Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the AL West

With pitchers and catchers reporting, baseball season is sneaking up on us, and, cross your fingers, it looks like an interesting season! For most leagues, draft day is on the horizon, and "wait until next year" is now. That's okay. We will be ready. After a brutal season of generally inexplicable meltdowns, I'm hoping for more normalcy this year. As in the past, I'll cover one division each week, and hopefully, we should have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2024 season. Things will surely change as spring training progresses, but we handle those changes on the fly. Remember, the Musings are intended to be interactive. Ask questions, and share your opinions. That's what we're here for. Let's get to it and look at the:

American League West

Houston Astros – For years the Astros boasted the class – both hitting and pitching – of the AL West, but others, notably Seattle and Texas, have cut into that advantage. However, I wouldn't run up any white flags. They aren't completely without quality. They will be led by the ageless Justin Verlander who just keeps plugging at age 40, followed by a couple fairly well-regarded younger arms. Framber Valdez, the only lefty in the group, has proven he can be a very useful starter in the rotation. Cristian Javier is right behind him. Both have very good stuff, and they can throw strikes. I wouldn't be surprised to see improvement from them this season. I have always liked Hunter Brown even though he struggled in the second half last year. He's considered a sleeper. The rotation will be rounded out by J.P. France and Jose Urquidy. France has the higher upside, but he needs to miss more bats. I could see taking a flyer on him. Depth could be an issue early, as Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia will miss the first half due to injuries. McCullers is tough when healthy, but that doesn't happen often.

The Astros bullpen has also been top shelf with exceptional depth, and it got better this offseason. Ryan Pressly was an exceptional set-up man and never missed a beat when asked to handle the ninth inning. He'll now go back to setting up new acquisition, top shelf closer Josh Hader. Add in Rafael Montero who looks like he has found consistency and should serve as another key set-up guy with Bryan Abreu. A couple other names of note, Kendall Graveman will miss 2024 following shoulder surgery, and where does former hot prospect Forrest Whitley fit in?

Recapping the Astros:

The arm to own: Ride with Verlander. He's getting older but he isn't showing it yet.

He'll likely be overpriced: I like McCullers when he's healthy, but that's never guaranteed.

Best of the bullpen: Hader is an ace and the best of an excellent bullpen group.

Los Angeles Angels – The Angels were loaded on the mound and at the plate with stars like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, yet neither has a World Series ring to show for it. In fact, they haven't challenged for a playoff spot for years. It's pretty simple. The Angels' pitching of late has been on the whole awful. Their No. 1 starter, without question, was Ohtani, but he missed at least the pitching part of a couple seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. Trout returns, but Ohtani is gone, and the supporting cast is weak once more. That leaves the necessary heavy workloads to others, but they have yet to find the quality innings they need. Reid Detmers has shown some promise, but he's still really a mid-rotation guy. I do like the future of youngster Griffin Canning. He flashes some pretty good stuff at times, but I'm not convinced he is ready to step into a leadership role. The next spots belong to so-so Patrick Sandoval and another sometimes-capable arm in Tyler Anderson. Now we're down to Chase Silseth and newly signed Zach Plesac – not exactly star material. This staff is not going to challenge the better teams in the division. Drafting an Angels' starter is not for the faint of heart. Maybe you'll get lucky, but a contingency plan is a good idea.

For the past few seasons, the Angels' shaky starting pitchers have turned the game over to an equally shaky bullpen. Carlos Estevez looks like the favorite to close and they have a few semi-capable middle relievers led by southpaw Matt Moore and followed by Robert Stephenson, and Jose Cisnero more or less fits as a set-up guy, but they don't really have a proven closer … unless Estevez makes a bigger splash than I anticipate. They also have one of the biggest arms around in Ben Joyce, but he is still unproven.

Recapping the Angels:

The arm to own: Detmers has the highest ceiling, but remember he's still learning.

He'll likely be overpriced: I don't think any of the others are likely to pay dividends.

Best of the bullpen: I'm mildly interested in taking a flyer on Estevez.
 

Oakland A's – The first two teams we looked at in this division offered some promise or a lot of question marks, but now that we move on to Oakland, things seem to get a bit more predictable. They have a collection of back-of-the-rotation starting pitchers (that's probably generous), led by 30-year-old Paul Blackburn. He has a modest arm and modest command. I'll pass. Maybe the A's pitcher to own is newcomer Ross Stripling? He's not awful, but he's better suited to spot starts/swingman. Can old-timer Alex Wood share some experience with this young staff? Label me a skeptic. Now we look at guys like JP Sears, Luis Medina and eventually Ken Waldichuk. They have one thing in common – I don't want to own any of them. I do actually like Kyle Muller a little bit. He came over from Atlanta, and while his brief trials have not been the best, he did post solid Triple-A numbers including a lot of strikeouts, so he is a possibility. The best thing you can say about this rotation is they make half their starts in pitcher heaven.

