A couple weeks ago, I looked into when to give up on hitters who struggle to start the season. (i.e. two months). It's now time to find the time to ditch pitchers who are struggling early in the season. In the end, walk and home-run rates are all that's needed with just a month's sample.
In 2021 drafts, both Lucas Giolito and Luis Castillo were early-round draft picks who struggled out of the gate. In April, Giolito had a 5.68 ERA while Steamer projections placed him as a 4.00 ERA guy. As for Castillo, he had a 6.28 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with an ERA projected to be around 3.50. Both pulled it together with Castillo having a 3.90 ERA in the second half and Giolito a 3.50 ERA over the same time frame.
On the other hand, Kyle Hendricks and Sonny Gray never did rebound from their early struggles. My goal was to find any indicators that pointed to the pitchers who have lost some talent compared to those who may have been unlucky.
To start the analysis, I took all the pitchers since 2010 who had their ERA a full run (1.00) above their preseason Steamer projection. Then, I compared how these pitchers performed over the rest of the season, looking for any common traits for those who struggled and those who regressed back to their projection.
After cutting and dicing the data several ways, two common traits stood out: a jump in walk and home-run rates.
A couple weeks ago, I looked into when to give up on hitters who struggle to start the season. (i.e. two months). It's now time to find the time to ditch pitchers who are struggling early in the season. In the end, walk and home-run rates are all that's needed with just a month's sample.
In 2021 drafts, both Lucas Giolito and Luis Castillo were early-round draft picks who struggled out of the gate. In April, Giolito had a 5.68 ERA while Steamer projections placed him as a 4.00 ERA guy. As for Castillo, he had a 6.28 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with an ERA projected to be around 3.50. Both pulled it together with Castillo having a 3.90 ERA in the second half and Giolito a 3.50 ERA over the same time frame.
On the other hand, Kyle Hendricks and Sonny Gray never did rebound from their early struggles. My goal was to find any indicators that pointed to the pitchers who have lost some talent compared to those who may have been unlucky.
To start the analysis, I took all the pitchers since 2010 who had their ERA a full run (1.00) above their preseason Steamer projection. Then, I compared how these pitchers performed over the rest of the season, looking for any common traits for those who struggled and those who regressed back to their projection.
After cutting and dicing the data several ways, two common traits stood out: a jump in walk and home-run rates. Before it started, I figured BABIP would be the driver, but it was constant for those who continued to struggle and those who pulled it together.
For walks, a one-month jump of 1.0 BB/9 over their projection pointed to a pitcher who would continue to struggle. For home runs, it was a jump of 0.75 HR/9. When a pitcher pushed both over the line, they had little chance of rebounding.
The preceding benchmarks aren't the perfect calculated dividers, but they are easily remembered. I wish the home-run benchmark was 0.5 or 1.0, but both were too small or big. Also, if there is one of the pair to believe, it's the walks.
For example, here are the pitchers from 2021 who saw their March/April ERA jump by more than a run over their projection. I grouped them into four groups comparing their projections versus early performance.
Group
- BB/9 increased by >= 1.0 and HR/9 increased by >= 0.75
- Just BB/9 increased by >= 1
- Just HR/9 increased by >= 0.75
- Neither BB/9 increased by >= 1.0 and HR/9 increased by >= 0.75
| Steamer | March/April | Second Half | March-Steamer | Second Half - Steamer | |||||||||||
| Name | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 4.22 | 2 | 1.3 | 7.54 | 3.2 | 4 | 6.16 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 3.33 | 1.16 | 2.7 | 1.94 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Corbin | 4.01 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 10.47 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 6.32 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 6.46 | 2.57 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Tarik Skubal | 4.37 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 6.14 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 1.77 | 2.18 | 1.8 | -0.07 | -2.2 | 0.9 |
| Taylor Hearn | 4.29 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 6.94 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 2.65 | 2.69 | 1.6 | 0.21 | -1.5 | -0.3 |
| Matt Moore | 4.95 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 9.82 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 6.97 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 4.87 | 4.05 | 1.6 | 2.01 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Vince Velasquez | 4.26 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 6.57 | 8 | 2.9 | 9.41 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 5.14 | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Chad Kuhl | 4.84 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 6.32 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 4.97 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 1.48 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 0.12 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Max Fried | 3.81 | 3.3 | 1 | 11.45 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.74 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 7.65 | 0.78 | 1.5 | -2.07 | -1.8 | -0.4 |
| Sonny Gray | 3.99 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 5.93 | 5.3 | 2 | 5.03 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 1.94 | 1.59 | 0.8 | 1.04 | -0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average = | 3.6 | 2.78 | 1.6 | 1.18 | -0.3 | 0.4 | |||||||||
| Name | ERA | BB/9` | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 |
| Tyler Matzek | 3.49 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 4.91 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 1.78 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 1.41 | 2.67 | 0.6 | -1.71 | 0.3 | -0.8 |
