This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
I'm always talking about some pitchers hinting they might be ready to take a step forward as the season progresses. We're always on the lookout for these guys, and I wish there could be more of them, but the truth is, a lot of pitchers posting surprisingly good numbers early in the season are just teasing us. Maybe it's time to discuss them?
Of course, the trick is to separate the pretenders from the real possibilities. There are almost always many more pretenders than pitchers likely to help your fantasy team, but it can be a challenge to sort them out. Therefore, I thought I would mention a few guys who have become somewhat popular adds to fantasy rosters, but whom I am avoiding, at least for now, pending additional samples that suggests the better numbers are real.
I'm staying away from these pitchers:
Ranger Suarez (Phillies) – I might as well start with one of the highest ranked pitchers in the game this year. I'll preface this by saying I am not necessarily predicting a complete collapse by Suarez, but rather a return to normalcy. He currently boasts a microscopic 1.72 ERA, and despite him having decent stuff with pinpoint command, I don't see it continuing for the entire season. Yes, command is his strong suit, and that should keep him respectable, but to me he always looks more hittable than he shows – probably due to some deception in his motion – and he pitches in front of
I'm always talking about some pitchers hinting they might be ready to take a step forward as the season progresses. We're always on the lookout for these guys, and I wish there could be more of them, but the truth is, a lot of pitchers posting surprisingly good numbers early in the season are just teasing us. Maybe it's time to discuss them?
Of course, the trick is to separate the pretenders from the real possibilities. There are almost always many more pretenders than pitchers likely to help your fantasy team, but it can be a challenge to sort them out. Therefore, I thought I would mention a few guys who have become somewhat popular adds to fantasy rosters, but whom I am avoiding, at least for now, pending additional samples that suggests the better numbers are real.
I'm staying away from these pitchers:
Ranger Suarez (Phillies) – I might as well start with one of the highest ranked pitchers in the game this year. I'll preface this by saying I am not necessarily predicting a complete collapse by Suarez, but rather a return to normalcy. He currently boasts a microscopic 1.72 ERA, and despite him having decent stuff with pinpoint command, I don't see it continuing for the entire season. Yes, command is his strong suit, and that should keep him respectable, but to me he always looks more hittable than he shows – probably due to some deception in his motion – and he pitches in front of a weak defensive team. In my opinion, now might be a good time to find a trade partner. His value is at its highest.
Kutter Crawford (Red Sox) – Crawford may take a more significant dip in performance. Most analysts (including me) are calling him one of the biggest surprises of the season so far. His WHIP of 1.07 and ERA of a miraculous 1.75 have him leading a very, very surprising Red Sox staff. I think we'll see his BABIP drift higher, and as the weather gets warmer, the batted balls could start traveling farther. His velocity is down a tick, and while he does get pretty good movement on his pitches, his command of the zone can be spotty. I just think there are too many red flags to deal with, and I am going to steer clear of him. Maybe he's found some new magic, but I'm not convinced.
Javier Assad (Cubs) – I'll admit I have vacillated between modest optimism and light pessimism since Assad arrived. He features a decent four-seam fastball with an adequate slider and change-up, but I feel like his success is being boosted by hitters having trouble picking him up. The first time or two through the batting order he elicits quite a bit of weak contact, but things heat up as he pitches deeper into games. He can throw strikes, which would be a big plus, and he can miss bats at a fair rate, but I think we might see an increase in his BABIP and hard-hit rate as he logs more innings. I could be wrong on this one. He could continue to baffle hitters often enough to succeed, but I remain somewhat skeptical – at least today. That outlook could change.
Ronel Blanco (Astros) – The 30-year-old Blanco came out of nowhere this year – and I'm pretty convinced he could return there as the season progresses. Before this year he had slightly less than 100 innings spread across parts of three MLB seasons. In those innings he posted a lackluster 3.71 ERA with a soft 1.30 WHIP. This season, buoyed by an unsustainable .189 BABIP, his ERA is 2.09. His velocity has been on the decline, his pitches feature just average movement (at best), and the signs point to a regression relatively soon. If I owned him, he's another I would slip into the trade bait list.
