Mound Musings: Disappointments Analyzed

Mound Musings: Disappointments Analyzed

This article is part of our Mound Musings series.

We are now into August. This is typically the time I try to sort through my pitching staff, and take a good long look at any underperformers. Two-thirds of the way through the season, meaning most starting pitchers have taken about 20 turns. That should be long enough for the majority to work through any mechanical issues, or get healthy, or build up normal arm strength/endurance. There are exceptions, so every dog might not get the heave-ho, but I am at that point in the season where I need a viable reason to accept poor performance. And, is this a competitive situation or wait 'til next year?

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have made us wonder, "what was I thinking" as we reflect on draft day. Yes, injuries are ridiculous – did you know there were more Tommy John surgeries in 2023 than in the entire decade of the 1990s?  Now that is ridiculous. So, are these pitchers who should hit the waiver wire, or is there some hope, making them possibilities to still help in the title chase, or, at the very least, could they be favorable contract keepers in a keeper/dynasty format?

Let's take a look at some significant 2024 underperformers:

Trevor Rogers (Orioles, 2-10, 4.76 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) – Competition was fierce for this top spot on the disappointments list, even though they aren't really in any specific order. I have just been on his bandwagon for a long time. I

We are now into August. This is typically the time I try to sort through my pitching staff, and take a good long look at any underperformers. Two-thirds of the way through the season, meaning most starting pitchers have taken about 20 turns. That should be long enough for the majority to work through any mechanical issues, or get healthy, or build up normal arm strength/endurance. There are exceptions, so every dog might not get the heave-ho, but I am at that point in the season where I need a viable reason to accept poor performance. And, is this a competitive situation or wait 'til next year?

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have made us wonder, "what was I thinking" as we reflect on draft day. Yes, injuries are ridiculous – did you know there were more Tommy John surgeries in 2023 than in the entire decade of the 1990s?  Now that is ridiculous. So, are these pitchers who should hit the waiver wire, or is there some hope, making them possibilities to still help in the title chase, or, at the very least, could they be favorable contract keepers in a keeper/dynasty format?

Let's take a look at some significant 2024 underperformers:

Trevor Rogers (Orioles, 2-10, 4.76 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) – Competition was fierce for this top spot on the disappointments list, even though they aren't really in any specific order. I have just been on his bandwagon for a long time. I watched him several times in 2021 and he genuinely looked like he was experiencing a breakout year. Good stuff, good location, good mound presence. The past couple seasons have been very different. The basics still seem alright, but the results have been anything but. I have come to the conclusion that Rogers got out of synch – it happens - and as he tried different things to fix it, the problems multiplied. Now he's in Baltimore, and I do believe he'll come out of it, but right now he is lost, and can't find his way. I still believe. Verdict: Hold onto him.

Yusei Kikuchi (Astros, 5-9, 4.62 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) – He was the second pitcher on the list I got to watch, and in the first inning I found myself thinking pitching is dead. He got knocked around bad in that first inning, then completely turned things around. He has been generally inconsistent, showing flashes of ace stuff but reverting back with a need for better command. It looked like all was right with the world early this season with him having excellent results the first three months. Then it appeared he backslid a bit. The command was less consistent and the movement wasn't so crisp. The velocity is down, but only slightly, and he has experienced some bad luck (.354 BABIP), but he can look horrible one inning and untouchable the next. Verdict: Hung jury.

Kenta Maeda (Tigers, 2-5, 6.72 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) – I wanted to make sure I included Maeda or someone like him (the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks fits here, too) because pitchers of this ilk almost always rely on two things. Without overwhelming stuff, they require pinpoint command, the ability to throw any pitch, in any count, to an exact location, and since there will be contact, a superior defense is imperative. Maeda falls short on all counts. His command used to be pretty good but it can be spotty now, and the Tigers defense isn't great. With a much lower strikeout rate, these guys have limited fantasy value even when things are going well. Verdict: Pull the chute.

Gerrit Cole (Yankees, 3-2, 5.40 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) – I decided to keep long-term injuries off this list. I used roughly a half season, so Cole snuck in. Cole has had several exceptional seasons including last year, his fifth season of 200-plus innings, where he walked away with a Cy Young award. Then he missed three months of this season with nerve irritation in his elbow. He returned in late June but he hasn't been 100 percent. He has had a start skipped (reportedly general fatigue) and he hasn't pitched deep into games. Elevated pitch counts have been a problem, and he's not microscopically hitting his spots (as illustrated with him allowing more hits than innings, which would never happen under normal circumstances). It's only a matter of time. Verdict: Hold onto him.

Griffin Canning (Angels, 4-10, 5.10 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) – True believers always think an arm will come along to lead them to the promised land. Canning is not a true ace, but he has the stuff to lead an Angels pitching staff which hasn't been good in longer than I can remember (and that's a lonnng time). He has made a lot of trips to the IL, albeit short stays, so maybe he just has trouble finding and staying in a groove. He doesn't miss enough bats – although it appears he could – and he has always been vulnerable to the long ball. His stuff is pretty good, and he has a repertoire that should allow him to fare better. I'm sure you can see from my description, it's hard to put a finger on. Maybe it's a strange Anaheim Curse? I still like him, but … Verdict: Hung jury.

