This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Tonight: Expert MLB Picks and Player Props for Monday, September 4
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Houston Astros OVER 4.5 Runs (-120 DraftKings)
The Astros are in a small rut having lost all three games to the Yankees over the weekend and now have to travel on the road. That's really the only bad news for this afternoon's game. They will face southpaw Tim Heaney today and there's a lot working in Houston's favor. Jose Altuve was back in the lineup in his usual leadoff spot and has a .931 OPS against Heany in 35 plate appearances. The Astros overall have had great success against Heaney with Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Mauricio Dubon and Jose Abreu going a combined 39-for-119 (.328) with nine home runs. The Astros remain one of the better hitting teams against left-handed pitching with a .352 wOBA against lefties this season, second only to Atlanta.
Best Team Prop For Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
- Houston Astros OVER 4.5 Runs
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Runs (-118 FanDuel)
The Rockies have more or less thrown in the towel this season and don't have a lot of bats to fear in their lineup today. They've been awful offensively this season on the road and they'll get a decent starter in Merrill Kelly tonight in the desert. Since the start of August the Rockies have a .268 wOBA (second-worst) with a 32.8 percent strikeout rate (worst) and a 4.3 percent walk rate (worst) against right-handed pitching on the road. Kelly has been especially good at home this season with a 2.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a 10.4 K/9 rate, all excellent numbers. Kelly just got bombed by the Dodgers in his last outing (seven earned runs, five innings) but the good new is three other times he's allowed more than three runs in a start, he's followed each up with an outing of only one runs. Peter Lambert has a 4.95 ERA this season and has allowed at least one home run in five straight starts. I'd rather lay the 1.5 runs here at this juice rather than just taking the money line at around -260.
Best Bets For Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Runs (-118 FanDuel)
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
Anthony Santander Anytime Home Run (+300 FanDuel), Ryan Mountcastle Anytime Home Run (+390 FanDuel/DraftKings)
You can click on my articles from the last four weeks to prove this but I started an experiment taking two teammates and picking both of their anytime home run odds. Each week, one of the two players has hit a home run and made a nice profit. I'll try to keep that going this week and look at the game in Los Angeles where the Orioles will face Kenny Rosenburg, a career minor leaguer. Rosenburg hasn't allowed a home run in either of his two appearances (seven innings) for the Angels but an overall look at him suggest that's been lucky. He allowed five home runs in his final two minor league starts (10 innings) and has given up 14 in 100 Triple-A innings this season. Mountcastle has 12 home runs in 143 plate appearances this season against left-handed pitching while Santander has 15 home runs in 316 plate appearances over the last two seasons.
Best Player Props For Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
- Anthony Santander Anytime Home Run (+300 FanDuel), Ryan Mountcastle Anytime Home Run (+390 FanDuel/DraftKings)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
Houston Astros OVER 4.5 Runs (-120 DraftKings)
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Runs (-118 FanDuel)
Anthony Santander Anytime Home Run (+300 FanDuel), Ryan Mountcastle Anytime Home Run (+390 FanDuel/DraftKings)
