MLB: One Man's Trash... (Week 2)

During the season, I'm going to look at some of the players being dropped by fantasy managers to see if their decisions were a little brash. Especially this early in the season with player evaluations up in the air, some of the players dropped will provide fantasy value going forward. Someone who will remain nameless decided it was a good idea to drop Robbie Ray and Tyler O'Neill last year in the first couple of weeks.

The players I'm looking at this week are a mix of immediate adds and those who are just a tweak or two away from taking a step forward.

For the information, I'm going to focus on players dropped at the NFBC and CBS. Both Yahoo and Fantrax's add and drop numbers are based on the past day or so and can be dominated by streaming starters. CBS and NFBC are based on the past week. 

As a general rule, I will stay away from injured players and just focus on players expected to play.

Hitters

Bryson Stott (102 NFBC drops, -8% at CBS)

With Alec Bohm struggling in the field, the Phillies began starting Stott. While Stott's defense is fine, his bat is ice cold (.154/.185/.192 and 33% K%). Even with the struggles, he continued to get at-bats while Jean Segura was hurt.

When Segura returned to second base on Sunday, Stott headed to the bench with Johan Camargo (.668 OPS) at third base for his sixth straight start. So how can Stott regain his fantasy value?

While the 24-year-old came into the season with a balanced approach (power, bat, eye and speed), his batting eye has degraded. Striking out a third of the time is not ideal and it is because pitchers are pounding him with four-seam fastballs. He has a 17.3% SwStr% and the 12th-highest fastball velocity seen (95.3 mph) on those four-seamers. On the other hand, he hasn't swung and missed on a sinker/two-seamer yet.

I'd watch his five-game rolling average of four-seamers closely to see if the rate starts to drop. Opposing pitching will notice his adjustments before those of us analyzing the situation from our computers. Pounce once the turnaround starts. 

Josh Harrison (80 NFBC drops, -3% at CBS)

As a hitter, Harrison has historically provided little value and he continues to struggle this season by hitting .120/.154/.240. He could rebound since he just has a .136 BABIP along with a .243 xAVG and .497 xSLG. 

Even with some positive regression, the best that can be hoped for is 10 HR, 10 SB and a .275 AVG. So why is it that I have him rostered on most of my teams? It simply comes down to his triple-position eligibility (2B, 3B, and OF) with the third-base eligibility especially tough to find on the wire.

In my two leagues with hitting lineups that set for the week, Tout Wars and LABR, he's my only bench bat. At this point in the season, I'm trying to pull together an elite pitching staff and I want my bench full of arms. With both teams, I'm able to cover all positions if I find out about anyone getting hurt before the games lock on Monday. In the NFBC where there are Friday hitter moves, I'll have one or two more bench bats. Mid-week injuries always pop up.

I would expect he won't stay on the wire that long as a team could use the flexibility. He could possibly end up being the season's most added and dropped player.

Victor Robles (74 NFBC drops, -2% at CBS)

Of the 11 games the Nationals have played, Robles has started seven of them while batting ninth and playing center field. After struggling (.606 OPS) the past two seasons, he's taken his struggles to a new level with a .048/.130/.048 slash line this season.

The 24-year-old seems outmatched with 73% GB% and 32% K%, both career highs. When you have a .178 OPS, nothing is working to build on. But all that speed. 

He needs a reset. Be it in the minors (one option remaining) or with another team. In 2018, he was the fifth overall prospect in the game, and hopefully, someone can get him back on track. There is just so much talent going to waste.

Starters

Adrian Houser (69 NFBC drops, -3% at CBS)

I was a little surprised to see Houser being dropped with a 2.89 ERA. Besides the low ERA, there is not much to get excited over in his first two starts. While he has seven strikeouts, he's paired them with six walks. The walks have his WHIP at an unrosterable 1.50. Also, he's not allowed any home runs but his groundball rate is down from 59% to 36%. The combination has his xFIP and SIERA in the 5.00 range. 

