This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
NLCS Best Bets, Picks & Previews
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Game 1
NLCS: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Few observers outside of the Diamondbacks fan base thought it was possible to reach the NLCS and defeat a divisional foe who ran away with the NL West Divisional crown by winning 100 games. Yet, the Dodgers lost in a shocking 3-0 sweep and the Diamondbacks are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2017. The reigning NL Champion Phillies were not a surprise to reach this point in the playoffs and defeated the NL East Division champion Atlanta Braves in four games.
The Diamondbacks were not a power-hitting team during the regular season, having hit 166 home runs ranking 26th in MLB, but they are tied for tops in the playoffs with 13 round-trippers. They have played one less game than the Philadelphia Phillies, who also have 13 home runs and hit 11 of them in their Divisional Win over the Atlanta Braves who set an MLB record with 307 home runs. The Top-3 home run-hitting teams (Dodgers, Braves, and Twins) were eliminated in the playoffs. The Texas Rangers, who hit 233 home runs and ranked 4th most in MLB, won Game 1 of their ALCS over the reigning World Champion Houston Astros.
The Importance of Home Runs in the Playoffs
Based on the analytics, on-base percentage supersedes home run hitting in the playoffs. Of course, there are the games like Game 4 of the NLCS where all the runs scored in the 3-1 Phillies win were solo home runs. However, the innings and at-bats before those home runs set the stage for the Phillies to hit six home runs in Game 3 and three in Game 4. In the playoffs, keeping a starting pitcher under duress with consistent base-running traffic will set the stage for the home run and ultimately the dominant factor in most playoff wins. The first-and-third situation is the most stressful for a starting pitcher and the Phillies have generated far more of those situations than any other team in the playoffs.
In the playoffs, the Diamondbacks have 44 hits, 21 walks and 19 extra-base hits. The Phillies have amassed 54 hits, 23 walks, and 26 extra-base hits. The Phillies have attained an outstanding 0.411 on-base percentage while the Diamondbacks are right on their heels posting a 0.393 OBP in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks rank tops in the playoffs having seen an average of 4.27 pitches per plate appearance and the Phillies rank 4th averaging 4.05 pitches seen per plate appearance.
The Phillies' left fielder Nick Castellanos became the first player in MLB postseason history to hit two or more home runs in consecutive games and ranks best with 23 total bases in the playoffs. He and teammate Trea Turner rank best with six extra-base hits. Turner ranks best with a remarkable 0.556 batting average on balls in play and seventh in Isolated Power. The depth of this lineup gives the Phillies a significant offensive advantage over the Diamondbacks.
The Phillies' rookie sensation and center fielder Johan Rojas is already one of the best in the game today and was credited with a potential series-saving catch in the gap in deep left-center fielder off the bat of Ronald Acuna. His defense far outweighs his struggles at the plate, and it is a bonus when he gets on base to turn the lineup over. J.T. Realmuto is the best catcher in the game bar none and overall the Phillies' defense is monumentally better and more consistent than the Diamondbacks.
The Phillies Are the Team No Franchise Wants to Face
The Phillies have a tremendous team chemistry that has shown all season with every player celebrating any other's great play on the field. There are no egos on this team and is a tribute to skipper Rob Thomson, who utilized 110 different starting lineups this season, and the leadership on and off the field by veterans in Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and others. They have no fear whatsoever playing on the road against any team and have by far the best home-field advantage and their incredibly supportive and passionate fan base. There are home-field advantages and then there is Philadelphia's Citizen's Bank Park.
As was the case in the two previous series, the biggest advantage the Phillies have is their bullpen, which was outstanding against the Braves. The unit is clearly an example of when you are called into the game just do your job. Thomson used the relievers in various roles in the regular and playoff seasons and even had Matt Strahm on the hill to close out the series against the Braves, which was just histhis third save of the season.
Situational Team and Player Trends and Angles for the NLCS
In the Phillies' 3-1 Game 4 win that clinched the Divisional Series over the Braves, both Bryson Stott and Kyle Schwarber failed to get a hit. In past games, the Phillies are 9-3 following a game in which Schwarber and Stott did not get a hit. Stott and Schwarber are on my radar for the DraftKings lineups for the first two games of this series. Supports Phillies in Game 1.
Phillies are 38-14 averaging a -165 wager and earning a 33% ROI in home games and taking on an NL foe that is batting 0.255 or lower in games played after the All-Star break and playoffs in the past two seasons.
Phillies are a perfect 6-0 in the first game of a playoff series spanning the last two seasons.
The Situational Betting Algorithm for Game 1
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 33-8 record for 80% winning bets in games played in October and November over the past five regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a foe that has achieved a 0.480 slugging percentage over their previous five games in the month of October.
My best bet for Game 1 is on the Phillies by placing a 6-unit amount on the money line and then look to add the remaining two units if the Diamondbacks score first or retake the lead during the first four innings of this game as offered at DraftKings.
If you like the Phillies to Win the World Series
I mentioned in previous articles and shows that my preferred way to bet the Phillies to win the World Series was to bet on Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola to be awarded the MVP. I got Wheeler at +9000 and Nola at +13500 six weeks ago. They are now priced at +3000 for Wheeler and +6000 and continue to represent great value and an excellent betting opportunity.
I also like the Phillies at +205 to win the World Series, but if they do, I think one of these two pitchers is going to also hoist the MVP hardware if they win.