The A's once featured Liam Hendriks as their closer. No more. And there is nobody in this pen to confuse with Hendriks. If I had to name a likely closer, I'd reluctantly toss Dany Jimenez' name into the mix, just ahead of veteran Trevor Gott, but to be honest this has the makings of a committee. Jimenez actually did some closing for Oakland in 2022 and he did reasonably well at times, but he and Zach Jackson – both needed to have any hope of an effective bullpen – are attempting to return from shoulder injuries that plagued them in recent years. Want a dark horse? Try fireballer Mason Miller. He has closer stuff and may find himself working the ninth inning.

Recapping the A's:

The arm to own: Maybe Stripling or if you want to stash and hope, maybe Muller.

He'll likely be overpriced: Blackburn doesn't provide enough upside in my eyes.

Best of the bullpen: Logic says Jimenez, but I'm rolling the dice with Miller. 
 

Seattle Mariners – Now it gets interesting. The Mariners have been quietly but steadily building a very strong, contending team. And they might be there. Let's look at the pieces. A couple years ago they got Luis Castillo (he's a legit No. 1). Two younger guys have made a huge impact the last couple years, and more help is on the way. George Kirby and Logan Gilbert were major contributors in 2022/23, but I still see room to grow in both. I give a very slight edge to Kirby based primarily on his command. The kids on the way are Bryan Woo, Bryce Mille, and Emerson Hancock. It's probably not fair to tag them "on the way," as Woo and Miller contributed last season, but they have room to improve. Once Hancock (who is recovering from shoulder trouble) earns a starting spot, and if the others even approach their collective ceilings, the Mariners will be a serious threat in the AL West. I want to throw one more name in the mix. The M's acquired Jackson Kowar from Atlanta in the offseason. He was once highly touted but has been awful in brief trials. They paid a price for him. Beware.

The bullpen probably has slightly more to prove than the rotation. That said, I'm about to name my favorite to close – Andres Munoz. His stuff is pure filth. That would leave Matt Brash (his stuff is equally filthy, but he tends to be a bit inconsistent) in the primary set-up role along with lefty Gabe Speier. They also have Trent Thornton and the recently acquired Gregory Santos providing depth. Specific roles should sort out quickly.

Recapping the Mariners:

The arm to own: Their starters are all appealing, but Castillo is the real ace.

He'll likely be overpriced: Probably Miller because I will want any of the others.

Best of the bullpen: Munoz is a future fireman all-star, and his time is here.

Texas Rangers – We conclude our assessment of preseason pitching in the AL West with the Texas Rangers. And they will enter the season with an injury list to dream about. Let's start with Jacob deGrom. When he's on the mound, he's the best in the game (IMHO). But he hasn't broken 100 innings in four years. Max Scherzer joins deGrom on the IL. Tyler Mahle is probably a fourth starter, but he too will miss the first half. So, the question is, can they stay close until they get healthy? They're not completely hopeless. How about Nathan Eovaldi? He's not bad, but he has made over 25 starts just once since 2014. Next up is Jon Gray. He escaped Colorado a couple years ago and has posted decent numbers since arriving in Texas. He could perhaps build on that. Andrew Heaney is an interesting case. He added a useful slider in 2022, but he has bounced around without taking the hoped-for next step. WIth so many injuries to the staff, Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford will undoubtedly be a part of the rotation, but they only fit as lower upside No. 4 or No. 5 starters. There is some potential help down on the farm in guys like Jack Leiter, but he has been a disappointment and is not likely to be up before midseason, if then. Buying Rangers is a leap of faith that they will provide innings.

I still think closer Jose Leclerc is a potential bright spot in the bullpen. I was high on him when it was apparent the Rangers needed a new end-gamer a couple years ago, and I continued to see a lot to like when he was struggling. I'm not ready to give up on him. If Leclerc should stumble, look for 36-year-old Kirby Yates to step in. Another name to know here is Jonathan Hernandez. He's a ninth-inning option, but I think he will be more useful in a primary set-up role. Hopefully his shoulder will cooperate. Others being counted upon in what looks like a pen with some potential include veteran David Robertson, Josh Sborz, and maybe Brock Burke. Given the rotation health concerns, the bullpen will probably be heavily relied upon.

Recapping the Rangers:

The arm to own: Stash deGrom and pray he gives you 100-plus innings.

He'll likely be overpriced: Heaney is burning up chances to prove himself.

Best of the bullpen: Leclerc has the tools. He just needs consistency.

Next week we'll evaluate pitching staffs in the NL West.