Frankie Montas (Brewers, 5-8, 5.03 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) – I always get curious when a pitcher with an obviously live arm keeps moving from organization to organization. That's the case with Montas. He has an exceptionally live arm – he sits mid-90s and he can generate plenty of movement, yet he's pitching for his fourth team in three years. Part of that is contract status, but I'm pretty sure there are pitching coaches out there who think they have the key to Frankie's success. I've been a believer (and paid for it), but he still gets behind in counts too often and struggles with runners on base. I do believe it's there, but he needs to show me to get me back on his wagon. Verdict: Pull the chute.

Patrick Corbin (Nationals, 2-12, 5.88 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) – I've been a Corbin fan for a long time, riding him through his best years, but those days may be over. The most frustrating part is you can usually tell what you will get on any given day after only a few pitches. If he is spotting the fastball for effect, and the slider is crisp as it darts out of the strike zone at the last second, sit back and enjoy the game. If those things aren't happening, you might want to switch channels. His command has been erratic. That suggests a need for major mechanical adjustments, but there has been time enough to accomplish that. One side of me says be patient, but the other side says your ERA and WHIP can't take this kind of meltdown. Verdict: Pull the chute.

Miles Mikolas (Cardinals, 8-9, 5.12 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) – This is my own personal favorite enigma. In my analysis, his stuff and repertoire should make him one of the more reliable pitchers in the game. Some days we see just that, a virtually unhittable, dominating figure on the mound. Some days. Then there are "those" days. He still throws strikes better than most, but he may actually be filling the strike zone a bit too full, resulting in a lot of hard contact. That, and he too has experienced some bad luck (often heightened by that frequent hard contact). It's all there, I can't in good faith write him off, but his track record suggests you may get that clinker sometimes. He was so steady just a couple years ago. Verdict: Hold onto him.

I tried to exclude pitchers with significant injuries. There are plenty of those who, if considered for the list above, would result in a list beyond compare. Max Scherzer certainly qualifies, as do Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, Kodai Senga, Spencer Strider, and well, you get the idea. The list goes on and on.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

  • Since early July, the Reds' Hunter Greene has allowed one or fewer runs in six consecutive starts (that's a franchise record). He has tossed 95 or more pitches and pitched into the sixth inning or beyond in each of those outings. He is threatening to take the art of pitching back a few decades. Bravo!
  • Minnesota's Bailey Ober has reeled off eight consecutive quality starts. He has just modest stuff, but he throws everything for good strikes, and perhaps more importantly, being so tall (6'7"), and with the extension he gets with his motion, his fastball appears to be a couple ticks faster than it really is.
  • Speaking of settling into a groove, Mets' southpaw Sean Manaea has turned in a couple gems. Over his last two starts, he has pitched 14 shutout innings, allowing just eight hits while striking out 21 and walking just one. I watched parts of the starts against Minnesota and St. Louis. They were legitimate dominance.
  • The Royals' Brady Singer is one I have watched for quite some time, and he is quietly coming into his own. His command is still sometimes spotty but it is improving, and that improvement has brought about more strikeouts. He is now on a better team, so his fantasy value could increase dramatically.
  • One serious disappointment pitched reasonably well when he was on the mound. Yu Darvish went on the injured list with a balky elbow in late May. Just as he was getting past that, he was switched to the restricted list with "personal problems." Nothing official but rumors are he could be back late this month.
  • The White Sox best player, Garrett Crochet, made sure everyone knew he wanted to cash in if he was traded, so he's still on the South Side. Him staying did not stop the Sox from tying an American League record. They managed to lose 21 straight, equaling the 1988 Orioles mark for futility.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Diamondbacks sacked closer Paul Sewald after he blew four saves in July. He'll pitch in lower-leverage situations for the time being as A.J. Puk, my guess, takes over the ninth inning, backed up by Kevin Ginkel and/or Ryan Thompson. I'll admit, I typically don't pay a lot of attention to Rockies' relief pitchers, but one has recently caught my eye. Young righty Victor Vodnik has a chance to be a decent closer if he throws enough strikes. I don't think the Orioles came out of the trade deadline with an answer to inconsistent closer Craig Kimbrel, which means we could see a little more of Yennier Cano in the ninth inning. Milwaukee welcomed back Devin Williams from the injured list, and he should slot back in as their go to guy right away. The Angels briefly tinkered with Hunter Strickland closing when everyone knows they want Ben Joyce to take the ball and run for it. Joyce finally got a chance last weekend and recorded four outs for his first career save. The Dodgers have employed a flock of pitchers in the ninth inning (10 different relievers have saves) but their best might have just arrived off the injured list. Don't be surprised if Brusdar Graterol works his way into closing duties. Update: He lasted all of eight pitches before straining his hamstring.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Brad Johnson
For more than 30 years, pitching guru Brad "Bogfella" Johnson has provided insightful evaluation and analysis of pitchers to a wide variety of fantasy baseball websites, webcasts and radio broadcasts. He joined RotoWire in 2011 with his popular Bogfella's Notebook.
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