Nestor Cortes (Yankees) – Cortes has been one of the hotter buzz boys the past couple years. Pitching effectively, even if not every time out, in the Big Apple will generate attention. Don't get me wrong. I like Cortes, but I like him best as a swingman capable of multiple relief innings and an occasional spot start. He has modest stuff, and he benefits from a deceptive delivery that makes it appear pitches get on the batter more quickly, but overexposure is not going to be his friend. He's throwing more strikes these days, which certainly helps, but I think hitters will continue to catch up to him, leading to even more of his biggest detractor: giving up homeruns.
Paul Blackburn (Athletics) – Blackburn is an interesting study. His fastball certainly isn't overpowering (91.8 mph), but he does generate relatively good movement with it. His secondary pitches are just average or at least close to it. That may be enough to get by in a starting role in the short term, but I am concerned that teams will sooner or later start recognizing the fastball and sit on it until they get something in the hitting zone. He does throw strikes, which helps, but his pedestrian stuff and general inability to miss many bats overall, is a red flag, so beware, his BABIP could be on the rise, especially if his extreme groundball rate drops. He needs the support of good gloves behind him. It may be about time to collect your dividends and sell high on him.
I suppose it shouldn't be too surprising that there are some mediocre (or worse) pitchers enjoying strong starts to the season. After all, the composite batting average is still extremely low, and homeruns are actually down a bit. Does that mean pitching is getting better? I don't think so. It means the hitting approach of the day – "Close your eyes and swing hard in case you hit it" – is having an even bigger impact. Pitchers, for their part, have realized they don't have to throw strikes. Just throw the ball in the neighborhood of the strike zone.
Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:
- I enjoyed the MLB debut of the Mets' Christian Scott last Saturday. He clearly started out making sure he was throwing strikes, which were smacked for hits by the first three batters. Okay, let's adjust. Now we'll throw quality strikes. They couldn't really touch him. This guy is going to be a very good one.
- Also, last weekend we got to watch another dazzling performance by the splitter king, Toronto's Kevin Gausman. The pitch might move the most of any pitch in baseball, so much so it's nearly impossible to hit when he's on. Unfortunately, it can also make the strike zone hard to find, running up Gausman's pitch counts.
- The Reds' Andrew Abbott doesn't get a lot of attention, but he has allowed more than two earned runs in just one start this year and that was his first start of the season. I watched part of his last start, and he looked pretty solid again against a good hitting Phillies team. I need to track him more closely.
- I was tempted to include the Rays' Zack Littell on the future faders list above, but I decided against it. He still reminds me of a relief pitcher at times as his secondary stuff is pretty marginal, but he spots everything so well, and I find it very difficult to dismiss any pitcher the team touches. Maybe a minor fade.
- The Brewers are the true epitome of fantasy pitching question marks. Injuries have been truly devastating, but there has been hope that Freddy Peralta could help keep them afloat. But even in his better starts I see some worrisome signs. Six walks in his last outing against the Cubs is not the answer.
- I can't do it. I just can't. I watched Toronto's Alek Manoah making his first start since the disaster that was his 2023 season. He rang up some strikeouts early on, mostly on a sharper slider, but he also missed his spot way too often. There were some potential positives, but not enough for me to endorse him.
Endgame Odyssey:
An interesting turn of events. The Padres signed top Korean closer Woo-suk Go last offseason. He struggled this spring and was sent to Triple-A, then later he was demoted to Double-A. Now he's been dealt to Miami. Is this one of those "changes in latitudes" scenarios? I'll be watching very closely. I understand it, but as a fantasy owner I still hate it. A few days ago, Minnesota's closer Jhoan Duran pitched the eighth inning against the heart of the order, leaving bread crumbs on the table for Cole Sands in the ninth. Oh well. It looks like the Cubs' Adbert Alzolay has pitched himself out of the closer's job, at least for now. I have never thought he was a great option, but current closer Hector Neris makes me extremely nervous. In Milwaukee, Abner Uribe is in the minors (and suspended), and his presumed heir, Joel Payamps has been ceding saves to Trevor Megill recently. This is getting interesting – at least until Devin Williams returns, probably around mid-late July. IMHO Uribe has the most raw ability, but he needs to settle down and rebuild trust. The Dodgers placed Evan Phillips on the IL with a slight hamstring strain. He's not expected to miss much time, but Daniel Hudson should pick up any save opportunities.