| Mitch Keller | 4.45 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 3.75 | 2.36 | 0.2 | 0.95 | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| Zach Davies | 4.98 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 9.47 | 7.1 | 1.4 | 8.13 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 4.49 | 4.05 | 0 | 3.15 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Brad Keller | 4.74 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 9 | 5.5 | 1 | 3.96 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 4.26 | 1.87 | -0.1 | -0.78 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Jose Quintana | 4.44 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 10.13 | 8.8 | 1.4 | 4.94 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 5.69 | 5.89 | -0.2 | 0.51 | -0.2 | 0.4 |
| Austin Gomber | 5.32 | 4 | 1.5 | 6.65 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 6.32 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.33 | 3.4 | -0.8 | 1 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Average = | 3.49 | 3.37 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Name | ERA | BB/9` | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 |
| Drew Smyly | 4.16 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 8.05 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 4.47 | 2.4 | 2 | 3.9 | -0.18 | 2.9 | 0.31 | -1.1 | 0.6 |
| Logan Allen | 4.71 | 4 | 1.4 | 9.19 | 4 | 4 | 3.9 | 2 | 1 | 4.48 | 0.04 | 2.6 | -0.81 | -2 | -0.4 |
| Richard Bleier | 3.74 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 6.35 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.96 | 1.5 | 0 | 2.61 | -2.59 | 2.4 | -0.78 | -1.1 | -0.8 |
| Liam Hendriks | 3.29 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 4.35 | 0.9 | 3.5 | 2.27 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.07 | -1.78 | 2.3 | -1.01 | -1.8 | -0.1 |
| Trevor Stephan | 4.56 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 5.91 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 4.45 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.35 | 0.7 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Bryse Wilson | 4.39 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 6.75 | 3.8 | 3 | 5.36 | 3 | 1.6 | 2.36 | 0.57 | 1.7 | 0.97 | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| Anthony Bass | 3.88 | 3.4 | 1 | 6.97 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.77 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 3.08 | -0.82 | 1.6 | -1.12 | -0.7 | 0.4 |
| Kenta Maeda | 4.28 | 3 | 1.4 | 6.17 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 4.66 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.89 | -1.05 | 1.3 | 0.37 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| Jorge Lopez | 5.05 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 7.48 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 6.32 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 2.42 | 0.36 | 0.9 | 1.27 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Frankie Montas | 4.21 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.17 | 3 | 0.6 | 1.99 | -0.55 | 0.9 | -2.04 | -0.1 | -0.7 |
| Jordan Lyles | 5.47 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 6.75 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 5.49 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.28 | -1.21 | 0.9 | 0.01 | -0.7 | 0.5 |
| Luis Castillo | 3.56 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 6.29 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.18 | 3.2 | 1 | 2.73 | -0.64 | 0.8 | -0.38 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Chris Stratton | 4.18 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 6.08 | 1.4 | 2 | 4.68 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 1.89 | -2.03 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Average = | 2.39 | -0.7 | 1.6 | -0.22 | -0.5 | 0 | |||||||||
| Name | ERA | BB/9` | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | BB/9 | HR/9 |
| Ryan Tepera | 4.2 | 4 | 1.1 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.96 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.48 | 0.7 | -2.24 | -1.3 | -0.7 |
| Rich Hill | 4.51 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 7.25 | 2.8 | 2 | 4.01 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 2.74 | -0.83 | 0.6 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -0.5 |
| Jameson Taillon | 4.63 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 6.23 | 1 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | -1.59 | 0.6 | -1.13 | 0.3 | -0.4 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 3.85 | 3 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 6.44 | 5 | 1.4 | 1.55 | 0.56 | 0.5 | 2.58 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Lucas Giolito | 4.04 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 5.68 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2.65 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.65 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -1.39 | -1.1 | -0.3 |
| Connor Brogdon | 4.18 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2.31 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 2.12 | -0.1 | 0.4 | -1.87 | -1.4 | -0.7 |
| Merrill Kelly | 4.68 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 6.33 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 4.41 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 1.66 | -0.55 | -0.1 | -0.27 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Zach Plesac | 4.74 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 5.81 | 1 | 1.4 | 4.95 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.07 | -1.6 | -0.3 | 0.21 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| Chris Paddack | 3.86 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 4.31 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.54 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 0.44 | -1.2 | -0.4 |
| Alex Cobb | 4.66 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 7.16 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 2.63 | 4 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 0.13 | -0.9 | -2.03 | 1.3 | -0.8 |
| Average = | 1.76 | -0.29 | 0.1 | -0.62 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
From the group who had both their walk and home-run rate up, only two (Skubal and Kuhl) met their projections. Max Fried bucked the trend by performing great in the second half, but he needed an IL stint to get right. Even though they were highly regarded, Patrick Corbin, Kyle Hendricks and Sonny Gray continued to struggle.
As for Giolito and Castillo, Giolito was firmly in the safe group. As a group, they outperformed their projections. The only miss in the last group was Jesus Luzardo, who never did put it all together. As for Castillo, he just barely missed the last grouping with a 0.8 HR/9 jump.
It's just that simple and simple can be great at times. So when to consider dropping pitchers and hitters have been answered. Next on the offseason to-do list are examining relievers who transitioned to starter and the pitchers who returned from Tommy John surgery.
