a 20-5 record in 32 starts including a league-high 281 strikeouts spanning 186.2 innings of work. He made 11 starts in which he struck out 10 or more batters, but the Phillies, as a team, are one of the most disciplined in MLB. Three of his five losses occurred at Truist Park, where he went 8-3 in 16 starts with a mediocre 4.35 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. striking out 153 batters over 93 innings of work. The biggest fact that the Phillies must overcome is that he went 11-0 in 12 starts against divisional foes with a 3.44 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 102 strikeouts over 73.1 innings of work.
The biggest advantage the Phillies have is their bullpen. The scheduling of this series, which includes three days off, allows for even greater rest and managerial options. Their bullpen is the best of the remaining teams in the playoffs and has posted a 1.33 ERA and a 0.852 WHIP including 36 strikeouts and just six walks over their last seven games, spanning 27 innings of work.
The Situational Betting Algorithm for Game 1
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 68-27 record for 72 percent winning bets, averaging a -108 wager and earning a 55 percent ROI in games played over the past 25 regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are to bet on road teams who are facing a NL foe that is starting a pitcher with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20, following a game in which their bullpen allowed five or more runs.
Now, the fact that the last game the Braves played was meaningless does diminish that parameter of the algorithm, so let's substitute another game parameter for it. In the playoffs, road dogs of +125 and higher who are facing a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 have gone a quite impressive 29-26 for a 53 percent win rate, and by averaging a +155 wager have earned a highly profitable 28 percent ROI.
Last, teams that won their previous game by five or more runs to close out a series are 8-7, averaging a +140 wager, a 29.5 percent ROI and a remarkable 11-3 on the +1.5-run line, earning a 35 percent ROI.
My best bet for Game 1 is on the Phillies, placing a 5-unit amount on the +1.5 run line (-120, DraftKings) and a 3-unit amount on the moneyline (+170, DraftKings).