Simply, he has to start throwing strikes to get his walks under control. His Zone% has dropped from 48% to 45% and his first-strike rate from 59% to 49%.

The fix is as simple as throwing strikes and that could change with his next start. Or not at all. I'd hold off adding him until he puts together two low-walk starts and then consider him as a streaming option. 

Zach Eflin (57 NFBC drops, -3% at CBS)

Simply ignore the .348 BABIP and 4.50 ERA and roster him in all 12-team or deeper leagues. His 7.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 are fine. I think those numbers can only improve as he gets further away from his September knee surgery. When he first had the surgery, reports stated he might not be ready by this point in the season, so he could still be healing/improving. 

Besides his results, no red flags stick out. His average fastball velocity is in line with last season. His pitch mix is about the same except he may have added a cutter (10% usage). 

Some improvement can already be seen this season. He had three strikeouts and two walks in his first start and four strikeouts and one walk in the second. 

My main issue with him is that he throws the kitchen sink. So far this season he's thrown six different pitch types between 44% and 8%. He's obviously breaking the Darvish Four Pitch Rule and could find a couple of pitches to junk. 

Even with the flaws, he's someone to consider rostering in all leagues. 

Reid Detmers (55 NFBC drops, -4% at CBS)

Detmers has been hit around. While he's only thrown 28 major-league innings, he has a 2.3 HR/9 and .333 BABIP. Additionally, and probably more worrisome in the long run, he's walking too many batters (4.5 BB/9 for his career). The walks and hits have his WHIP up at 1.75. There is no reason right now to have him in a lineup.

On the positive side, he's still striking out batters (9.8 K/9) and throwing hard (93 mph). The 22-year-old lefty attacks batters with a three-pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve) with almost all the damage against him coming against his fastball (career 1.364 vOPS). 

Additionally, he's not found a way to get out righties. So far this season they are hitting .381/.458/.714 against him. Lefties are down at .111/.200/.111.

He came to the majors with a ton of hype (top-100 prospect coming into the season) but has been a major disappointment. I can understand the drops and he should stay there until he first gets the walks under control. Then see if he can find a way to get out right-handed hitters. 

Relievers

Tyler Duffey (89 NFBC drops, -2% at CBS)

Currently, there is no way to know who the Twins' closer is. Duffey is in the mix. The deal is that the entire Twins team has not gotten a single save this season, so it's not time to be dropping Duffey.

The reason I'm high on Duffey is that the Twins have been using him in the team's highest-leverage situations. While Duffey has gotten hit around (.444 BABIP leading to a 6.00 ERA), all his ERA estimators are under 3.00. 

I know Jhoan Duran has been the talk of the town with his 16.5 K/9, but the Twins haven't been saving him for high-leverage moments. 

If anyone is looking for a cheap potential decent closer on a decent team, it's Duffey. 

Paul Sewald (69 NFBC drops, -4% at CBS)

Almost everything I wrote about Duffey applies to Sewald. Sewald had been great (10.1 K/9, 0.00 WHIP) and thrown in the third-highest-leverage situations for the Mariners. The team stated that it would go with a bullpen-by-committee and Drew Steckenrider and Diego Castillo have each gotten a save. 

I think the committee will continue and Sewald will end up with 8-12 saves on the season.

Sewald, and several over part-time closers, will eventually be universally rostered in 15-team leagues and possibly even 12-teamers. Right now, new starting pitcher values are being determined and fantasy managers are fighting over them. Once only the scrubs are left, it'll be time to roster good, high-leverage middle relievers. With the ghost runner rule, these stud non-closers can almost be five-category contributors if correctly utilized.

There is definitely a scenario where Sewald becomes unrosterable, but when a fantasy manager gets to the point of adding middle relievers, don't forget the bullpen arms that are on teams going with a closer committee (see Tampa) and roster them for saves and wins.